Republic of China give a road map of areas deemed critical. Several of the provisions strengthen the stability, continuity and robustness of governance. Beyond these, I looked for any deviations from expectations, for example, on State-owned enterprise reform or local government financing. I also looked for any reaction to the increased push-back against China’s rising global capabilities from certain countries. GT: In recent years, the Chinese government has made more efforts to make Two Sessions’ agenda better meet public expectations. For example, the government will cooperate with media websites to conduct surveys about top policy areas that the public wants the Two Sessions to address. How do you evaluate such efforts? Kuhn: Irrespective of the nature of the political system or ideology, transparency in governance is the best way for government to deliver effective, efficient programs, and enhance credibility. The Chinese government has been striving to increase transparency, which deserves praise. The Two Sessions are a vehicle for the government to communicate with the people and engage them through media in dealing with all the critical issues. TWOSESSIONS 2018 GT: How do you see the political belief of China that democracy should meet the real or fundamental needs of the public? Kuhn: Government performance and democracy are not the same. The former is indeed assessed by alleviating poverty, reducing pollution, improving healthcare and the like. Democracy is the public participation of common people in the complex process of governance. Thus, true democracy is much broader than one-person-one-vote. It includes, primarily, the capacity to provide substantive input on complex Illustration: Liu Rui/GT issues and to provide oversight in the management of officials. GT: China for long has argued that democracy or any other political mechanism should be developed on the basis of a country’s specific condition. How do you see this belief, as well as its practice? Kuhn: Certainly, political systems differ, even between countries that have the same ideology. Nonetheless, there are great commonalities in the goals and objectives shared by all countries and people. I suspect that over time, measured in not less than decades and perhaps even centuries, there will be a convergence of systems toward what I call with a smile, “Optimizationism” – leaders, officials, executives making myriad decisions every day to optimize outcomes without thinking of the ideology. GT: There’s talk about China’s unique system of multiparty cooperation and political consultation led by the Communist Party of China (CPC) during the Two Sessions. How do you observe this system? Kuhn: The benefits of a one-party-rule are apparent: the coherence of policies, rapid decision-making and formulation of strategies that require long-term consistency for long-term commitment. But all systems of governance have trade-offs, and two challenges of oneparty-rule are assuring that all rational points of view, including dissenting ones, are included in the decision-making process; and systemic checks and balances for oversight of officials at all levels of government. China’s system of multi-party cooperation and consultation, led by the CPC, is a political innovation in including inputs and ideas from diverse segments of society, while still maintaining harmony of spirit and consistency in policies. But because of its scale and power, the CPC, which is the ruling party, has a higher obligation to pay attention to other parties and voices. A true democracy is measured by how the majority treats the minority. GT: As a decades-long observer of China, what do you think the constitutional amendment will bring to the country? Kuhn: This constitutional amendment is all about strengthening China’s system of governance, especially the Party’s leadership of the country and President Xi Jinping’s leadership of the Party and the nation. Going by the whiplash of Western reactions, one could be forgiven for assuming that the amendment is all about abolishing term limits of the president and vice president. In fact, there are 21 clauses in the constitutional amendment and to understand where China is going, one must gauge the meaning and intent of all of them. Xi has been consistent in respecting, indeed in championing, China’s Constitution, and by now amending it, he underscores the congruity between the realities of how China is governed and what the Constitution says – thus bolstering Xi’s commitment to the Rule of Law. Establishing the National Supervisory Law and Commissions, expanding the anti-corruption campaign to all public organs and organizations, reaffirms Xi’s commitment to enhancing the rule of law. As for term limits, it is not that Xi will hold the formal titles of leadership for life, but that he will hold real leadership long enough to bring about China’s national rejuvenation and establish Chinese type democratic norms. All factors considered, because of China’s special conditions and Xi’s special capabilities, abolishing term limits may be good for China. It is commonly said that China’s system of governance can ensure stability and consistency, which is a necessary requirement for advancing reform. GT: What do you see as the underlying reason for the institutional restructuring of the government passed during the Two Sessions? Kuhn: The sweeping restructuring of the Chinese government streamlines the bureaucracy, eliminates institutional conflicts of interest between government bodies, aligns authority with responsibility, and, significantly, enhances the leadership of the Party in the management as well as the oversight of the government. Although the restructuring has multiple motivations, a prime driver is to support China’s continuing development under complex conditions – a slowing economy, uncertain financial risk, unacceptable pollution, the special demands of innovation. Given China’s challenges at home and abroad the government restructure is timely. Some media outlets describe it as a “reshuffle,” as if the random rearrangement of a deck of cards. I beg to differ. This restructuring is as deliberate as it is far-reaching – and planned precisely to address a host of contradictions. The outcome is to strengthen CPC’s leadership throughout the country. In fact, deepening reform is now defined, for state as well as for Party institutions, as strengthening the CPC’s leadership in every sector. The aim is consistency and uniformity in implementing policy. The announcement of the restructuring followed swiftly after the adoption by the National People’s Congress of the constitutional amendment, and although both were long in the works, their rapid-fire sequence serves to underscore the preeminence of President Xi in setting the new agenda, and the power of the Party in implementing the new policies. GT: Environment has always been a heated topic at the Two Sessions. How do you see the prospect of green development in China? Kuhn: I have been following China’s environmental problems for over two decades, and until recent years under President Xi. While officials would of course decry pollution, it only became progressively worse. Companies flouted the law. The minuscule fines were a small price for not worrying about the cost of controlling pollution. Officials were loath to risk impeding economic growth. Today is dramatically different. President Xi has raised ecology and environment to the highest category of national priorities. Ecological progress is among the five top goals (along with economic, political, cultural and social progress). Green is the third of the New (Five Major) Concepts of Development. The change in attitudes toward pollution is stunning. For example, fines for corporate pollution now hurt. Page Editor: yujincui@globaltimes.com.cn Monday, November 21, 2016 A11 Core strength Robert Lawrence Kuhn says those who see China’s designation of Xi Jinping as core leader to be a variation of strongman rule misunderstand its significance for a people navigating their way through huge challenges When, at a recent party plenum, President Xi Jinping (���) was designated as “core” of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, some Western media were quick to condemn the rise of a new “strongman”. While recognising the significance of Xi as the core was correct, conjuring up visions of an emerging dictator was not. I recalled my meeting with Xi years earlier, when he was still party secretary of Zhejiang (��) province. Even then he was criticising “empty talk” and advising, “We should never overestimate our accomplishments or indulge ourselves in our achievements”. I took note of how Xi stressed, “We need to assess ourselves objectively”. Hardly, in retrospect, the ruminations of a gestating dictator. To understand why Xi is now the core, one must appreciate the complex challenges of our times. China is now facing multiple challenges: domestically – slow growth, industrial overcapacity, endemic pollution, imbalanced development, income disparity, social injustice, social service demands; and, internationally – wars, regional conflicts, sluggish economies, volatile markets, trade protectionism, ethnic clashes, terrorism, geopolitical rivalries, and territorial disputes in the South and East China seas. Most critically, because China must deepen its reforms to achieve its oft-promised goal of a “moderately prosperous society” by 2020, the resistance of entrenched interest groups must be overcome. More subtly, there is what some call a pervasive “soft resistance” – local officials who do not do their job and economic elites who migrate. If reform had been progressing smoothly, then why strengthen central authority by investing Xi with the status of core leader? Xi has encountered obstacles; if there were no obstacles, there would be no need for a core leader. I have been speaking to party officials and theorists about Xi as core leader. In fact, the necessity of having a leadership core to maintain stability and expedite reform is the first and foremost of what I found to be four factors relating to Xi’s elevation. A second factor is that not only does Xi have the responsibility for China’s transformation, he is also accountable for it. Moreover, he has shown courage in confronting and dismantling a vast, corrupt system of bribery, patronage and illicit wealth accretion. A third factor is that Xi as the core does not end, and even may not di- minish, the cardinal principle of Xi Jinping as core leader is more a ratification of reality than a shift of fundamentals Bring down the curtain on this idiotic political drama If you’re tired of all the politics, I feel you. It’s draining, to say the least, especially when the melodrama in Hong Kong is dragging out; it has become downright dreadful when we know there is no respite in sight. We were supposed to have a brief break after last September’s Legislative Council polls, before the next big event. Even though a large number of people will be unable to cast a vote in the Election Committee subsector elections, less than a month away, and in the chief executive election, scheduled for late March next year, the city should by now be focusing on what’s ahead. But, thanks to the two recently disqualified lawmakers, who lacked the necessary knowledge, ability and respect for oath-taking, our (albeit dysfunctional) legislature has basically been shut down for a month. The ugly politics that should have been insulated within “democratic centralism”. The party bolsters each of the concepts: encouraging the democratic solicitation of input and feedback from members, lower-ranked officials, and the public; and strengthening centralism through Xi’s leadership of the principal levers of power (his positions as party general secretary, head of state, chairman of the Central Military Commission, and head of the “leading groups” on reform, national security and internet security). A fourth factor is that a core is required to manage the party more strictly and thereby give members and the public more confidence. Witness Xi’s relentless and unprecedented anti-corruption campaign, which is altering how government officials and industry managers work and even think. Let no one assume that Xi’s battle against corruption has been risk-free. Significantly, these four factors undergirding Xi as the core leader map onto his overarching political framework, his strategic blueprint called “The Four Comprehensives” – a moderately prosperous society, reform, rule of law, party discipline. Xi’s core status arises, we’re told, through the collective will of the party and the people. Becoming party core is not an automatic consequence of being general secretary; a core leader must fit the times and the status must be earned. Speaking at a press conference following the 18th Central Committee’s sixth plenum last month, Huang Kunming (���), executive vice-minister of the committee’s Publicity Department, said that the “central and local departments as well as the military all expressed their support” for Xi’s position as party core, adding that this decision Alice Wu has had enough of the brouhaha over the oath-taking by two lawmakers. Now that they’ve been disqualified, HK must focus on battles ahead the chamber once again spilled out onto our streets. And what should have been decided and concluded on September 4 is now dragging on indefinitely, with two or possibly more by-elections added to the election overload. Hell-raising politics is not going away any time soon, but the sheer stupidity of the localist pair’s actions really is one for the books – Macbeth, in fact: Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, / Creeps in this petty pace from day to day, To the last syllable of recorded time, / And all our yesterdays have lighted fools The way to dusty death. Out, out, was “based on the valuable experience of the party and we feel keenly about it”. Huang explained that “a core is needed to ensure that the party will be the governing party”, describing it as significant for upholding the Central Committee’s authority and maintaining the central, unified leadership of the party and for its “staying true to its mission”. Therefore, party theorists explain, Xi as core leader is more a ratification of reality than a shift of fundamentals. What does Xi as core mean in a historical context? It was Deng Xiaoping (���) who introduced the concept when he designated Jiang Zemin (���) as “core of the third generation” of central leaders, bolstering Jiang’s stature following his unexpected appointment as party leader in 1989. At the time, China was facing the dual impediments of economic stagnation and social uncertainty at home, and economic quarantine and diplomatic isolation abroad. As Deng pointed out: “Any leading group should have a core; a leadership with no core is unreliable.” Only then did Deng retrospectively apply the novel term to Mao Zedong (���) and to himself, as core of the first and second generations, respectively. (Of course, Mao was so utterly dominant that calling him core during his lifetime would have seemed a demotion. Deng remained core even when he no longer held any official position.) Today’s world is more complex. China faces threats at home and abroad. Volatility grows and uncertainty abounds – the Middle East and Donald Trump are offered as evidence. The need to secure China’s stability is more essential than ever, and thus to strengthen brief candle! / Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player That struts and frets his hour upon the stage / And then is heard no more. It is a tale Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, / Signifying nothing. They were indeed full of sound and fury, and they did nothing for the common good. What they did opened the door for an invitation to the courts to intervene. What they did presented an opportunity for an interpretation of the Basic Law by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee. What they did, ultimately, may well become the precedent for other legislators to be similarly Xi’s authority is a primary reason, I’m told, for designating Xi as core leader. Party theorists say China “urgently” requires a political nucleus that is sophisticated and nuanced, attuned to contemporary times. Though conditions now differ from those in 1989, Deng’s admonition rings timelessly true. However, that a core leader is needed now does not mean one will always be needed. When China becomes a fully modernised nation, perhaps by mid-century, condi- tions may change again. True loyalty is telling leadership in private what one really believes is in their best interests I hear frequently of the “painful lessons of China’s century of blood and tears” and that for China not to have a tested and authoritative leadership core would be “unthinkable”. Party inner talk says “Xi Jinping has passed the test of the people” to be China’s political core, leadership core, and a core of the times. Chinese scholars argue that “core” is a unique characteristic of Chinese political theory – however inapplicable (even inexplicable) in Western political theory. They call Western concerns that Xi as core leader means that “a new emperor is born” wildly unfounded, even paranoic. In feudal society, the emperor ruled unconditionally barred. And that is why the duo’s pledge to spend every penny – and lest we forget, this also means the mounting cost to the public purse – to “appeal at all costs” is beyond rich, coming from them. Clearly, they have yet to wrap their heads around the concept of “personal responsibility”. Sixtus Baggio Leung Chung-hang is wrong in believing that their disqualification from Legco rendered the election meaningless. They have no one but themselves to blame for their defenestration. It is they who made the election meaningless. And, to add insult to the grave injury they brought on the rest of us, they are asking for donations. At some point – if we’re not there already – we must take serious offence to be taken as fools, again and again. The curtain must now be drawn on this overly played-out second act. The irony may be lost on the with arbitrary imperial power, and in such a “command-obey” system, goes the argument, there is simply no need for a core. Rather, given today’s party political structure, the concept of a core both strengthens cohesion and serves to prevent a personality cult, not to promote one. Having a core means acknowledging that the party system is not the “emperor system” – absolute power is rejected – and that the optimum system, at least for the foreseeable future, is a combination of concentrated centralism and democratic collective leadership. Corroborating this functional balance, in the communiqué issued following the sixth plenum, the “collective leadership system” is reconfirmed. It states: “The implementation of collective leadership and personal division of labour is an important component of democratic centralism and must always be adhered to.” And it stresses: “Any organisation or individual shall, under any circumstance, not be allowed to violate this system for any reason.” The three “any’s” seem no accident. Some analysts see contradictions. On the one hand, the communiqué calls for democracy and constructive criticism internally within the party. On the other, disobeying the central leadership is forbidden, backed by vigilant supervision and tough discipline. Yet to read these statements as contradictory is to misunderstand what is happening here. Xi appreciates the complex and arduous tasks that lie ahead. He told me so a decade ago, and it is obviously truer today than it was then. The statements are harmonised, first, by the party’s motivation to seek optimum policies for the country, and second, by keeping most of the divergent views internal. True loyalty is telling leadership in private what one really believes is in their best interests, not pandering and fawning by repeating what one thinks leadership wants to hear. Though there are concerns, no one here worries that Xi will become Mao. China is now the world’s largest trading nation and its second-largest economy. China’s diplomacy is expanding and its military is growing. From its Belt and Road initiative building infrastructure and facilitating trade in over 60 developing countries to its leading role in the UN peacekeeping forces, China, the “Middle Kingdom”, is involved in every meaningful matter of international affairs. So, what kind of China do we want? Certainly not one with weak central leadership and fragmented citadels of power. With its huge and imbalanced population, and its diverse culture and traditions, China today requires a leader with sufficient strength and prestige to secure social stability, drive economic reform, and guide it in being a responsible world power. Xi as core leader should be good for China and, thus, for the world. Robert Lawrence Kuhn is a public intellectual, political/economics commentator, and an international corporate strategist. He spoke at the launch ceremony of President Xi Jinping’s book, The Governance of China, and is the host of Closer to China with R. L. Kuhn, a weekly show on CCTV News produced by Adam Zhu pair but it’s pretty obvious who has been played for total fools. In case they haven’t noticed, the lawmakers who served as the duo’s chaperones have stopped babysitting them because there is no value in being their keepers any more. Escorting the duo’s Legco gate-crashing attempts served their purpose: to usher the two straight to their political end, and the votes the two rendered meaningless are now political spoils. The two took the toxic brew and there will be no stay of execution that could stop those ready to contest their seats. We must fight our political fatigue. We can ill afford to be distracted by those who continuously try to foolishly make their own stupid mistakes our collective problem. Alice Wu is a political consultant and a former associate director of the Asia Pacific Media Network at UCLA The basic law of unintended consequences Mike Rowse says the continuing political tussles in HK illustrate the pain of being caught in a cycle of actions and reactions, and we must address the root cause of the grievances There has been a considerable focus recently on the Basic Law and the rule of law, and their interaction. Perhaps neglected in the process has been a different but relevant concept: the law of unintended consequences, whereby an action gives rise to outcomes unforeseen by the instigator. Hong Kong’s tortuous path towards political reform is a case in point. The first reference to the idea of universal suffrage for selection of the chief executive comes in Article 45 of the Basic Law, promulgated back in 1990. Looking towards 1997, its purpose was to reassure. Naturally, attention turned to the subject in the early part of this century. While people understood that the move towards universal suffrage had to be in accordance with the “principle of gradual and orderly progress”, the reform package put forward in 2014 was widely perceived as disappointing; the plan to stick with an unrepresentative nominating committee deciding who could enter the race was unpalatable. The State Council’s white paper on the governance of Hong Kong, intended to set things straight, only stirred things up and led to the Occupy Central protests. The government let the action linger, hoping public anger would pay dividends in the 2016 Legislative Council election. While the 79 days of disruption did bring the protesters momentary opprobrium, memories quickly faded. In the election, the pro-government share of the vote actually fell, and the attack on the idea of independence led directly to a near 20 per cent share of the vote for a localist faction. This was surely not the objective. Now the government is trying to overturn the election outcome. The practice of banning some potential candidates from standing, then using all means at hand to unseat some of those elected, is a tactic more usually associated with third-world countries following a military coup. Has something been lost in translation here? Perhaps we need an interpretation of the interpretation In the short term, the judicial review sought by the chief executive against the decision by Legco president Andrew Leung Kwan-yuen to give Sixtus Baggio Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching another opportunity to take the oath has been successful. Mr Justice Thomas Au Hing-cheung ruled in the High Court that their oaths were invalid, they should not be given a second chance and their positions should immediately be vacated. Many observers thought he might decline to rule at all, and simply refer the matter back to the Legco president. The problem with one arm of the administration delving too deeply into the processes of another is that it inevitably generates more requests to do so. And, sure enough, we now have legal challenges against more legislators, plus a challenge against the chief executive himself. Given that, in the past, other Legco members who had politicised their swearing-in and then done it properly second time round were permitted to take up their seats, did Leung and Yau have a “legitimate expectation” that they would enjoy similar treatment? The Legco president certainly thought so, hence his original ruling. Now it is for a higher court to decide. Meanwhile, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has sought to clarify Article 104 of the Basic Law, which requires all people concerned to “swear to uphold the Basic Law of the Hong Kong special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China and swear allegiance” to it. But the interpretation is different: it talks of “a legal pledge … to the People’s Republic of China and its Hong Kong Special Administrative Region” (emphasis added). Has something been lost in translation here? Perhaps we need an interpretation of the interpretation. If, at the end of the day, there are two (or more) vacant Legco seats, then we are in by-election territory. I don’t think the people are fooled for one minute about what is going on. In each constituency, an impeccable opposition candidate will stand, win a majority, and take the oath impeccably. Unfortunately, this tragedy – or farce – will continue until the government starts to address the underlying grievances over the lack of meaningful political reform instead of just hammering the symptoms, which generates new grievances in the process. Mike Rowse is the CEO of Treloar Enterprises and an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. mike@rowse.com.hk > CONTACT US: Agree or disagree with the opinions on this page? Write to us at letters@scmp.com. If you have an idea for an opinion article, email it to oped@scmp.com A yellow umbrella, a symbol of the Occupy movement, is used in a recent protest against Beijing. Photo: Reuters Wednesday, April 25, 2018 A11 CONTACT US Agree or disagree with the opinions on this page? Write to us at letters@scmp.com If you have an idea for an opinion article, email it to oped@scmp.com Looming tech war Robert Lawrence Kuhn says the ZTE showdown points to a misunderstanding over motives As someone who works for US- China understanding and roots for US-China partnerships, I’ve been concerned, but not worried, over what others have called “a looming trade war”. I’ve not worried because tariffs don’t work; they are blunt instruments in a globalised economy, penalising American companies and consumers as much as Chinese. Most American experts oppose tariffs, and President Donald Trump likes to make big deals after making big threats. But I am now worried over what I will call “a looming tech war”, because the structural imperatives go deeper. As everyone who follows China knows, the US Department of Commerce has imposed a denial of export privileges against ZTE, China’s second-largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer, thus prohibiting US companies from selling essential electronic components and software to ZTE, a crippling sanction. China has responded resolutely, with actions that seem selected from expert scenario planning, and with rhetoric, both indignation and nationalistic bravado. From China’s perspective, according to its Ministry of Commerce, “If the United States attempts to curb China's development … it miscalculates. The action targets China; however, it will ultimately undermine the US itself,” affecting tens of thousands of jobs and hundreds of related US enterprises. “Targeting technology is like throttling the neck of the Chinese enterprises,” wrote China Daily. “The ZTE case should remind China's decision-makers of the urgency to become self-sufficient in core technologies.” President Xi Jinping has been prescient about domestic control of core technologies, especially related to the internet and more recently to artificial intelligence. Since taking office in 2012, he has stressed the “hidden risks” that come with core technologies not being mastered domestically. He said, “Heavy dependence on imported core technology is like building our house on top of someone else's walls: no matter how big and how beautiful it is, it won’t remain standing during a storm.” Innovation is the first of Xi’s “five major concepts of development”. Beijing also claims that the country itself is a victim of discriminatory policies From the US perspective, according to its Department of Commerce, the prohibition against ZTE is punishment for ZTE violating US sanctions against Iran and North Korea, making false statements and obstructing justice, and then after reaching a settlement agreement, violating it. The United States claims it is not resisting China’s rise, but rather the country’s unfair or illegal means to achieve it. The US action enumerated four such practices as rationale for imposing punitive tariffs, all relating to technology or intellectual property: foreign firms in China are required to form joint ventures and transfer knowledge, as well as license technology with below-market terms and conditions, while the state supports Chinese enterprises in acquiring foreign hi-tech assets, and sanctions commercial cyber theft. President Trump is wildly unpopular among American elites, especially among policy experts, who do not need much of an excuse to criticise him – note the fusillade of attacks on Trump’s tariffs. But these elites are not criticising Trump on US moves to counter what they, with unusual consensus, perceive to be China’s unfair policies, and in some cases unlawful programmes, to become a world leader in state-of-the-art technologies, especially AI, information technology, robotics, advanced manufacturing, new energy vehicles, aviation and biotechnology. China claims that it is still a developing country, so different rules apply, a foundational principle of the World Trade Organisation. Beijing also claims that the country itself is a victim of discriminatory policies restricting its imports of hi-tech products. Of course, China had to respond with appropriate actions as well as confident words, imposing heavy tariffs on US sorghum and signalling that additional agricultural tariffs were at the ready, along with barely veiled threats against US companies operating in China. Here’s my fear. While I have argued that most mainstream American experts are not motivated to impede China’s rise, as many in China believe, I can no longer make that argument persuasive. In the US, there has been a dark turn among experts that US policy towards China, calibrated over four decades to shepherd China’s rise, has failed: China, they have come to believe, has become a competitor and may become an adversary, and that US relations with China must now be managed as with an emergent adversary, not as with a developing partner. In China, nationalistic voices are on the rise, castigating the US for its self-serving motivation to impede China’s rise, and calling for China to become more self-reliant, more rapidly, especially in world-class semiconductors, so that the country would not be vulnerable to US “blackmail”. Welcome to the unhappy world of selffulfilling prophecy, where the actions of each side in response to a perceived threat from the other side increases the likelihood of that threat morphing from theoretical to actual. To both sides, I offer two pieces of advice. First, take a breath and a fresh look, because the road on which you are travelling will not lead to a happy place. Second, contemplate why the other side is misinterpreting your actions. To my American friends, what makes China think the US is resisting its rise? To my Chinese friends, what makes the US think that China is a competitor and may become an adversary? Projecting malevolent motives and seeing sinister conspiracies is the easy way out. It can solicit cheers and plaudits in one’s domestic media, but it will impede progress and is likely to be self-defeating. The US and China must each figure out how not to confirm the other’s self-fulfilling prophecy. Robert Lawrence Kuhn is a public intellectual, international corporate strategist and investment banker, and China expert and commentator. He is the author of How China’s Leaders Think and a co-creator (with Adam Zhu) and host of CGTN’s “Closer to China with R.L. Kuhn” and “The Watcher” commentaries Older people still have lot to offer in the workplace Paul Yip says measures to ensure Hong Kong retirees remain active through employment may help prevent poverty and partially offset the impact of a declining birth rate Employment is the most robust method for keeping people out of poverty. In Hong Kong’s latest poverty situation report, for those with a job, the poverty rate is only 12.3 per cent, compared to 77.4 per cent among those not working. Among older adults with a job, it is 12.9 per cent, compared with 48.2 per cent among those without employment. Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung Kin-chung has recently raised the possibility of promoting workforce participation for those aged 50-64 and helping those aged 65-74 re-enter the job market. Hong Kong’s workforce participation rate among older adults is 17.7 per cent, lower than in Japan (22.7 per cent), Singapore (26.8 per cent) and Seoul (31.5 per cent). The Japanese government has been very active in promoting workforce participation among its older citizens, especially since 27 per cent of its population was aged 65 or over as of 2017. The population size has decreased, from 128 million in 2010 to 127 million in 2015, and the United Nations estimates that the number will continue to fall until 2061. The number of migrants moving to the country has not offset the population decrease, leaving no choice but to improve the labour participation and productivity rate, especially among older adults and married women with children. Though Hong Kong’s total fertility rate is only 1.2 per woman – less than the 1.4 in Japan – we have benefited from migration from the mainland to keep our population young. Our life expectancy is also very similar to Japan’s, at 81 for men and 87 for women. It is time to explore how to make better use of our older The most important thing is to provide an option for older adults to be active in the job market Greater effort is required to foster gender diversity Kevin Sneader and Anu Madgavkar say the Asia-Pacific region needs more women leaders Women’s representation in highranking positions in business and politics is a global issue, but an even more pressing one in Asia-Pacific. Across the region, only one in five people in leading roles is a woman. This waste of women’s talent comes at an economic cost. Many economies in the region are ageing and skills shortages are on the rise: making more of women’s potential can help meet such challenges. Businesses gain a great deal from supporting women. McKinsey’s 2018 report “The Power of Parity” found that companies in the top quarter for gender diversity on their executive teams are 21 per cent more likely to experience aboveaverage profitability. Even in developed economies in the Asia-Pacific, few women are getting to the top in business – in Japan, there are no female CEOs in the top 100 public companies. In Australia and Singapore, the share of women CEOs in 2016 was only 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. The Philippines, a traditionally matriarchal society whose government has been proactive in tackling gender inequality, does better in senior positions overall, but only 3 per cent of CEOs and 15 per cent of board members are women. The lower share of women in leading positions within companies isn’t all about the glass ceiling – the point at which women’s careers appear to halt. Rather, women’s under-representation has its roots as far back as the education system. In India, only 44 per cent of students in tertiary education are female and many graduates don’t take up employment: only 25 per cent of entry-level positions in Indian companies are taken by women. In Japan, the share of women enrolled in college is higher, at 47 per cent, but women were only 28 per cent of students attending the top 10 universities. The share of women erodes sharply from entry-level to the boardroom, and the biggest “breakpoint” is motherhood. In a 2015 McKinsey survey, 45 per cent of Asian executives cited the “anywhere, anytime” performance model as the largest barrier to women moving into senior roles. In Japan, a survey found that three-quarters of women respondents said they were not interested in managerial positions, partly because promotion would mean working even longer hours. The second most cited factor behind women dropping out of work is the “double burden” of holding down a job while looking after the family. In China, 33 per cent of female respondents to a 2017 survey said that they had a lower salary when they returned to work after having a baby, and 36 per cent said they had to accept a demotion. Sixty-three per cent said they did not want a second child because this would hurt their career. Many women struggle to return to work because childcare options are limited or too expensive. In Australia, net childcare costs (paid by two-earner families) were 20 per cent of an average family’s income in 2015, compared with the 13 per cent average in OECD economies. The attrition of women from the talent pipeline starts even earlier than motherhood, as societal attitudes militate against women pursuing a career and prioritise looking after families. In India, 70 per cent of respondents to the 2010-2014 World Values Survey agreed with the statement, “When a mother works for pay, the children suffer.” More can be done to give women the freedom to choose a career as well as motherhood There has been some progress. The share of women on company boards has been rising, reflecting efforts by both governments and private-sector organisations. India has made it mandatory for companies to have at least one female director, and the Australian Securities Exchange Corporate Governance Council tracks gender diversity in its constituent companies. Japanese pharmaceutical company Takeda hit its target of 30 per cent of new managers being women (from only 6.2 per cent in 2015) through a range of initiatives including flexible working hours. However, there is much more that can be done to give women the freedom to choose a career as well as motherhood. Narrowing the leadership gender gap will require concerted action by governments and companies from encouraging and helping girls to learn the right skills for a changing labour market and mentoring women in their careers, to shifting attitudes towards women’s roles through public-awareness campaigns to – perhaps most importantly – making work flexible. More help with childcare is urgently needed. Governments can use public spending to expand childcare provision and companies can set up nurseries. Flexible working practices in companies are vital. In Australia, financial services company Suncorp enables flexible working through “work at home hubs” that combine home work stations and working spaces in regional shopping centres. Such efforts are only likely to be effective with a root-and-branch shift in attitudes towards women’s roles in society. Governments can lead from the front, setting targets for women’s representation in business as Japan and Singapore have done, and more companies can push for true diversity within their ranks. Doing so is not only in the interests of their bottom line but the health of the economies in which they work. Kevin Sneader is chairman, Asia-Pacific, of McKinsey & Company. Anu Madgavkar is a partner at McKinsey Global Institute adults. We should create the right environment for raising the retirement age and extending employment beyond that age. Some issues, like excessive health and medical insurance costs for the older workforce, and long working hours, should be re-examined. The government can create a fund to protect against excessive increases in insurance costs, while introducing a more flexible working arrangement for the older workforce. The most important thing is to provide an option for older adults to be active in the job market, and give them the choice of whether to continue in a job. Those who have had enough could perhaps take on volunteer work in the community. For those who stay on with paid employment, more flexible time arrangements would better suit their needs, while their roles could be redefined so as not to stand in the way of the career advancement of younger workers. Some tangible support might be needed for the business sector, ideally through a tax-deductible arrangement rather than the proposed cash support. For some work, such as in teaching and research, the situation depends on individual ability. As in overseas countries, participants should be allowed to work as long as they meet expectations. At present, a vigorous review process takes place to determine whether to extend beyond retirement age. The education levels of Hong Kong’s older adults is not high and, among those with very low levels, most can only find work in low-skilled jobs such as cleaning and security duties. Nevertheless, these areas face a shortage of labour and can be a good fit. In such cases, people’s rights and pay should be better protected, to avoid companies exploiting this group of workers. Also, sometimes, older adults are not driven by money when seeking work. For some, finding meaning in their work can be sufficient. The Japanese experience shows that some older adults continue to work to maintain their independence and fitness. Such workers, whatever they do, display high levels of professionalism. Respecting the wishes of older adults and providing a quality choice in terms of working would be a winwin situation for the whole community. Paul Yip is chair professor (Population Health) in the Department of Social Work and Social Administration at the University of Hong Kong For some, finding meaning in work is important, as with these women who recycle used clothes to make bags. Comment›Insight & Opinion › United StatesUS-China trade US-China trade war could end with a ‘big deal’ through baby steps towards mutual understanding Robert Lawrence Kuhn says the US must accept China’s need to support technological development, while China should work with US policymakers who oppose tariffs but want the country to further open its markets and protect intellectual property rights PUBLISHED : Thursday, 30 August, 2018, 5:02am - UPDATED : Thursday, 30 August, 2018, 6:15am Robert Lawrence Kuhn President Xi Jinping Major Speech Seattle September 24, 2015 Robert Lawrence Kuhn Simultaneous Commentary Quest Means Business China’s Xi Jinping UN Speech Robert Lawrence Kuhn Interview September 28, 2015 CNN’S AMANPOUR – May 29, 2013 President Xi Jinping to meet President Barack Obama Interview with Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn, long-time adviser to China’s leaders. http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2013/05/29/exp-­‐race-­‐china-­‐us-­‐amanpour.cnn CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST: Good evening. I'm Christiane Amanpour. There may officially be only one superpower today, but another is rapidly advancing. The United States and China jockey for position at the pinnacle of the world in what might just be called a race to the top. So how will the first tete-a-tete go between their leaders, the two most powerful men on Earth, U.S. President Barack Obama and China's leader, Xi Jinping, will meet just over a week from now in an informal setting at the aptly named Sunnylands Estate just outside Los Angeles. China is anxious and angry about Obama's much-touted “pivot” to Asia and about what China perceives to be the U.S. siding with Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea. The United States, for its part, has a laundry list of concerns, everything from alleged Chinese hacking of even its most sensitive military secrets to its influence over North Korea and Pyongyang's nuclear saber-rattling. President Xi says the U.S.-China relationship is at a crucial juncture and he says that he wants to forge, "a new type of great power relationship." So what exactly will that look like? We need to know because this may just be the most important relationship in the world today. And in a moment, I will dig deeper with Robert Lawrence Kuhn, a long-time adviser to China's leaders. AMANPOUR: Robert Lawrence Kuhn has tremendous insight into China's leaders. He's a long-time adviser to the Chinese government; he's met President Xi several times and he's the author of the book, "How China's Leaders Think." That is a big title. Welcome to the studio. Fareed Zakaria GPS “Xi Jinping: The Governance of China” Robert Lawrence Kuhn October 5, 2014 FZ: What in the world is the leader of the second largest economy on the planet thinking? That’s a question many would love to know the answer to, but in a closed, secretive society, like China, it’s all but impossible to know. He rarely gives interviews, and the press in China is far from free. But now we have something to look at. Chinese President Xi Jinping has a new book, entitled The Governance of China, and it’s aiming for worldwide impact. State media there reports that the book has been published in nine languages: Chinese, English, French, Russian, Arabic, Spanish, Portuguese, German and Japanese. My next guest, Robert Lawrence Kuhn, says it is a milestone. Kuhn has advised the Chinese government for twenty-­‐five years, and is the author of How China’s Leaders Think. Welcome. KUHN: Pleasure to be here. FZ: First, give us a sense of who this man is for our viewers. Who is Xi Jinping, and why is he a little different from China’s ordinary leaders? KUHN: Xi Jinping has been involved in all aspects of what makes China today. His father was one of the founders of the country, truly a great revolutionary and a great reformer in the early days. Xi Jinping graduated from Tsinghua University [‘China’s MIT’], with a degree in chemical engineering. Then he went through more than two decades working at the local level. Starting in a county, and then a city, Xiamen, working his way up for many years in Fujian province, becoming the governor. Then for five years Xi was the Party Secretary of, the number one official responsible for, Zhejiang province, which is the center of entrepreneurship in China. So that gives him a great sense of business. And that was when I first met Xi Jinping, actually, in 2005, and then again in 2006, seeing him doing the real work of running a province, a local area. President Xi is a person, when you see him, who is unassuming; he’s big, he has a strong presence in a room, but you feel very comfortable with him. He doesn’t put on airs, he’s very warm and BBC World News Robert Lawrence Kuhn China’s Economy & Politics President Xi’s ‘Four Comprehensives’ August 25, 2015 HOST: Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn is an advisor to the Chinese government and author of How China’s Leaders Think and he joins me now from Beijing. A cut in interest rates today - but in China any economic decision is always colored with politics. RLK: Certainly people are concerned here, but you have to realize a 43% drop in the Shanghai stock market is still 25% above its 52-week lows, so what the economists, government, tries to do is to distinguish between the so-called real economy and the stock market. Most people realize China’s stock market was overvalued, but perception is reality, and if people have less money on paper, they’ll spend less, and so the fall will affect the real economy. And you’re right, the way to look at such situations in China is not just economically - you can’t look at China without looking at politics, and here there are two major areas. One is President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington. This has been a very tense time in Sino-US relations: South China Sea, cybersecurity, human rights, lots of issues. But what this economic uncertainty and volatility will do - I hope - is to make both presidents focus on what really affects human beings and human lives, focus on economic areas, because this is where there can be some commonality between China and the US. The contentious issues are real, but economics is more real for people. Domestically in China, it’s really interesting, because in recent days, there have been editorials in People’s Daily talking about extreme resistance to reform and older leaders who are still involved and maybe shouldn’t be, and so you have to look at domestic politics in terms of what Xi Jinping, who is China’s dominant leader, the president of the country, head of the party, head of the military, and other titles as well, and what his overarching policy is. It’s called the “Four Comprehensives.” We learn from each one. The first says that China wants to build a ‘moderately prosperous society’. That’s their shortterm goal. It’s not different than others have said in ⽇报周报杂志 ⼈民⽇报海外版 2017 年 05 ⽉ 08 ⽇星期⼀ 往期回顾 分类检索 返回⽬录 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 将成本世纪伟⼤故事 —— 专访美国库恩基⾦会主席罗伯特 · 劳伦斯 · 库恩 本报驻美国记者张朋辉 《⼈民⽇报海外版》 ( 2017 年 05 ⽉ 08 ⽇第 01 版 ) 第 01 版 : 要闻 版⾯导航 下⼀版 罗伯特 · 劳伦斯 · 库恩 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 国际合作⾼峰论坛开幕前⼣ , 本报记者专访了美国库恩基⾦会主席罗伯特 · 劳伦斯 · 库恩。作为此次⾼峰论坛的嘉宾之⼀ , 库恩博⼠密切关注中国倡议的 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 建设 , 对 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 建设及 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 国际合作⾼峰论坛抱有很⾼期待。他认为 ,“ ⼀带⼀路 ” 倡议正当其时 ,“ ⼀带⼀路 ” 建设将成为 21 世纪最伟⼤的故事之⼀。 中国找到了同世界的契合点库恩分析说 , “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 在世界这么受欢迎 , 是因为中国找到了⾃⾝发展经验同世界需要的契合点。他说 ,“ ⼀带⼀路 ” 倡议在全球许多国家受到热烈欢迎 , 主要有 3 个原因 : ⼀是基础设施是很多发展中国家的迫切需要 , 基础设施建设是 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 的重要关注点。⼆是世界上很多国家经济增长缓慢 , 他们希望通过参与 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 建设项⽬刺激经济增长。三是对于许多发展中国家来说 , 中国既是⼀个榜样 , 也是能够带来专长、经验和资本的国家 , 参与 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 建设项⽬是与中国加强合作的理想⽅式。 “ ⼀带⼀路 ” 倡议提出 3 年多来 , 成果超出预期 , 得到国际社会积极评价。库恩说 :“ 习近平主席关于合作共赢的全球化观念 , 从蓝图变成了路线图 , 从计划到付诸实践 , 从纸⾯的概念变成了地⾯的项⽬。过去 3 年 ,‘ ⼀带⼀路 ’ 建设项⽬遍地开花 , 我亲⾃见证了这⼀设想从愿景变成现实。 ” 库恩说 , 他更看重的成就是将正在进⾏的 “ 最 Interview: Xi's engaging, creative diplomatic approach to benefit China-U.S. ties: U.S. expert | 2015-09-10 21:06:53 | Editor: Tian Shaohui by Xinhua writer Luo Jun BEIJING, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping, with an engaging and creative diplomatic approach, is likely to secure "a big success" in his visit to the United States later this month, said U.S. expert Robert Kuhn. In an exclusive interview with Xinhua, Kuhn, author of "The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin" and "How China's Leaders Think," recalled Xi's previous trip to California as president and to Iowa as vice president as "one of the best images as for China." (The photo shows Robert Lawrence Kuhn introducing "Xi Jinping: The Governance of China" at BookExpoAmerica in New York on May 29, 2015) "He went to sporting events and I was at one of the luncheons. You really had a wonderful, enriched feeling about China at that point," Kuhn said. Now with the United States entering a political season of presidential election, issues of contention with China and the lack of overall understanding of China's policy has been increasing, but Kuhn believes that low expectations can become an advantage as people may "get surprised on the positive 8 C H I N A D A I L Y . C O M . C N / O P I N I O N M O N D A Y, O C T O B E R 2 0 , 2 0 1 4 C H I N A D A I L Y Comment editorial • opinion THE FOURTH PLENARY SESSION OF THE 18TH Central Committee of the Communist Party of China opens on Monday and will last for four days. The designated theme — governing through the rule of law — indicates how important this meeting will be for the future of both the Party and the country. That this is the first time in 17 years the Party has designated such a theme for a plenary session speaks volumes about the importance the new leadership attaches to it. It is high on the agenda. Yet, the more the concept of rule of law has been discussed, the more obvious it becomes that there is, today, much to be desired. More than 50 minister­level or higher officials have either been indicted or placed under investigation for abuse of power in the past year or so, underlining the fact that the rule of law is sorely needed. It is perhaps the only way to eliminate, once and for all, the most serious threat to good governance and to secure the blessings of prosperity and justice to the people. The fact that power today can effectively nullify the law, and that those in power can circumvent it, not only deprives the Party of its capacity to govern the country in a consistently fair and just manner but also disrupts the reasonable running of the marketplace. Abuse of power makes it impossible for fairness to prevail in the socialist market economy. Despite the great achievements China has made over more than three decades, it will be very difficult for its economy to grow in a sound manner — and neither will society progress in a healthy way — unless fair competition and mutual trust can be secured and ordinary people’s rights and interests can be guaranteed through the rule of law. If the country is to achieve further reforms in various fields and establish and maintain a fair and just society, the powerworshipping mentality among government and Party officials must be eliminated. This is a core goal of the leadership. Unless the overwhelming majority of Party and government officials not only respect the law, but follow it when making decisions, governing the country by the rule of law will amount to little but lip service. It will be no easy job, and it will take time for the power­oriented way of doing things to be transformed. But the new Party leadership has shown it has the courage to face the challenge. We therefore have reason to expect much from the current plenary session as they work to put the country on the right track. CONTACT US CHINADAILY A foundation of law O T H E R V I E WS Historic moment China Daily 15HuixinDongjieChaoyang, Beijing100029 News: +86(0) 106491­8366; editor@chinadaily.com.cn Subscription: +86400­699­0203; sub@chinadaily.com.cn Advertisement: +86(0) 106491­8631; ads@chinadaily.com.cn Phone app: chinadaily.com.cn/iphone China Daily USA 1500Broadway, Suite2800, New York, NY10036+12125378888 editor@chinadailyusa.com China Daily Hong Kong (Asia) Room1818, HingWaiCentre7TinWan PrayaRoadAberdeen, HongKong +85225185111 editor@chinadailyhk.com editor@chinadailyasia.com E D I T O R I A L he convocation of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th Com­ Party of China Central Committee, whose theme is Tmunist promoting the rule of law, embodies the CPC’s deepening perception on governance and the law. www.people.com.cn October 15. t is the first time that the CPC, as the ruling Party, will make a Icomprehensive plan on the rule of law in the form of a Party document. The session, which marks the ruling Party’s significant strategic layout on how to govern the nation in accordance with laws and the Constitution, illustrates its new exploration of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The CPC Central Committee will focus on discussions on how to promote rule of law in at a plenary session. ... It has only six years to 2020, the deadline set for the realization of a well­off society for China, and 35 years to 2049, the promised year for China to be a prosperous, democratic, civilized and harmonious socialist modern nation. All these mean China has entered a crucial stage of deepened reforms. Only by sticking to “governance of the nation according to laws” will China realize its historic mission. www.xinhuanet.com.cn October 19. he National People’s Congress, China’s top legislature, should Tplay a bigger role in the country’s efforts to promote the rule of law. For example, the NPC can push for deepened reforms within the framework of the Constitution and laws through legislation to realize a benign interaction between reforms and the rule of law. The deeper the water China’s reforms will enter, the more legal guidance and guarantees these reforms will need. The NPC enjoys a broad space for maneuvering in this regard. Beijing News October 17 I n the last three months, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has held two conferences studying major issues related to comprehensively pushing for the rule of law. As the theme “Chinaruledbylaw” issetfortheFourthPlenarySessionof the 18th CPC Central Committee, the overall planning and prospect of a China governed by law will become increasingly explicit. Lianhe zaobao October 14 China Daily UK 90CannonStreetLondonEC4N6HA +44(0) 2073988270 editor@chinadailyuk.com China Daily Africa P.O.Box27281­00100, Nairobi, Kenya +254(0) 205223498(Nairobi) editor@chinadailyafrica.com enquiries@chinadailyafrica.com subscription@chinadailyafrica.com R O B E RT L AW R E N C E KU H N Decoding Xi’s future vision President Xi’s new book reveals his thinking about the country’s governance and maps out a path for achieving the Chinese Dream The Governance of China, President Xi Jinping’s new book, is unprecedented. Can analyzing the book elucidate Xi’s thinking and illuminate China’s future? Consider seven frameworks or perspectives: publishing purposes, overarching themes, content analysis, chain of developmental causation, domestic goals, domestic means and global principles. Publishing Purposes: substance, symbol, signal. Substance means Xi’s political philosophy and wide­ranging policies — organizing 79 speeches and commentaries in 18 chapters — to discern how Xi intends to realize the Chinese Dream, “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. Symbol means recognizing Xi’s emergence as China’s leader, with greater authority, confidence and support than observers had expected when he first took office two years ago. Signal means communicating Xi’s way of thinking to global audiences in nine languages, an original and explicit outreach to engage the world on multiple levels. Overarching Themes: pride, stability, responsibility, vision. Pride expresses the yearning of the Chinese people for the “great rejuvenation”. Stability means maintaining the current political system (Socialism with Chinese characteristics and the Party’s leadership). Responsibility means “realizing a moderately prosperous society by the centenary of the Party in 2021”. Vision means “turning China into a prosperous, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious modern socialist country by the centenary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049”. Content Analysis. How does Xi impute importance to topics? By examining what’s in Xi’s book, can we explore what’s on Xi’s mind? Of the book’s 18 chapters, 11 relate to domestic affairs, seven to foreign affairs; six have political relevance; six concern standards of living; and four standards of L I M I N behavior. Categorizing the content, about a third is politics and people; another third on international relations; about 15 percent each on reform and development, and society and culture; and about 8 percent on national security and defense. Pervasive throughout is reform. Chain of Developmental Causation. The Chinese Dream is founded on political stability, which enables far­reaching reform, which in turn promotes economic development, and which, when combined with rule of law and Chinese values, strengthens China’s society, culture, ecology and even defense. Where is this “chain of causation” in Xi’s book? The first and last chapters affirm political stability: “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” and “The CPC Leadership”, both of which assert the Party’s political primacy and thus assure social stability. “The Chinese Dream” is the second chapter, proclaiming the grand mission of national resurgence and personal well­being. Then, chapters on deepening reform and economic development, which lead to chapters on rule of law, advanced culture, social undertakings and ecological progress. Domestic Goals: values, morality, prosperity, fairness, happiness. Values: Xi’s vision is to inculcate China’s traditional values — “the thoughts of the ancient sages”, exemplified by Confucianism — into socialist core values. (“We must take traditional Chinese culture as the base.”) Morality: Derived from values, morality is described as “conscious law”, and “civic morality” is characterized as needing improvement, while “paragons of morality are important banners for building public ethics”. (“A gentleman takes morality as his bedrock” — a traditional virtue that Xi quotes.) Prosperity: “Common prosperity is the fundamental principle of Chinese socialism … We will accelerate China’s overall prosperity”. Fairness: Because the Chinese people have always had a perception that “inequality rather than want is the cause of trouble”, Xi says, China “should do a better job of promoting Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng arrived in the lobby of the European Commission’s headquarters at 9 o’clock on Saturday morning. He was led to the office of outgoing Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht, who has been a thorn in the side of Chinese businesses because of his protectionist attitude ever since he took over the job in 2010. De Gucht, 60, will be replaced in a few days by Swedish politician Cecilia Malmstrom, 46, when a newly constituted commission gets underway. In the afternoon, the Chinese side announced a long­awaited agreement in principle: Brussels will not launch an investigation into subsidies of China’s telecommunication imports into the European market. The EU side still needs to go through internal procedures for formal approval. The threat was mainly targeted at Chinese telecommunications equipment makers Huawei Technologies Co and ZTE Corp. While the big picture of relations has been a positive one, the Europeans have annoyed Beijing from time to time — for example, by allowing the Dalai Lama to visit, by attacking China on human rights and by imposing high trade barriers. Despite such irritants, Beijing has sent constructive signals. In the first half of this year, President Xi Jinping paid the first­ever visit of a Chinese president to the European Union’s headquarters. And last week, at the summit of Asian and European leaders in Milan, Italy, Premier Li Keqiang hosted a special dinner for Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, thanking them for their contributions to positive relations. At the dinner, the leaders were thought to have touched on the telecommunication trade dispute, which involves about 1 billion euros ($1.26 billion) annually. The path to Saturday’s solution was similar to a pattern set earlier, in mid­2013, after both sides worked through an anti­dumping and anti­subsidy investigation involving China’s multi­billiondollar solar panel exports to the EU. Brussels began that investigation in 2012. Beijing was unhappy that there had been no high­level invitation to visit Brussels a year after the launch of the investigation. In May last year, Li made his first trip to Germany after taking office and won the support of the German government, which vetoed Brussels’ decision, following dozens of EU member states. Li made a last­minute call on Barroso the following month, as Brussels was about to vote on whether to end the solar panel dispute through amicable consultation. Li’s decisive role was crucial in preventing the escalation of a trade war. If Beijing had opted to deal with such disputes in an eye­for­eye, toothfor­tooth manner, both sides would have been losers, with the EU taking the brunt. It has already suffered two economic recessions, and its jobless rate has been in double digits for a few years now. Of course, with the trade volume between China and Europe expanding, and with investment pouring into Europe, China’s government, its businesses and its media must work to make the most of the rising economic tide. fairness and justice”. Happiness: The Chinese Dream, Xi says, is to “bring happiness to the Chinese people”, to “ensure the people greater happiness” — but, he cautions, “happiness does not fall from the sky, nor do dreams come true automatically.” (In Xi’s book, “values” occurs about 120 times, “morality” 24, “prosperity” 67, “fairness” 44 and “happiness’’ 16.) Domestic Means: close to the people, realism, stability, reform, rule of law, combating corruption. “Close to the people” is an all­encompassing way of thinking that shapes all decisions. Realism: “I have repeatedly said that the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation can in no way be realized easily,” Xi says. “While fully affirming our achievements, we should also be aware of our shortcomings.” Stability: The precondition for all else, stability is a recurrent and foundational theme (“stability” occurs 125 times). Reform: Those who wonder whether Xi is a “real reformer” should read “Explanatory Notes … Concerning Comprehensively Continuing Reform” (page 76). Examples: the market plays a “decisive role”; farmers given transactional property rights; the judicial system separate from the administrative system. Rule of Law: “A fundamental principle” and “the basic way to run the country” — the Fourth Plenary of the 18th CPC Central Committee, focusing on rule of law, is Xi’s call to action. Combating corruption is a hallmark of Xi’s administration, enhancing each of the five other domestic means. It is no accident that the chapter on combating corruption is positioned, significantly, between “Close Ties with the People” and “The CPC Leadership”. I bear witness to Xi’s consistency. In 2006, Adam Zhu (my long­term partner) and I met privately with then­Zhejiang Party Secretary Xi. He stressed that while China should be properly proud of its successes, “achievements should not engender complacency”. Xi said: “We need to assess ourselves objectively.” Global Principles. Consider five. Independence (China remains unaligned). Multi­polar world (no country dominates). One country, two systems (Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan). Peaceful development (“We have made a solemn pledge to the whole world that we will never seek hegemony”). Multilateral affairs (cooperation with the global community). These five global principles drive China’s “new model of major country relations” (primarily with the US), “neighborhood diplomacy” (Japan, Vietnam, Koreas, etc.), and “cooperation with developing countries” (such as in Africa). The Silk Road economic belt (land route and maritime) is President Xi’s new initiative for multinational development. Here’s my blurb for Xi’s book: “This book is a milestone, both in substance and symbol, offering openly the political philosophy of President Xi Jinping and recognizing his emergence as China’s senior leader. While misunderstandings about China and its leadership abound, there is now no need to speculate about President Xi. Here is how he thinks, candidly and comprehensively.” It is the pride of a patriot. The author is an international corporate strategist and political/economics commentator. He is theauthorof How China’s Leaders Thinkanda biography of former president Jiang Zemin. He gave one of the speeches at the launching ceremonyfor Xi Jinping: The Governance of China,at theFrankfurtBookFaironOct8. F U J I N G Courtesy, not confrontation, best for Europe So far, there is no unified Chinese business council in Brussels to represent and lobby for Chinese investors in Europe. By contrast, a major US business organization reportedly has 300 staff members focusing on Brussels’ policymaking. A lack of communication and influence can easily lead to misunderstandings. Bureaucrats in Brussels usually follow Washington’s lead when making policies that affect China. Trade commission leaders need to make more field trips to member states to learn how Chinese businesses matter. Take China’s solar panel exports for example. The industry, which involves about 400,000 workers in China, has offered competitive products to thousands of European upstream companies and helped Europe achieve its status as a green energy leader. In telecom, Huawei and ZTE are deeply integrated with European partners. And, incidentally, Huawei is a steady job creator in Europe, where young people, in particular, have faced huge employment challenges. If De Gucht had kept the big picture in mind, he would not have made confrontational moves against China and its businesses. Overall, the EU recognizes China as strong strategic partner. This is the starting point for dispute control. Amicability helps both sides win. With confrontation, everyone loses. The author is China Daily chief correspondent in Brussels. fujing@chinadaily.com.cn ������������� ������ ������� ��� ������ ������� �� ��� ��� ���� ����� P A G E 3 2 Last word C H I N A D A I L Y E U R O P E A N W E E K L Y J U L Y 1 3 - 1 9 , 2 0 1 2 The insider with an outside view strategist, Banker and author has intimate knowledge of China — and its leaders By Andrew Moody andrewmoody@chinadaily.com.cn Robert Lawrence Kuhn says the West often doesn’t understand the Chinese leadership’s key priorities for China. The 67-year-old American is seen by many as one of the few figures outside the world’s secondlargest economy who actually does. He is regarded as a knowledgeable insider, having been an adviser to a number of leading Chinese bodies since the late-1980s and knowing many of the country’s top political figures personally. “There is rarely alignment between what topics China’s leaders think are important about China and what the world thinks,” says Kuhn, also an international corporate strategist and investment banker. “Understanding China requires knowing the difference.” He was speaking recently in the five-star Grand Hyatt hotel in central Beijing, which is his home for 90 days a year. The rest of the time he divides between his three homes in the United States and traveling elsewhere. “They treat me very well here. Even when I travel around China, I keep a room here,” he says. The hotel is well placed near to China’s seat of government around Tian’anmen Square where he has an extensive network of contacts. His latest book, How China’s Leaders Think: The Inside Story of China’s Past, Current and Future Leaders, which is now out in paperback and more than 500 pages, goes into extensive detail about those who have the responsibility for shaping modern China. Kuhn, who cuts a dapper figure, says many in the West often have an outdated view about modern Chinese leaders. “The reality is that China’s leaders are meritocratic,” he says. “Many have strong academic backgrounds from top universities and all have significant experience, often having run two or more provinces or major municipalities as Party secretary, governor or mayor.” Kuhn, who is also a new China Daily columnist, is much in demand from major news organizations around the world, including TV appearances on BBC, CNBC, Euronews and Bloomberg TV, and says he has had complete freedom to express his opinions. “I have written three books about China, dozens of articles and columns; I’ve produced two major TV documentaries about China and given scores of media interviews — and never has anyone in China even requested to censor anything I’ve published or broadcast outside of China,” he says. Some in the West, however, have accused him of being too much of an insider and not giving the full picture about China because he was too close to the leadership. Robert Lawrence Kuhn says China’s growth is good for the world, but it cannot save the world. “I deem it vital, considering China’s importance in the world, that China’s leaders become more known to the world, and known not just via sound-bites and photo ops, but by seeing them up-close as real people — hearing their own words, listening to their stories, getting their ways of thinking. I’m pleased to facilitate some of this,” he says. “I also offer my own analysis. As for my accuracy and understanding, readers or viewers can judge for themselves.” Kuhn, who was born in New York, began his career as a scientist. After studying biology at John Hopkins University, he did a doctorate in anatomy and brain research at the University of California at Los Angeles in the 1960s. Brain science and consciousness remain major interests of his. His first involvement in China was through the scientific community in the late-1980s when he worked with scientists reforming China’s research and technology base. He received an invitation from Song Jian, then a State councilor and chairman of the State Science and Technology Commission. At the time he was developing a parallel business career and became president of The Geneva Companies, a leading US mergers and acquisitions company, which he eventually sold to Citigroup in 2000. At the same time he was cementing links with leading business and political figures in China. His organization, The Kuhn Foundation, with CCTV (China Central Television), produced the documentary In Search of China for PBS in the US, which was broadcast in 2000. He is now working on a new fivepart series China’s Challenges, which will be broadcast in China in the autumn and syndicated to PBS stations in the US next year. Perhaps Kuhn’s most significant project was writing a biography of former president Jiang Zemin, which was the best-selling book in China in 2005. How China’s Leaders Think was based on interviews with more than 100 leading Chinese political figures, some of whom he has known for more than a decade. “I know many personally and have worked with several for a number of years. When you hear them speak over a period of time, it gives you a sense of their personalities and character as well as their intellectual capabilities, leadership style and political progress,” he says. Kuhn sometimes likes to invoke humor to explain why there is sometimes friction between Chinese and American leaders. “Some people think it is because feng yongbin / China Daily of ideological, historical or cultural reasons that we have communication problems. As I once pointed out, perhaps it’s because China’s leaders, the members of the Politburo Standing Committee, were trained as engineers, and most American politicians were trained as lawyers. Maybe the problem is that lawyers and engineers can’t talk to one another!” Kuhn says the main focus in the West is often the Chinese economy and whether it will continue to motor ahead. “China should have 10 to 20 more years of what we should still call relatively high growth, driven by continuing the country’s unprecedented urbanization and modernization. “Growth rates will naturally ease from reform’s historic averages — probably to 6 to 8 percent per annum — which is less than we are used to, but which may be optimal because China can more effectively deal with its most severe problems, particularly economic and social imbalances and sustainable development. “However, China’s economy is fragile, vulnerable to exogenous shock. China’s growth is good for the world, but it cannot ‘save the world’,” he says. Kuhn says there is often a danger of China being misrepresented because it is seen through a narrow perspective. BIO Robert Lawrence Kuhn International corporate strategist, investment banker, senior adviser to multinational corporations and author Age: 67 Education: • Bachelor’s degree in human biology, Johns Hopkins University, 1964 • PhD in anatomy and brain research, University of California at Los Angeles, 1968 • Master of sciences in management, MIT Sloan School of Management, 1980 Career: • President and co-owner of The Geneva Companies, a US leading mergers and acquisitions company (sold to Citigroup in 2001) • Chairman, The Kuhn Foundation, which produces documentaries on scientific and philosophical questions as well as on China issues • Author of The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin and How China’s Leaders Think, as well as 25 books on business strategy, finance and investment banking Books: The Inflationary Universe: The Quest for a New Theory of Cosmic Origins by Alan H. Guth, Lake Views: This World and the Universe by Steven L. Weinberg, The Coherence of Theism by Richard Swinburne, and Infinite Minds: A Philosophical Cosmology by John Leslie. Books on consciousness by John R. Searle, David J. Chalmers and Colin McGinn. Film: Khachaturian (2003, directed by Peter Rosen; Dora Serviarian-Kuhn, executive producer) Music: Piano Concerto in D-flat Major by Aram Khachaturian (1903-78) played by Kuhn’s wife Dora Serviarian-Kuhn Food: “I eat tofu all the time. I appreciate the unbelievably different textures.” “Western media takes China’s very real problems and reports them as if they were, say, 80 percent of China’s story. I take the same problems — which are genuine and often intractable — and they consist of, say, 35 percent of my work,” he says. “It is not that Western media is conspiratorially biased or always anti-China, it is that they often do not provide proper and sufficient context,” he says. Huang Tiantian, Dong Fangyu and Zheng Yibing contributed to this story. B6 COVER STORY Sunday 25 November 2012 Shanghai Daily On a mission to explain ‘real’ China Above: “How China’s Leaders Think” Right: “The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin” “ I don’t try to make anybody happy, but I just want to tell the truth. I can be wrong, and maybe my truth is not balanced. Lu Feiran China expert and American public intellectual, Robert Lawrence Kuhn is best known in China for two books about Chinese leaders and their views, including a biography of former President Jiang Zemin in 2005 and one about other leaders and their thinking in 2009. Kuhn, also an investment banker, business consultant, brain scientist and philosopher, has been granted unprecedented access to Chinese leaders, though he does not speak Chinese. His biography “The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin” published in both Chinese and English, was a best-seller in China where readers are not accustomed to humanized biographies of leaders. It was probably the first biography written by a foreigner about a living Chinese leader that was published in China. Kuhn has also produced documentaries on China, written extensively for Chinese media and is often quoted by western media. He is a contributor and consultant to CCTV, some Chinese newspapers and the Xinhua News Agency. Kuhn sees his mission as telling the world about the real China. He was in Shanghai late last month for an International Channel Shanghai (ICS) program he co-produced and wrote about China’s challenges, in conjunction with the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. He held a press conference and also spoke with Shanghai Daily. Chinese media sometimes accuse some Westerners and Western media of China bashing, saying they misunderstand or are even malevolent. But 68-year-old Kuhn, a New Yorker, is believed to have a more neutral view for China. He received a bachelor’s degree in human biology from Johns Hopkins University, a master’s of science in management from the MIT Sloan School of Management, and a PhD in anatomy and brain research from UCLA. His books were published by the Shanghai Translation Publishing House and Shanghai Century Publishing Group. Kuhn said he “never tried to please the Chinese government, though Western media thought I did.” “I like feedback, including negative feedback, because I know that people are engaged,” he told Shanghai Daily. “I don’t try to make anybody happy, but I just want to tell the truth. I can be wrong, and maybe my truth is not balanced.” Kuhn’s experience with China started in 1989, when he was invited by former State Councilor Song Jian, director of the State Science and Technology Commission. The two became friends and Kuhn began traveling between the US and China, getting to know government officials and ordinary people. Kuhn said he felt frustrated because his experience in China differed from the description in much of the Western media. “Then they only focused on the negative side and ignored the rest,” he said. That disparity inspired him to write Jiang’s biography, he said. Jiang himself said that Kuhn didn’t “beautify” him and got his wedding date wrong. Kuhn spent four years writing “The Man Who Changed China.” Though he had only met Jiang three times and did not interview him for the book, he talked to many people close to Jiang, including relatives, friends and colleagues, gathering stories and perceptions. He became close to many of them. “I thought I had been rather familiar with China before I started working on the book,” said Kuhn. “But after I started collecting the information, I found that my knowledge was very limited.” Humanized leader Kuhn said he was determined to depict a real, animated Jiang, different from the seemingly impassive figure appearing on state occasions, on Chinese TV and in newspapers. “For a very long time, Chinese leaders were either described as God or the Devil, but never in-between,” he said. “So I expected to display a Chinese leader who is a human being.” Soon after publication, it became a best-seller in China. After Kuhn held a book-signing in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, more than 300 books were sold in an hour. In Shanghai, more than a million copies were sold in 2005, the highest in the social science category. Chinese readers called the book refreshing because it told daily life stories and described Jiang’s youth. One Internet user called “Burn the scarecrow” said before reading the biography, he thought Jiang was “a quiet man standing high above the masses.” “But after reading the book, my first feeling was that he was once young like us and he is also an ordinary man.” The English version, however, received some criticism, primarily that Kuhn was “fawning” over Jiang and the government. Kuhn denied that. “In fact, the book had a disclaimer, saying all Wisdom comes with Global People 读环球人物获人生智慧 第 32 期总第 201 期 2012 年 12 月 6 日 美国将军腐化生活 罗阳 , 没喝上最后的庆功酒何亮亮 :“ 廉政公署不可复制 ” 苹果设计团队的秘密领袖有种气质叫 “ 桂纶镁 ” www.globalpeople.com.cn 售价人民币 10 元港币 20 元邮发代号 :82-667 COVER PEOPLE 封面人物 情地与他们聊天 , 再从庞杂的素材中挑选自己需要的故事 …… 库恩坦言 , 在写这本书的过程中 , 自己与江泽民仅仅在公开场合见过 3 次面。 “1993 年 , 江泽民对古巴进行国事访问 , 住在古巴国宾馆 , 当时 , 我也在那里。我站在走廊上 , 而他正好也走了出来。那是我们的第一次见面。 ”2000 年 9 月 , 江泽民赴纽约参加联合国千禧年首脑峰会 , 他在一次招待会上第二次见到江泽民。 3 年后 , 库恩又在北京听了江泽民关于几个重要问题的讲话。尽管没采访到江泽民本人 , 库恩却并不觉得有什么遗憾。在他看来 , 这本书只是传记而非自传 , 没必要非采访到本人。为了完成这本书 , 库恩总是随身带着手提电脑 , 一有空就开始写作 , 从周一到周五 , 他常常工作至凌晨。每当他在吃完饭后一头钻进书房 , 妻子总会调侃他 “ 又去见江泽民了 ”。整整 4 年 ,3 次重写 ,5 次编辑 , 库恩光资料就搜集了 3000 万字 , 第一稿 70 万字 …… 2005 年 , 一本 47 万字的《他改变了中国 —— 江泽民传》出版。首批印刷的 20 2006 年 3 月 , 库恩在浙江与习近平会谈。万册 , 仅 10 多天就销售一空。为新书做巡回推广时 , 由于签名数量太多 , 库恩的手肘甚至有些劳损 ,“ 影响了打网球 ”。走访中国 40 多个城市《他改变了中国—— 江泽民传》的成功 , 让库恩有了进一步探寻中国整体形象的想法。他于是带着助手 , 开始走访中国 40 多个城市 , 进行深入的、大规模的调查研究。就是在这次调研过程中 ,2005 年 2 月 26 日 , 库恩在浙江西子宾馆见到了时任浙江省委书记习近平。习近平向库恩介绍了浙江的经济、历史和文化等方面的情况 , 并感谢库恩多年来从自己独到的角度研究中国、向世界介绍中国 , 在中美两国之间搭起了文化的桥梁。次年 3 月 , 库恩再次来到浙江 , 这一次 , 他的目的是了解 “ 浙江模式 ”。虽然是不期而至 , 但习近平仍挤出时间与他见面。习近平说 , 自己之所以要这么做 , 是要 “ 表示我们对库恩先生关注中国、客观介绍中国的感激之意 ”。库恩回忆说 , 习近平在那次谈话中强 调了中国自改革开放以来发生的翻天覆地的变化。 “‘ 有句老话 , 士别三日当刮目相看。你一个月不来 , 半年不来 , 中国就会有很大的变化。 ’ 他又补充说 ,‘ 但如果结合中国悠久的历史来分析 , 又不会惊讶于它变化之快 , 因为我们经历了几千年才走到这一步。无论我们怎么看待这一速度 , 中国的发展变化 , 至少在一定程度上 , 是由爱国热情和民族自豪感推动的。 ’” 让库恩印象最深的是 , 在谈及如何以最好的方式向世界介绍中国时 , 习近平提出 , 中国的情况无法用简单的一句话来描述 , 或用单一的方法来概括 , 并借用中国古代寓言 “ 盲人摸象 ” 来说明这个问题。 “ 他把中国富裕的东部沿海比作大象的腿 , 而将中国广袤的西部比作大象宽阔的后背 , 认为 ‘ 象是一个完整的概念 , 必须全面地了解 , 要避免犯盲人摸象的错误 ’。 ” 对库恩来说 , 这样的比喻是新颖而有用的 , 这个说法 , 他到现在还记得。接连的调研 , 让库恩对中国有了更深入的认识。 2007 年 12 月 9 日 , 时任中宣部部长刘云山在与库恩的一次会谈中提议 , 如果由他来写一部关于中国改革 30 年的书 , 一定很有意义。库恩知道 , 这次又说到他心坎上了。库恩列出了一份庞大的采访名单 , 每次采访前 , 他会向被采访对象提供三四十个问题的采访提纲 , 后者通常会选择其中的二三十个作答。采访结束后 , 库恩再根据采访录音进行整理 , 并对其中提及的年份、数字和事实进行核实。在与 100 余位省部级官员、企业领袖和专家学者沟通交流 , 并采访了诸多改革开放的亲历者后 , 库恩用 5 个月时间完成了 80 万字的初稿。 “ 我的家人说 , 整整一年 , 他们只能看到我的后脑勺。 ” 2008 年 12 月 ,《中国 30 年 : 人类社会的一次伟大变迁》中文版在中国发行。第二年 , 为纪念新中国成立 60 周年 , 该书英文版在全球出版发行。截至目前 , 这本书是唯一由外国人详细描述中国改革开放 30 年进程的书籍。 编辑 | 张建魁肖莹美编 | 苑立荣图编 | 傅聪编审 | 刘爱成丁子 31 库恩十年十人政治□ 本刊记者凌云 讲述中国政坛 10 年变迁 . 16 . 2016 年 1 月 11 日 , 库恩在北京接受本刊记者专访。 ( 本刊记者傅聪摄 )