# entry

guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-stuff-1
title: Thoughts on Stuff #1
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-stuff-1
hash: ߚ�� m+'餦�;
content:
<p>Working on next big scientific reports, but for now, various thoughts…</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>1.</p><p>Real Intelligence (RI) is dissolving under totalitarian pressure, so AI is acquiring a competitive advantage; but AI is not actual intelligence, rather it is a front for surveillance and social-credit algorithm implementation</p><p>2.</p><p><strong>Medical myth: happy hypoxia and covid</strong> </p><p>Silent hypoxia (low blood oxygen in the absence of breathing distress) is a generic condition that routinely occurs with lung infections, depending of the pathophysiological circumstances </p><p>So-called happy hypoxia is not specific to so-called COVID-19 postulated to be caused by a virus named SARS-CoV-2  </p><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> Clinicians and influencers can come to idiotic conclusions during periods of pandemic propaganda </p><p><strong>References:</strong> </p><p><a href="https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7397783/">https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7397783</a>/</p><p><a href="https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8558242/">https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8558242/</a></p><p><a href="https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9512283/">https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9512283/</a> </p><p>3.</p><p><strong>Medical Myth: Tested positive during sickness therefore had covid</strong> </p><p>- The lateral flow assays for the covid antigen (for the presumed presence of a virus named SARS-CoV-2) are not and cannot be specific to any one pathogen, presumed viral or bacterial. </p><p>- Such presumed specificity is technological nonsense, given antigen variety and complexity, and molecular binding mechanisms. </p><p>- Also, the particular tests were approved solely for emergency use, without extensive validation, under the motives of profit and politics. </p><p>- Furthermore, there is no example known to science in which a respiratory illness could be attributed to a single specific pathogen. There is always found an entire community of pathogens acting simultaneously, in all cases objectively examined.</p><p>4.</p><p>The USA ruling elites are the only existential threat to America</p><p> and... USA dominance cannot survive the law of civilizational change (civilizations develop) </p><p>--Vladimir Putin, President of Russia</p><p> Source: Tucker Carlson interview </p><p>5.</p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/denisrancourt/status/1755810754199011734" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5bde0d0f-7266-48f7-89aa-3b8574290832_450x404.png" width="516" height="463.25333333333333" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5bde0d0f-7266-48f7-89aa-3b8574290832_450x404.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":404,"width":450,"resizeWidth":516,"bytes":41413,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":"https://twitter.com/denisrancourt/status/1755810754199011734","belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" loading="lazy" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>6.</p><p><strong>There can be little doubt that the USA-based West is in full-on totalitarianism, literally including:</strong> a Nazi war (Ukraine proxy), a mass genocide (against Gaza), gutted education, crushing of professional independence, one-party rule, overpowering propaganda, aggressive ideological enforcement, aligned courts, captured science, persecution of thought crimes, social mobbing, state-aligned corporate takeovers of all sectors, constant war mongering... </p><p>We have arrived </p><p>Did I miss something?</p><div><hr></div><p>Denis Rancourt, PhD</p><p>Co-Director, CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest (correlation-canada.org)</p><p><strong>See our articles about covid-related science here:</strong></p><p><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">https://correlation-canada.org/research/</a></p><p>My extensive personal website is here:</p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/">https://denisrancourt.ca/</a></p><p>My video interviews are here:</p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/page.php?id=12&amp;name=videos">https://denisrancourt.ca/page.php?id=12&amp;name=videos</a></p><p>My many research areas are here:</p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/page.php?id=2&amp;name=research">https://denisrancourt.ca/page.php?id=2&amp;name=research</a></p><p>My X account is here:</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/denisrancourt">https://twitter.com/denisrancourt</a></p><p><strong>Please support independent research by upgrading to paid subscription</strong></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5bde0d0f-7266-48f7-89aa-3b8574290832_450x404.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated-based
title: Pandemic of the unvaccinated based on bad science
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated-based
hash: �f^N�Iw�#�� b2
content:
<p>Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) concocted a parameter, which they denote Psi (the Greek letter, ψ). They applied their concocted Psi to incorrectly claim that the risk of infection with COVID-19 to the vaccinated is Psi-fold disproportionately due to the unvaccinated. </p><p>Their Psi parameter is mathematically ill-defined, artificially large by its design, and varies in directions contrary to what is physically possible. It is an absurd quantity introduced ad hoc, having no epidemiological basis.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>With my co-author Joseph Hickey, PhD, we rigorously proved that the Fisman et al. parameter Psi is nonsense, and we showed that its application can cause harm in society. We made our proof and demonstration in this detailed <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/comment-on-fisman-et-al-2024/">report</a>:</p><blockquote><p>Rancourt, D.G., and Hickey, J., “Comment on ‘Impact of immune evasion, waning and boosting on dynamics of population mixing between a vaccinated majority and unvaccinated minority’ by Fisman et al. (2024): Incorrect definition and application of a parameter ψ”. <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em>, Brief Report, 25 April 2024. <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/comment-on-fisman-et-al-2024/">https://correlation-canada.org/comment-on-fisman-et-al-2024/</a> (also available at several other websites)</p></blockquote><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81e533ca-edad-4b12-9a3c-d1a0e7ec08ea_768x593.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81e533ca-edad-4b12-9a3c-d1a0e7ec08ea_768x593.png" width="768" height="593" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/81e533ca-edad-4b12-9a3c-d1a0e7ec08ea_768x593.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":593,"width":768,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":159108,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Here are the Abstract, Table of Contents, and Section 1 of our <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/comment-on-fisman-et-al-2024/">report</a>:</strong></p><h1>Abstract</h1><p>We prove that Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) incorrectly define and apply a parameter ψ. They rely solely on their parameter ψ to erroneously advance that the risk of infection incurred by vaccinated persons due to contacts with unvaccinated persons is alarmingly “disproportionate”. Their faulty application of ψ would imply that the said risk increases with increasing segregation from the unvaccinated (up to complete segregation, η = 1), increases with increasing vaccination coverage (up to complete coverage, P<sub>v </sub>= 1) and increases with increasing vaccine efficacy (up to perfect vaccine efficacy, VE = 1), which is contrary to reason. We show that Fisman et al.’s published errors in applying ψ have a potential to cause harm by encouraging overly aggressive (disproportionate) public health policies and interventions.</p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff35ab2b8-7a18-43fc-95ba-c7403bdf83a4_684x378.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff35ab2b8-7a18-43fc-95ba-c7403bdf83a4_684x378.png" width="684" height="378" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f35ab2b8-7a18-43fc-95ba-c7403bdf83a4_684x378.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":378,"width":684,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":18084,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" loading="lazy" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h1>1.    Nature of the error made by Fisman et al.</h1><p>Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) modelled hypothetical COVID-19 epidemics, assuming interacting groups of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, segregated to different degrees η, between 0 and 1, where η = 1 corresponds to total segregation (zero contacts between vaccinated and unvaccinated people).</p><p>In their model, Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) have introduced a new parameter (ψ), which (to our knowledge, having examined the literature), has not been used or adopted by other modelling research groups.</p><p>Their mathematical definition of ψ can be proven to be incorrect on three grounds, which are disjunctive and individually sufficient:</p><p>(1)   ψ in its mathematical definition does not represent what Fisman et al. explicitly claim it to represent</p><p>(2)   ψ ― while claimed to represent the physical reality of risk incurred by vaccinated persons due to contacts with unvaccinated persons ― diverges to exceedingly large values in approaching model parameter bounds</p><p>(3)   ψ ― while claimed to represent the physical reality of risk incurred by vaccinated persons due to contacts with unvaccinated persons ― varies with changing model parameters in directions contrary to reason</p><p>We prove these points (1, 2 and 3) below. See Sections 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3, and also Section 5.</p><p>Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) explicitly rely on ψ for main conclusions in both their papers. They base these conclusions in their two papers solely on ψ. The conclusions do not follow from ψ values, and are also incorrect. The unfounded conclusions, if propagated, constitute a potential source of harm via thus misinformed public health policy and interventions.</p><blockquote><p>The present refutation of the Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) errors related to their introduced ψ parameter is as succinct as possible, but it is more intricate than many readers might want. This is unavoidable because of the bullshit asymmetry principle, also known as Brandolini’s law: <em>“The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it.”</em> (Gelman, 2019).</p></blockquote><p><strong>Continue reading the report <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/comment-on-fisman-et-al-2024/">here</a>.</strong></p><p>Also, political background is provided in the 2023 book “<em><a href="https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/fismans-fraud-the-rise-of-canadian-hate-science/51418287/#edition=70264972&amp;idiq=62037382">Fisman's Fraud: The Rise of Canadian Hate Science</a></em>” by Regina Watteel, PhD. In my opinion, Regina is correct to call it a fraud. </p><p>We have added proof that the Fisman et al. model design itself is incorrect. Even if we accept that <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691116174/modeling-infectious-diseases-in-humans-and-animals">epidemiological models</a> are in general relevant in this application, the Fisman et al. Psi is garbage science. The unvaccinated do not contribute Psi-fold disproportionately to infecting the vaccinated. The publishers, media and politicians who repeat the Fisman et al. studies are causing harm by spreading misinformation about a vital public health matter. </p><blockquote><p>All CORRELATION reports are here: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">https://correlation-canada.org/research/</a></p><p>Please support independent research.</p><p>And check out my extensive website: <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/">https://denisrancourt.ca/</a></p></blockquote><p>Please consider upgrading to paid subscriber, if you can. Thanks for reading!</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81e533ca-edad-4b12-9a3c-d1a0e7ec08ea_768x593.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/breaking-our-largest-study-of-its
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/breaking-our-largest-study-of-its
hash: �uZU�иT��m<U��
title:
Breaking: Our largest study of its kind "Spatiotemporal variation of excess all-cause mortality in the world during the Covid period regarding socio economic factors and medical interventions"

content:
<p><em>By Denis Rancourt, PhD, Joseph Hickey, PhD, and Prof. Christian Linard, PhD</em></p><p>I (DR) have been so busy that I have not substacked much. This is why…</p><p>On 19 July 2024 we published our research group's latest (<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">of many</a>) and massive report about excess mortality in the world during the Covid period. It is 521 pages, 40K words, &gt;600 panels of figures, top analysis, deep insights, overall understanding...</p><p>HERE IT IS: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/</a></p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85f395e3-292f-42ff-b78e-20a9baac6aa0_2985x1503.jpeg" width="1456" height="733" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/85f395e3-292f-42ff-b78e-20a9baac6aa0_2985x1503.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":733,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":252093,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":"https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/","belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>It has a 4-page <strong>Summary</strong>, a 2-paragraph <strong>Conclusion</strong>, and a detailed <strong>Table of Contents</strong>. Please take a look at the <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">original post</a> and support our independent research if you can, one way or another. </p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>We thanks CHD and PhD-scientist journalist Brenda Baletti for providing expert media coverage. Their first item is here at <em>The Defender</em>: <a href="https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/excess-death-covid-public-health-measures/">https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/excess-death-covid-public-health-measures/</a></p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/ChildrensHD/status/1814456260793684350" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54fbf6ff-3750-4a48-819a-8905017d451e_496x633.png" width="496" height="633" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/54fbf6ff-3750-4a48-819a-8905017d451e_496x633.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":633,"width":496,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":250464,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":"https://x.com/ChildrensHD/status/1814456260793684350","belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Also, <span data-attrs='{"name":"Joel Smalley","id":30382446,"type":"user","url":null,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d0f6a0a-71ff-46e1-83eb-adcf71d95590_1203x1600.jpeg","uuid":"9e92bf2d-6660-4f4a-8df2-084da66d4c57"}' data-component-name="MentionToDOM" data-sanitized-class="mention-wrap"></span> made a nice <a href="https://metatron.substack.com/p/breaking-largest-study-of-its-kind">selection from our text</a> as a descriptive summary with his selected highlights, so to save time I will simply use it here:</p><blockquote><h1>COVID-19 Excess Mortality Study</h1><p>A study by conducted by researchers from the Canadian nonprofit Correlation Research in the Public Interest and the University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières, led by Denis Rancourt, released on July 19, 2024, analyzed excess mortality in 125 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><h2>Paper Summary</h2><p>The spatiotemporal variations in national excess all-cause mortality rates allow us to conclude that the Covid-period (2020-2023) excess all-cause mortality in the world is incompatible with a pandemic viral respiratory disease as a primary cause of death. This hypothesis, although believed to be supported by testing campaigns, should be abandoned.</p><p>[…]</p><p>We describe plausible mechanisms and argue that the three primary causes of death associated with the excess all-cause mortality during (and after) the Covid period are:</p><ul><li><p>Biological (including psychological) stress from mandates such as lockdowns and associated socio-economic structural changes</p></li><li><p><strong>Non-COVID-19-vaccine medical interventions such as mechanical ventilators and drugs (including denial of treatment with antibiotics)</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>COVID-19 vaccine injection rollouts, including repeated rollouts on the same populations.</strong></p></li></ul><p>We studied all-cause mortality in 125 countries with available all-cause mortality data by time (week or month), starting several years prior to the declared pandemic, and for up 2 to and more than three years of the Covid period (2020-2023).</p><p>The studied countries are on six continents and comprise approximately 35 % of the global population (2.70 billion of 7.76 billion, in 2019). The overall excess all-cause mortality rate in the 93 countries with sufficient data in the 3-year period 2020-2022 is 0.392 ± 0.002 % of 2021 population, which is comparable to the historic rate of approximately 0.97 % of population over the course of the 1918“Spanish Flu” pandemic.</p><p>By comparison, India (which is not included in the present study) had an April-July 2021 peak in excess all-cause mortality of 3.7 million deaths for its 2021 population of approximately 1.41 billion, which corresponds to an excess death rate of 0.26 % for 2021 alone (Rancourt, 2022).</p><p>Our calculated excess mortality rate (0.392 ± 0.002 %) corresponds to 30.9 ± 0.2 million excess deaths projected to have occurred globally for the 3-year period 2020-2022, from all causes of excess mortality during this period.</p><p>We also calculate the population-wide risk of death per injection (vDFR) by dose number (1st dose, 2nd dose, boosters) (actually, by time period), and by age (in a subset of European countries). Using the median value of all-ages vDFR for 2021-2022 for the 78 countries with sufficient data gives an estimated projected global all-ages excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts up to 30 December 2022: 16.9 million COVID-19-vaccine-associated deaths.</p><p>Large differences in excess all-cause mortality rate (by population) and in age-and health-status-adjusted (P-score) mortality are incompatible with a viral pandemic spread hypothesis and are strongly associated with the combination (product) of share of population that is elderly (60+ years) and share of population living in poverty. There are large North-South (Canada-USA-Mexico) differences in North America, and large East-West differences in Europe, which are due to large national jurisdictional differences, or discontinuities in socio-economic and institutional conditions.</p><p>Such systematic differences in mortality and underlying structure are captured by hierarchical cluster analysis using a panel of (yearly) time series, including to some extent the likelihood of persistent excess all-cause mortality into 2023. Excluding borderline cases, 28 countries (of 79 countries with sufficient data, 35% of countries) have a high statistical certainty of persistent and significant excess all-cause mortality into 2023, compared to the extrapolated pre-Covid historic trend, excluding excess all-cause mortality from peak residuals extending out from 2022, and excluding accidentally large values: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and USA. More research is needed to elucidate this phenomenon.</p><p>The spatiotemporal variations in national excess all-cause mortality rates allow us to conclude that the Covid-period (2020-2023) excess all-cause mortality in the world is incompatible with a pandemic viral respiratory disease as a primary cause of death.</p><p>This hypothesis, although believed to be supported by testing campaigns, should be abandoned. Inconsistencies that disprove the hypothesis of a viral respiratory pandemic to explain excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period are seen on a global scale and include the following.</p><ul><li><p>Near-synchronicity of onset, across several continents, of surges in excess mortality occurring immediately when a pandemic is declared by the WHO (11 March 2020), and never prior to pandemic announcement in any country</p></li><li><p>Excessively large country-to-country heterogeneity of the age-and-health-status adjusted (P-score) mortality during the Covid period, including across shared borders between adjacent countries, and including in all time periods down to half years</p></li><li><p>Highly time variable age-and-health-status-adjusted (P-score) mortality in individual countries during and after the Covid period, including more-than-yearlong periods of zero excess mortality, long-duration plateaus or regimes of high excess mortality, single peaks versus many recurring peaks, and persistent high excess mortality after a pandemic is declared to have ended (5 May 2023)</p></li><li><p>Strong correlations (all-country scatter plots) between excess all-cause mortality rates and socio-economic factors (esp. measures of poverty) change with time (by year and half year) during the Covid period, between diametrically opposite values (near-zero, large and positive, large and negative) of the Pearson correlation coefficient (e.g., Figure 29, first half of 2020 to first half of 2023)</p></li></ul><p>One might tentatively add:</p><ul><li><p>No evidence of the large vaccine rollouts ever being associated with reductions in excess all-cause mortality, in any country (and see Rancourt and Hickey, 2023)</p></li><li><p>Exponential increases with age in excess all-cause mortality rate (by population), consistent with age-dominant frailty rather than infection in the limit of high virulence</p></li></ul><p>We describe plausible mechanisms and argue that the three primary causes of death associated with the excess all-cause mortality during (and after) the Covid period are:<br><br>(1) Biological (including psychological) stress from mandates such as lockdowns and associated socio-economic structural changes<br><br>(2) Non-COVID-19-vaccine medical interventions such as mechanical ventilators and drugs (including denial of treatment with antibiotics)<br><br>(3) COVID-19 vaccine injection rollouts, including repeated rollouts on the same populations</p><p>In all cases ― for all three identified primary causes of death ― a proximal or clinical cause of death associated (such as on death certificates) with the quantified excess all-cause mortality is respiratory condition or infection. Therefore, we distinguish (and define) true primary causes of death from the pervasive and accompanying proximal or clinical cause of death as respiratory.</p><p><strong>We understand the Covid-period mortality catastrophe to be precisely what happens when governments cause global disruptions and assaults against populations.</strong></p><p>We emphasize the importance of biological stress from sudden and profound structural societal changes and of medical assaults (including denial of treatment for bacterial pneumonias, repeated vaccine injections, etc.).</p><p>We estimate that such a campaign of disruptions and assaults in a modern world will produce a global all-ages mortality rate of &gt;0.1% of population per year, as was also the case in the 1918 mortality catastrophe.</p></blockquote>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85f395e3-292f-42ff-b78e-20a9baac6aa0_2985x1503.jpeg","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/my-presentation-to-the-expert-scientists
title: My presentation to the expert scientists at Doctors For COVID Ethics
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/my-presentation-to-the-expert-scientists
hash: Z��]�6WZ���·q
content:
<p>Here is my August 1, 2024 presentation to the good scientists at <em>Doctors For COVID Ethics</em> about our latest published report with co-authors Dr. Joseph Hickey and Prof. Christian Linard.</p><blockquote><p>Impossible to cover <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">the entire 521-page report</a> so this is a pithy selection.</p><p>Don’t miss the hard-hitting conclusions at the very end of the video.</p></blockquote><p></p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>Source:</strong> <a href="https://rumble.com/v59xe8s-spatiotemporal-variation-of-excess-all-cause-mortality-in-125-countries-dur.html">https://rumble.com/v59xe8s-spatiotemporal-variation-of-excess-all-cause-mortality-in-125-countries-dur.html</a> </p><p><strong>Venue:</strong> https://doctors4covidethics.org/</p><p><strong>This is our report in question:</strong> </p><div data-attrs='{"nodeId":"1d3a1fc6-6d62-4bbc-99e5-e0fd9c992fc2","caption":"By Denis Rancourt, PhD, Joseph Hickey, PhD, and Prof. Christian Linard, PhD","size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"Breaking: Our largest study of its kind \"Spatiotemporal variation of excess all-cause mortality in the world during the Covid period regarding socio economic factors and medical interventions\"","publishedBylines":[{"id":118089907,"name":"Denis Rancourt","bio":"Interdisciplinary researcher. PhD in Physics.","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67aac842-e4a3-4d41-8b7e-4392f14841a4_1440x1080.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100},{"id":29382285,"name":"CORRELATION","bio":"CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest is a registered not-for-profit organization conducting independent scientific research on topics of public interest. https://correlation-canada.org","photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/88087bbd-6df5-4524-bef2-a63080e3ec8a_470x470.png","is_guest":true,"bestseller_tier":null,"primaryPublicationSubscribeUrl":"https://correlationresearch.substack.com/subscribe?","primaryPublicationUrl":"https://correlationresearch.substack.com","primaryPublicationName":"CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest","primaryPublicationId":2441095},{"id":69704676,"name":"No One","bio":null,"photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5b25ab63-89cc-4bdd-8968-5a83d70cecf7_1450x2200.jpeg","is_guest":true,"bestseller_tier":null}],"post_date":"2024-07-20T19:25:26.951Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85f395e3-292f-42ff-b78e-20a9baac6aa0_2985x1503.jpeg","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/breaking-our-largest-study-of-its","section_name":null,"id":146825109,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":594,"comment_count":134,"publication_name":"Denis’s Substack","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F11a809f5-18dd-42bd-a8b5-be9d66c49bb7_372x372.png","belowTheFold":false}' data-sanitized-class="digest-post-embed"></div><p>We have several more large fundamental reports in production.</p><p>Please consider upgrading to paid subscriber and/or <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/donate/">support CORRELATION directly</a>.</p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/147471688/19abc49accf7a8bb00d89150e18e4fa0.mp3","type":"audio/mpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/coming-soon-denis-rancourt-at-an
title: Coming Soon: Denis Rancourt at "An Injection of Truth 2.0", Calgary, Alberta, Canada
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/coming-soon-denis-rancourt-at-an
hash: w�_�䖦:��NEL��
content:
<p><em>I will give our research group’s recent, latest and new results about Covid-period all-cause mortality, by live conference and streamed on 28 October 2024, in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. There will be many new graphs, in <a href="https://aninjectionoftruth.ca/professor-denis-g-rancourt/">a fully integrated presentation</a> for an in-house audience of 500+ and streamed. Enjoy the detailed summary below and links.</em></p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://aninjectionoftruth.ca/" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F654edc72-36d9-4633-83ae-16bfdb8f1589_513x421.png" width="513" height="421" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/654edc72-36d9-4633-83ae-16bfdb8f1589_513x421.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":421,"width":513,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":269846,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":"https://aninjectionoftruth.ca/","belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h1><strong>ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY DURING THE COVID PERIOD WORLD-WIDE AND IN CANADA AND ALBERTA</strong></h1><blockquote><p><strong>Professor Denis G. Rancourt, B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D.</strong></p><p><strong>Interdisciplinary scientist<br>Former tenured Full Professor of Physics, University of Ottawa, Canada<br>Researcher, CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</strong></p></blockquote><h2><a href="https://aninjectionoftruth.ca/professor-denis-g-rancourt/">SUMMARY</a>:</h2><p>The most robust population health measure in epidemiology is all-cause mortality, because death is definitive. Death statistics (number, age, sex, location, status at death), unlike attributions of cause of death, are not susceptible to bias or counting error. Excess all-cause mortality is unambiguously associated with surges in fatal societal stress, from events such as wars, severe economic depressions, degradations of living conditions, epidemics, earthquakes, toxic spills, intense summer heat-waves, and winter hardships.</p><p>Since early 2020, Dr. Denis Rancourt and his collaborators have studied all-cause mortality by time (day, week, month, year) in hundreds of local and national jurisdictions. They have published some 30 scientific reports related to the Covid period (<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">https://correlation-canada.org/research/</a>) (<a href="https://ocla.ca/covid/">https://ocla.ca/covid/</a>). Dr. Rancourt was the first (2 June 2020: “<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/no-plague-mass-homicide-2020/">All‑cause mortality during COVID-19: No plague and a likely signature of mass homicide by government response</a>”) to prove that the so-called March-May 2020 “1st wave” of presumed COVID-19 deaths could not be due to a spreading viral respiratory disease but instead coincided with the 11 March 2020 political announcement of a pandemic, aggressive government measures, and deadly hospital treatment protocols.</p><p>Dr. Rancourt and collaborators went on to establish many results worldwide:</p><ul><li><p>proven absence of spread (not a viral pandemic ― no evidence for a virulent new spreading pathogen)</p></li><li><p>highly heterogeneous excess mortality rates across jurisdictions</p></li><li><p>strong associations of excess mortality to lockdowns and political measures, in otherwise identical neighboring states</p></li><li><p>strong correlations of excess mortality to age, poverty and disability</p></li><li><p>striking impact on young adults, especially males, associated with economic hardship, including in Alberta, Canada</p></li><li><p>worldwide temporal associations between rapid vaccine booster rollouts and peaks in excess all‑cause mortality, exponential with age</p></li><li><p>global excess mortality in the Covid period (2020-2022): 31 million</p></li><li><p>global excess mortality associated with the vaccine rollouts: 17 million (to date)</p></li><li><p>persistent excess all-cause mortality into 2023 in many highly-vaccinated Western countries, including Canada</p></li><li><p>rigorous debunking of false scientific claims that the vaccines and measures “saved millions of lives” (or any lives), in Canada and in the world</p></li><li><p>rigorous dismantling of the Fisman et al.’s claims that the unvaccinated disproportionately harm the vaccinated</p></li><li><p>theoretical epidemiological proof that isolation and segregation are the most harmful policies for seniors during pandemic circumstances</p></li></ul><p>Whereas respiratory conditions are associated with the excess deaths (are present at death), Rancourt and collaborators conclude that the said respiratory conditions were not induced by a pandemic-causing virus, and were generally bacterial and fungal while not being treated as such (antibiotics and established treatment protocols were universally denied).</p><p>Rancourt and collaborators distinguish proximal or apparent causes of death and actual or “primary” causes of death. They argue that the primary causes of all excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period were:</p><ul><li><p>Biological (including psychological) stress from mandates such as lockdowns and associated socio-economic structural changes</p></li><li><p>Medical interventions other than vaccines, such as mechanical ventilators and drugs (including denial of treatment with antibiotics)</p></li><li><p>COVID-19 vaccine injection rollouts, including repeated rollouts on the same populations</p></li></ul><blockquote><p><em>Now if that is mortality… imagine the magnitude of associated disability, trauma, chronic ailments, and pain…</em></p></blockquote><p>Please support <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">our sustained scientific research</a> by subscribing, and by upgrading to paid subscription if you can. Every dollar multiplies our on-going research work. Donations and regular support can also be sent directly to our non-profit <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em> <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/donate/">HERE</a>.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F654edc72-36d9-4633-83ae-16bfdb8f1589_513x421.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/questioning-the-global-pandemic-response
title: Questioning the Global Pandemic-Response Structure
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/questioning-the-global-pandemic-response
hash: �g�~��ݞ/UZz="
content:
<p>Read my 9 July 2021 post that Blogger deleted yesterday </p><p>Below is the full text of my short now-deleted post, and related images</p><p>Censorship and deplatforming are characteristics of a totalitarian state</p><p>(I have been permanently deplatformed from several main professional and scientific venues, and my work has been extensively deleted from YouTube, Facebook, and scientific journals and media — for being objective about Covid-period measures and vaccines — not to mention regular “fact checking” and personal attacks.) </p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>Title: Questioning the Global Pandemic-Response Structure</strong> </p><blockquote><p>IN MY OPINION: </p><p>COVID, Swine Flu, Avian Flu, SARS... </p><p>Objective harm analysis proves that the "pandemic" global-response structure should be dismantled. </p><p>The said structure is a political instrument for globalism, colonialism, and publicly-funded Pharma mega profits, disconnected from reality for viral respiratory diseases. </p><p>The pandemic responses have been unjustified and harmful disasters. </p><p>Furthermore, looking at all-cause mortality by time (by day, week or month), across all nations with seasonal winter-burden deaths, since WWII, the declared "pandemics" are not statistically different from the "non-pandemics", which is a hard scientific fact. </p><p>I conclude that "pandemic" is a fictitious phenomenon, a word used to instill fear and to manipulate for power and profit. </p><p>Denis Rancourt 9 July 2021 </p><p>Related suggested reading: 'Virus Mania' book by Torsten Engelbrecht and Claus Kohnlein</p></blockquote><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9f09a5f-2308-489a-8139-4b7c999019d5_776x599.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9f09a5f-2308-489a-8139-4b7c999019d5_776x599.png" width="776" height="599" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b9f09a5f-2308-489a-8139-4b7c999019d5_776x599.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":599,"width":776,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":158212,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73f77e6d-b1bd-4b1e-bba7-f61b827f5a50_568x428.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73f77e6d-b1bd-4b1e-bba7-f61b827f5a50_568x428.png" width="568" height="428" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/73f77e6d-b1bd-4b1e-bba7-f61b827f5a50_568x428.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":428,"width":568,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":44222,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e9e956b-2417-472f-8e8f-9204a90983ce_795x574.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e9e956b-2417-472f-8e8f-9204a90983ce_795x574.png" width="795" height="574" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9e9e956b-2417-472f-8e8f-9204a90983ce_795x574.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":574,"width":795,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":95104,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" loading="lazy" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Sorry for not posting much these days… working on our next large reports… at <em><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">Correlation</a> </em><span data-attrs='{"name":"CORRELATION","id":29382285,"type":"user","url":null,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88087bbd-6df5-4524-bef2-a63080e3ec8a_470x470.png","uuid":"3af91cdf-eb4b-494c-bad8-fb5a98eba6fd"}' data-component-name="MentionToDOM" data-sanitized-class="mention-wrap"></span> </p><p>Please consider upgrading to paid membership, in support of my independent research. Cheers, DR</p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9f09a5f-2308-489a-8139-4b7c999019d5_776x599.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/germ-theory-critical-excess
title: Germ theory critical excess?
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/germ-theory-critical-excess
hash: #��� �� �f ]�l�
content:
<p>I am sympathetic to the view that human-contagious-disease-causing viruses have not been demonstrated to exist. So far, these demonstrations have not convinced me, despite my earnest study.</p><p>I tend to agree with the Drs Bailey who have laid out their views on this and many aspects of the Corona declared pandemic in their brilliant new (and amply referenced) small book “<a href="https://drsambailey.com/the-final-pandemic/">The Final Pandemic</a>”. And I tend to agree with the most influential critical textbooks on the question, which I have <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=123&amp;name=2022_10_29_blogpost_recommended_books_critical_of_the_virus_magic_bullet_and_vaccine_theories">listed here</a>.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>I am a career scientist with deep relevant expertise: <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/page.php?id=3&amp;name=cv">CV and description of expertise</a>. I ran a large university research group and had an electron microscope and many spectrometers and other instruments in my well-funded laboratory. I specialized, among many areas, in environmental nanoparticles, including their interactions with bacteria.</p><p>Anyway, after reading many state-of-the-art science articles about disease-causing virus “isolation” and characterization, I remain firmly unconvinced. </p><p>The main counter argument to my skepticism appears to be that PCR genome characterization is robust and specific. I plan to deep dive into PCR technology, eventually, but right now I am far from convinced of that counter argument also. </p><p>I remain highly suspicious of a wet chemical method (PCR) that relies on controlled thermal degradation to amplify a molecular fragment a kazillion times, which could not otherwise be detected. And I remain skeptical that thus obtained genome sequences are particularly relevant to biology. That’s me.</p><p>I mean, I think the PCR jockeys and the molecular-theory immunologists take up way too much space. And of course they are rewarded for their brilliant efforts.</p><p>But these are not my main topic today. Today, I want to say that I think some of the criticism of “germ theory” goes too far.</p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdaa04cfe-ee21-4d74-8d14-52366c1aa5d2_986x551.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdaa04cfe-ee21-4d74-8d14-52366c1aa5d2_986x551.png" width="986" height="551" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/daa04cfe-ee21-4d74-8d14-52366c1aa5d2_986x551.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":551,"width":986,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":774707,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" loading="lazy" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p> I have heard Tom Cowan and Andy Kaufman in particular insist that bacteria cannot cause harm or disease but are only present as the body’s helpers to breakdown and remove dead or defective tissue. In their view, as I understand it, the causes of ill-health are never germs and bacteria are only waiting to play a beneficial role.</p><p>Of course I agree that the primary cause of ill-health is not germs: </p><div data-attrs='{"nodeId":"408e106e-c64d-4e32-b631-604712c4c417","caption":"A short presentation I gave to ICS4 delegates in Bucharest, Romania, on 17 November 2023… Video produced by Dr. Jeremie Mercier. We recorded this on the fly, in a closed door session, with permission from the organizers.","size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"Fundamental nature of health","publishedBylines":[{"id":118089907,"name":"Denis Rancourt","bio":"Interdisciplinary researcher. PhD in Physics.","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67aac842-e4a3-4d41-8b7e-4392f14841a4_1440x1080.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100}],"post_date":"2023-11-29T02:31:45.374Z","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07090b74-7904-452a-8148-24e1783afbcb_824x433.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/fundamental-nature-of-health","section_name":null,"id":139253924,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":86,"comment_count":27,"publication_name":"Denis’s Substack","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F11a809f5-18dd-42bd-a8b5-be9d66c49bb7_372x372.png","belowTheFold":true}' data-sanitized-class="digest-post-embed"></div><p>However, I also believe that our bodies host complex gut and respiratory tract microbiomes, and that these microbiomes of bacteria and fungi can seriously depart from being healthy and working for the good of the host organism (you).</p><p>One can argue that any such imbalance is always caused by something other than the germs involved, and that the body has been put out of balance by external factors. I don’t believe it can be that simple. I have studied too many examples of non-linear transitions to think that the body is robust in a friendly environment. Nobody, for example, has figured out how not to die.</p><p>I have little doubt that antibiotics (including ivermectin) can save the lives of many who would probably die otherwise. My collaborators and I studied this in the USA during the Covid period, when antibiotics were systemically denied: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/Mortality-public-health-disaster-USA/">here</a>. </p><p>This shows the potential for run-away germ attacks that can be interrupted or reset by chemical intervention. </p><p>Leading anthropologists tell us that the dominant cause of death throughout virtually all of human history has been infections, typically following injuries from fights, not to mention rather aggressive parasites that don’t increase longevity. There may be an evolutionary reason that humans so dread invisible bodily threats.</p><p>There, I said it. I think some of our critical thinking friends maybe go too far? </p><p><em>This is a small break from <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">our main research</a>, which is ongoing! Please consider supporting our efforts by becoming a paid subscriber or a new free subscriber, for always free content.</em></p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>  </p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdaa04cfe-ee21-4d74-8d14-52366c1aa5d2_986x551.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/arms-sales-and-mrna-vaccine-sales
title: Arms sales and mRNA vaccine sales should both be understood as protection rackets
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/arms-sales-and-mrna-vaccine-sales
hash: �E����ա�1�]�G_
content:
<p>Both USA arms sales to “allies” and USA mRNA vaccine sales are classic protection rackets. </p><p>Wikipedia explains protection racket this way:</p><blockquote><p>A <strong>protection racket</strong> is a type of racket and a scheme of organized crime perpetrated by a potentially hazardous organized crime group that generally guarantees protection outside the sanction of the law to another entity or individual from violence, robbery, ransacking, arson, vandalism, and other such threats, in exchange for payments at regular intervals. Each payment is called "protection money" or a "protection fee". An organized crime group determines an affordable or reasonable fee by negotiating with each of its payers, to ensure that each payer can pay the fee on a regular basis and on time. Protections rackets can vary in terms of their levels of sophistication or organization; it is not uncommon for their operations to emulate the structures or methods used by tax authorities within legitimate governments to collect taxes from taxpayers.</p></blockquote><p>Sound about right?</p><p>Both technologies (military and mRNA lipid nanoparticles) are ineffective against the presupposed threats. No missile shield can protect against supersonic missiles and saturation attacks by drones, and the vaccines certainly don’t stop anything, if there was any pathogen that could be stopped.</p><p>The mRNA vaccines are super cheap to make, and the Deep State owns the patents. They are <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/vaccine-monopolies-make-cost-vaccinating-world-against-covid-least-5-times-more">sold at the highest price that any country is able to pay</a>, in US dollars of course, and the Deep State has insinuated that it makes bioweapons from which the only protection is their vaccines. Classic.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>The mRNA vaccines are now propagandized as permanently needed for population health, just as armament protection from “totalitarian states” is propagandized to be permanently needed. The Covid-vaccine sales were approximately $20-50 bn/year in 2021-2023 (approx. $10 per dose, &gt;10 bn doses), which is comparable to USA arms sales (<a href="https://www.state.gov/fiscal-year-2023-u-s-arms-transfers-and-defense-trade/">$56 bn/year average 2021-2023</a>). </p><p><a href="https://x.com/denisrancourt/status/1858893692309786941">USA geopolitical dominance doctrine is designed and driven by the Pentagon</a>, as were the Covid response and vaccine rollouts, which is now amply proven:</p><blockquote><p>Bergman (2024): Frank Bergman /// Dutch Government Official Admits Covid Pandemic Was ‘Military Operation’: ‘Ministry of Health Obeys NATO’  /// <em>Slay News</em>, 9 November 2024 ///  <a href="https://slaynews.com/news/dutch-government-official-admits-covid-pandemic-military-operation-ministry-health-obeys-nato/">https://slaynews.com/news/dutch-government-official-admits-covid-pandemic-military-operation-ministry-health-obeys-nato/</a></p></blockquote><blockquote><p>Homburg (2024): Stefan Homburg /// Whistleblow Uncovers Covid Scam /// video, YouTube Stefan Homburg channel, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@StHomburg">https://www.youtube.com/@StHomburg</a>, 5 November 2024, Berlin /// </p></blockquote><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"-j7qjedth3A","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2--j7qjedth3A" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-j7qjedth3A?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div><blockquote><p>/// <em>Description:</em> A whistleblower obtained 10GB from Robert-Koch-Institute, the German CDC. The RKI-Leak - The Federal Ministry of Health has confirmed the authenticity of the leak. Download : <a href="https://rki-transparenzbericht.de/">https://rki-transparenzbericht.de/</a> Search tool: <a href="https://www.rkileak.com/">https://www.rkileak.com/</a></p></blockquote><blockquote><p>Kennedy (2021): Robert F. Kennedy Jr. /// Chapter 12 (Germ Games): War Games: Genesis of the Biosecurity State /// pages 378-445 (incl. 297 endnotes) <strong>in:</strong> <em>The Real Anthony Fauci - Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health</em> (RF Kennedy Jr., 2021, Skyhorse Publishing, Children’s Health Defence,   ISBN: 978-1-5107-6680-8, pp. 449)</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>Von (2022): Theo Von /// Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Informs Us About A Simulated Pandemic Response Event /// video, YouTube Theo Von Clips channel, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@TheoVonClips">https://www.youtube.com/@TheoVonClips</a>, 9 May 2022, #TheoVonClips /// </p></blockquote><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"AnKlKiLhdew","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-AnKlKiLhdew" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/AnKlKiLhdew?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div><blockquote><p>/// Description: Excerpt from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | TPW 370</p></blockquote><p>Oh, but China “this and that” you say (responsible or directed by the same hidden hand)… Well, no, <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=108&amp;name=2022_01_12_covid19_is_a_war_measure_for_population_control_in_shadow_of_us_china_conflict_transcript_geopolitics_amp_empire">geopolitics is real</a>, and consider this video interview with Ex-Russian Intel Officer Vladimir Kvachkov: <a href="https://x.com/denisrancourt/status/1858238602297188626">https://x.com/denisrancourt/status/1858238602297188626</a></p><p>In Kvachkov's words: </p><blockquote><p>"In China, they introduced strict measures. But, then comrade Xi went to Wuhan and put the pro-American party faction who took that road in their place. In China, not everything is smooth there. They have, let’s call them that – a pro-Chinese (patriotic) faction, that’s somewhat close to us, which is associated with Xi Jinping. And there are obviously pro-American ex-Komsomol members that are money-oriented ... And they, of course, tried to use the coronavirus in Wuhan to gain certain economic and political benefits. Comrade Xi put them all in their place and, consequently, in was over with the virus in China."</p></blockquote><p>The even bigger picture is that the global fossil fuel market is worth some $8 trillion (<a href="https://www.precedenceresearch.com/fossil-fuels-market">in 2024</a>) and is mostly still in-effect traded in US dollars. It is projected to grow significantly and steadily. The “climate change” scam is just a coordinated attempt to setup another protection racket. It will not prevent the USA-dominance wars over resources and trade routes, to crush those seeking sovereign development.</p><p>See my large 2019 report about that larger picture:</p><blockquote><p><strong>Rancourt DG</strong>. “<em>Geo-Economics and Geo-Politics Drive Successive Eras of Predatory Globalization and Social Engineering — Historical emergence of climate change, gender equity, and anti-racism as State doctrines</em>”. Ontario Civil Liberties Association, 2 April 2019 (78 pages), OCLA Report 2019-1 | April 2019, <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=23">https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=23</a>  </p></blockquote><p>In conclusion, beware the USA Deep State protection rackets. Do not comply with the medical, climate, etc. dystopian demands. Be political.</p><p><em>This is a small break from <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">our main research</a>, which is ongoing! Please consider supporting our efforts by becoming a paid subscriber or a new free subscriber, for always free content. Tell your friends and contacts about my substack.</em></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/-j7qjedth3A","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics
title: Medical Hypothesis: Respiratory epidemics and pandemics without viral transmission
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics
hash: `o��Fԉ�K����2�
content:
<blockquote><p><em><strong>Citation:</strong> Rancourt, DG.</em> <em>Medical Hypothesis: Respiratory epidemics and pandemics without viral transmission. CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest, Report, 02 December 2024. <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/respiratory-epidemics-without-viral-transmission/">https://correlation-canada.org/respiratory-epidemics-without-viral-transmission/</a></em></p></blockquote><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d14ad2-c232-4f25-b0c4-b50a1991cb36_1920x1527.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d14ad2-c232-4f25-b0c4-b50a1991cb36_1920x1527.jpeg" width="1456" height="1158" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d6d14ad2-c232-4f25-b0c4-b50a1991cb36_1920x1527.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1158,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":913260,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h1>Summary</h1><p>The spatiotemporal all-cause mortality (weekly time resolution, &gt;100 jurisdictions) during the Covid period (the period of the declared pandemic, 2020-2023) disproves that the excess deaths could have been caused by the spreading contagion of any novel virus or its postulated variants (Rancourt et al., 2024).</p><p>What then caused the estimated 31 million excess deaths worldwide (Rancourt et al., 2024)?</p><p>In this paper, I systematically present many facets (based on the existing scientific literature) of my overall hypothesis whereby the Covid-period pandemic of mortality was a pandemic of transmissionless self-infection bacterial pneumonias induced by biological stress (in the sense of medical researcher Hans Selye, which includes psychological stress) arising from the coordinated and largescale mandates, measures, so-called responses, and medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and vaccination.</p><p>Transmissionless self-infection bacterial pneumonias are normally prevalent in the geriatric context, where they are known as aspiration pneumonia. Transmissionless pneumonias do not rely on person-to-person transmission or contagion but rather are associated with the stressed or assaulted respiratory tract microbiome.</p><p>My contribution is to advance that the likelihood of fatal transmissionless pneumonias in the elderly and persons with comorbidities increases significantly with environmental changes or assaults that cause biological stress, and to describe several mechanisms. My hypothesis is that this proposed phenomenon is amply sufficient to cause epidemics, pandemics and seasonal mortality, always targeting the frail and sick, and that Covid was exactly such a case, completely caused by institutions and governments.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>Table of Contents</strong></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042101">Summary. 1</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042102">1 Introduction.. 3</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042103">2 An epidemiological phenomenon in need of explanation.. 6</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042104">3 What are possible causes and what are causes that can be ruled out?. 7</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042105">3.1 Primary cause of death versus associated diseases or conditions. 8</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042106">3.2 Inferred respiratory medical conditions in the deaths contributing to Covid-period excess all-cause mortality. 10</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042107">3.3 Primary causes of death in excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period. 15</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042108">3.3.1 Ruled out: SARS-CoV-2 as a primary cause of death.. 15</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042109">3.3.2 Hypothesis: Sudden and extraordinary stress from mandates and measures. 16</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042110">3.3.3 Hypothesis: Collectively amplified individual biological stress. 20</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042111">3.3.4 Hypothesis: Assaults from extraordinary medical interventions other than COVID‑19 vaccination.. 21</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042112">3.3.5 Hypothesis: Assaults by COVID-19 vaccination.. 22</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042113">3.3.6 Hypothesis: Assaults from campaigns and measures associated in time and place with COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. 30</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042114">3.3.7 Discerning the COVID-19 vaccination and rollout-associated assault primary causes 32</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042115">3.3.8 Hypothesis: Increased stressors cause surges in spontaneous microbial respiratory self-infection (aspiration pneumonia) 33</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042116">3.3.9 Hypothesis: Spontaneous microbial respiratory self-infection (spontaneous pneumonia) without aspiration.. 38</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042117">3.4 Is a pandemic of transmissionless bacterial pneumonia possible?. 38</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042118">3.5 Has a pandemic-causing viral respiratory pathogen ever existed?. 41</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042119">4 Conclusion.. 44</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042120">Acknowledgements. 46</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics#_Toc184042121">References. 46</a></p><h1>1 Introduction</h1><p>The dominant (industry-promoted) paradigm of a pandemic is that a novel virulent pathogen emerges randomly or by design and spreads from person to person to many places, causing death. The latest twist is that the said novel pathogen immediately spawns genetic variants of itself, causing cascading pandemics in succession over the same territories visited by the parent pathogen.</p><p>The long-term so-called solution advanced by the industry and governments is to constantly vaccinate entire populations, repeatedly, to boost immunity and to address the new variants.</p><p>The end result of permanent national COVID-19 vaccine-campaign dependence resembles a protection racket. The yearly cost of these continuing vaccinations from public funds during the Covid period (2020-2023) was comparable to USA arms sales to its so-called allies.</p><p>In fact, the novel-viral spread theory of the declared Covid pandemic is disproved by a large amount of spatiotemporal all-cause mortality data, with weekly resolution in hundreds of jurisdictions (3.3.1).</p><p>What then caused the large excess all-cause mortality worldwide during the Covid period (31 million excess deaths worldwide, Rancourt et al., 2024), and what generally causes pandemics?</p><p>Here I show that current and growing scientific knowledge published in leading journals recognizes the prevalent phenomenon of transmissionless spontaneous self-infection bacterial pneumonia. Self-infection bacterial pneumonia does not rely on person-to-person transmission but rather is associated with the stressed or assaulted respiratory tract microbiome. This is related to the area of medicine known as aspiration pneumonia, and such self-infection is consistent with the epidemiology of tuberculosis.</p><p>The somewhat geriatric-medicine-siloed phenomenon of prevalent aspiration pneumonia is confirmed by classic microbial methods and is augmented by genomic studies of the respiratory tract microbiome. A picture emerges in which stress and assaults can cause a rapid self-organized and deleterious imbalance of the respiratory tract microbiome that is fatal in the elderly or in persons with comorbidities.</p><p>This does not mean that transmission of bacterial pneumonia is not a real phenomenon; only that it is not necessary to produce epidemics or pandemics occurring in response to imposed biological stress and widespread environmental or medical assaults.</p><p>My hypothesis in this paper is to develop many facets whereby it is reasonable to conclude that the 2020-2023 Covid-period pandemic of mortality was misdiagnosed and was a pandemic of transmissionless bacterial pneumonias induced by the biological stress (which includes psychological stress) from the coordinated and largescale mandates, measures, so-called responses, and medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and vaccination. Compelling arguments in this direction were previously made by Rancourt et al. (2021a) based on USA data.</p><p>I argue that the same framework is consistent with what is known of all pandemics in history, always involving tremendous episodes of hardship and environmental and societal assaults, generalized to include skin and digestive tract microbiomes and parasites. The crux of my hypothesis also explains the synchronous seasonal patterns of large winter mortality, quantitatively observed for more than a century.</p><p>The idea that epidemics, pandemics and seasonal mortality are due to environmental and health-status factors (often discussed in terms of so-called terrain theory vs germ theory) rather than contagion is not new. In fact, it is as old as epidemiology itself (“epidemic constitutions of the atmosphere”, Sydenham, 1676). My contribution here is to postulate about the disease-producing mechanisms at the interface between the individual’s total environment (or total field, in the sense of behavioral psychology, Lewin, 1951) and the body, mechanisms that involve a person’s microbiomes and parasites.</p><p>Section 2 describes empirical data that constrains the interpretations and hypotheses. Section 3 presents the many facets of my hypothesis. Section 4 is a conclusion.</p><p>Researchers and I at CORRELATION and collaborators continue to be engaged in a broad research program of all-cause mortality and its associations with various factors: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">https://correlation-canada.org/research/</a></p><h1>2 An epidemiological phenomenon in need of explanation</h1><p>The following is a description of a particular phenomenon that motivates me to advance hypotheses about one or several of its contributing causes, and to eliminate other potential causes:</p><blockquote><p>I. A peak in excess all-cause mortality surges synchronously with the World Health Organization (WHO) 11 March 2020 declaration of a pandemic, in many national and sub-national jurisdictions (especially in the Northern Hemisphere).</p><p>II. The said peak in excess all-cause mortality (nominally March-May 2020) does not occur in many (most) jurisdictions, including in the Northern Hemisphere.</p><p>III. There are no similar peaks occurring prior to 11 March 2020, and there is essentially no detected excess all-cause mortality prior to approximately 11 March 2020 (in many years of data, in &gt;100 countries).</p><p>IV. The magnitude of the said peak in excess all-cause mortality, normalized by jurisdictional population, is highly heterogeneous across jurisdictions in which it occurs, and it is often zero (i.e., undetected).</p><p>V. There is contrary evidence of spatiotemporal spread of excess mortality in these peaks. All the said peaks occur essentially at the same time, irrespective of their differing magnitudes (normalized by jurisdictional population). The said peaks in excess all-cause mortality do not cross jurisdictional borders, do not grow into new geographic regions, and do not systematically have rising edges delayed in time as one moves away from the strongest centers of large-magnitude said peaks.</p><p>VI. High heterogeneity across jurisdictions of the magnitude of the said peak also occurs when the said peak is normalized by expected or historic baseline mortality under the peak (i.e., when it is expressed as a P-score), instead of by jurisdictional population. Since P-score excess mortality is measured in comparison to the intrinsic baseline mortality rate (by time period) in the jurisdiction, peaks expressed as P-scores include all the factors normally affecting mortality, such as age structure and prior health status. P-score mortality is thereby age and health-status adjusted.</p><p>VII. Normal mortality rates are generally exponential with age. Likewise, the mortality in the said peak is predominantly from the elderly population.</p><p>VIII. The most intense said peaks, where they occur, occur in urban regions with high poverty and high population density. However, for example, the said peak is essentially absent from Eastern European countries.</p><p>IX. The excess all-cause mortality in the said peak, in well-documented cases, is quantitatively equal to or closely matched by the number of tabulated respiratory deaths, assigned as COVID-19 deaths, in the same time period, in the given jurisdiction.</p></blockquote><p>The above-described phenomenon is well documented in many scientific reports, such as in the extensive work done by me and my collaborators (Hickey et al., in preparation; Johnson and Rancourt, 2022; Rancourt, 2020, 2022; Rancourt et al., 2020, 2021a, 2021b, 2022a, 2022b, 2022c, 2023a, 2023b, 2024; Rancourt and Hickey, 2023) (and in references therein).</p><h1>3 What are possible causes and what are causes that can be ruled out?</h1><p>In this section, I describe my present understanding of the causes of death to explain excess mortality during the Covid period, by presenting hypotheses that are either disproved (3.3.1) or consistent with (3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, 3.3.5, 3.3.6, 3.3.8, 3.3.9) the observed excess all-cause mortality (such as that described in Section 2).</p><p>In so doing, I adopt, adapt and augment the 18-page discussion about Covid-period all‑cause mortality from section 5.12 of Rancourt et al. (2024). Much of the text is taken directly from Rancourt et al. (2024), and repeated because of its relevance and importance, and to create a coherent picture.</p><p>In particular, following Rancourt et al. (2024), I make the important distinction (Section 3.1) between:</p><p>· a primary cause of death, and</p><p>· an associated or proximal cause of death.</p><p>Without this fundamental distinction between primary and proximal causes of death, the subject, in my view, is too imprecise to produce any useful insights.</p><h2>3.1 Primary cause of death versus associated diseases or conditions</h2><blockquote><p><em>“Some diseases have specific causes, the direct actions of certain particular, disease-producing agents, such as microbes, poisons, or physical injuries. Many more diseases are not caused by any one thing in particular; they result from the body’s own response to some unusual situation.”</em></p><p>― Hans Selye (Selye, 1956; p. 179)</p></blockquote><p>Given the difficulty identified by Selye, in our analysis, I (with Rancourt et al., 2024) distinguish between a “primary cause of death” (hierarchical top-level circumstances or stressors or assaults that cause an early or accelerated death, irrespective of the mechanism) and “associated diseases or conditions reported at death”, for example, on a clinical death certificate (proximal or clinical causes of death in the final moments, involving organ and organ system failures or stoppages).</p><p>For example, hypothetically, infection by a specific deadly pathogen could be a primary cause of death, where the deaths, in different individuals, might be concomitantly associated with generic conditions such as “respiratory infection” and “heart failure”, and sub-categories of such conditions.</p><p>In other examples:</p><ul><li><p>A poison leads to heart failure. Then the primary cause of death is the poison.</p></li><li><p>A poison weakens the body’s defenses, leading to a massive intestinal infection and eventual respiratory and heart co-failures. Then the primary cause of death is the poison.</p></li><li><p>Chronic biological stress causes exhaustion-phase collapse of the body’s resistance to the biological stress, and death follows (Selye, 1956). Then the primary cause of death is what caused the said chronic biological stress, which can be specific.</p></li><li><p>Chronic psychological stress causes immunosuppression, enabling a severe respiratory infection from ambient microbes and air pollution, followed by death. Then the primary cause of death is what caused the said chronic psychological stress, which can be specific.</p></li><li><p>A person is seriously ill for some reason, even dying. A medical intervention accelerates the death, and the person dies prematurely. Then the primary cause of death is the medical intervention.</p></li></ul><p>This distinction between primary and proximal causes of death aligns completely with the important conclusion of Link and Phelan (1995) who state:</p><blockquote><p>“we argue that social factors such as socioeconomic status and social support are likely ‘fundamental causes’ of disease that, because they embody access to important resources, affect multiple disease outcomes through multiple mechanisms, and consequently maintain an association with disease even when intervening mechanisms change.”</p></blockquote><h2>3.2 Inferred respiratory medical conditions in the deaths contributing to Covid-period excess all-cause mortality</h2><p>Prior to suggesting likely or possible primary causes of the deaths contributing to excess all-cause mortality, it is relevant to consider whether a dominant syndrome, disease or condition, based on reported symptoms and conditions prior to death, can be inferred to be associated with all or most excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period.</p><p>In the high-quality databases for the USA, there is a close match between the weekly reported COVID-19 mortality and weekly excess all-cause mortality, in the Covid period (2020-2022), including prior to and during the vaccine rollouts (CDC, 2023).</p><p>To the degree that COVID-19 death assignation represents a serious respiratory condition at death, and given the intricate weekly temporal matching of the reported COVID-19 mortality and excess all-cause mortality for up to 3 years in the USA data, this represents strong evidence that respiratory infections were dominantly (virtually entirely) associated with the excess all-cause mortality.</p><p>Rancourt et al. (2021a) showed this in detail, into 2021 (their Figures 34a through 34i). They also pointed out that more than half of the deaths assigned as COVID-19 deaths could include life-threatening co-occurring bacterial pneumonia, according to CDC tabulations of death certificates, and that prescriptions of antibiotics were significantly reduced in the same period. Rancourt et al. (2021a) concluded:</p><blockquote><p>“Finally, our examination of plausible mechanisms for the exceptionally large COVID-era mortality in the USA, given all our empirical observations, leads us to postulate that COVID-19 may largely be misdiagnosed bacterial pneumonia (using a faulty PCR test: Borger et al., 2021; and see Ginsburg and Klugman, 2020), that correctly assigned bacterial pneumonia itself largely goes untreated, while antibiotics (and Ivermectin) are withdrawn, in circumstances where large populations of vulnerable and susceptible residents have suppressed immune systems from chronic psychological stress induced by (“COVID response”) large-scale socio-economic disruption, and that the USA has, in the COVID-era, thus recreated the conditions that produced the horrendous bacterial pneumonia epidemic of 1918 (Morens et al., 2008) (Chien et al., 2009) (Sheng et al., 2011).”</p></blockquote><p>For the present purposes, these results (CDC, 2023; Rancourt et al., 2021a) imply that essentially all excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period is associated with life-threatening respiratory infections or conditions, rather than mainly associated with other conditions such as cancer, suicide, drug overdoses, homicide, delayed medical interventions, and accidents.</p><p>As emphasized above (Section 3.1), a dominant association to a disease or condition is separate from the question of “primary cause of death”.</p><p>Note that the proposed and apparent dominant respiratory disease or condition during the Covid period relates to excess all-cause mortality, and does not preclude specific primary causes of death in individuals leading to main associated conditions at death other than respiratory infections or conditions. Such cases could produce significant mortality too small to be detected as a discernable contribution to all-cause mortality. An example might be heart failure due to COVID-19-vaccine-induced myocarditis, in which the primary cause is the vaccine. Another example could be induced immunodeficiency enabling cancer. In both examples, the increased associations at deaths could be confirmed by clinical observation or autopsy, while being too small to be recognized features in all-cause mortality data.</p><p>The proposal that respiratory infections or conditions are the dominant (or a dominant) association with (not primary cause of) excess all‑cause mortality during the Covid period is further supported by additional lines of evidence.</p><ul><li><p>(<em>Already outlined above:</em> Intricate weekly temporal matching of the reported COVID-19 mortality and excess all-cause mortality for up to 3 years during the Covid period in the USA data.)</p></li><li><p>Intricate weekly temporal matching of the reported COVID-19 mortality and excess all-cause mortality for the March-May 2020 peak (the said peak of Section 2) in Canada and Canadian provinces (Rancourt et al., in preparation).</p></li><li><p>Respiratory infections are a major recognized cause of death for all ages, both historically and presently, which is consistent with the intrinsic vulnerability of the lungs and the unavoidable rate of constant breathing (and aspiration, see Section 3.3.8).</p></li><li><p>The median ratio of excess all-cause mortality to reported COVID-19 mortality in the Covid period (2020-2022) for some 100 countries is 1.55 (Rancourt et al., 2024), which is not too different from 1.</p></li><li><p>Many deaths occurred from early aggressive hospital treatments for respiratory conditions, such as mechanical ventilators, toxic experimental doses of drugs, and lethal palliative drug cocktails (March-May 2020 said peak of Section 2) (e.g., Bailey and Köhnlein, 2020; Chaillot, 2024, their Chapter 6; Menage, 2021; Rancourt, 2020, 2023a; Richardson et al., 2020; Roedl et al., 2021; Torjesen, 2021; Watts et al., 2021).</p></li><li><p>The VAERS system of adverse effect reporting contains many post-vaccination nominally COVID-19 infections (e.g., Hickey and Rancourt, 2022, their Figures S3(a) and S4(a)).</p></li><li><p>Post-vaccination nominally COVID-19 infections are common, and are generally more frequent and more serious following multiple COVID-19 vaccine doses (1st dose, 2nd dose, booster) (Amer et al., 2024, their Table 6).</p></li></ul><p>Furthermore, from a mechanistic point of view, all forms of bacterial pneumonia have unreasonably been overlooked and left untreated during the Covid period (Rancourt et al., 2021a).</p><p>In particular, as one example, tuberculosis (TB) is a category of ancient bacterial pneumonias, which is highly prevalent and deadly, which is a leading proximal cause of death in the world, and which is clearly linked to social and economic factors, especially household or residential living conditions.</p><p>In their section 5.4, Rancourt et al. (2024) linked a mortality discontinuity between Eastern and Western European countries during the Covid period to the post-1990s pre-Covid-period prevalence of active TB, as an indicator of or proxy for large socio-economic differences.</p><p>Apparent transmission of TB, from infectious persons to household members, is well established (e.g., Chapman and Dyerly, 1964), such that transmission in hospital, care-home and prison settings is expected and high prevalence and incidence are demonstrated (Baussano et al., 2010; Joshi et al., 2006). Turner et al. (2017) provide a recent review of potential transmission mechanisms.</p><p>Airborne transmission of TB has been definitively shown, from infected humans to laboratory guinea pigs and mice in close indoor quarters designed to share the same air (Dharmadhikari et al., 2011; Plumlee et al., 2021; Riley et al., 1959). The animals were presumably biologically stressed by their laboratory conditions.</p><p>One-third of the world population is estimated to be infected with the TB pathogen, 9−14 million confirmed active cases occur every year, and there are approximately 1.2 million confirmed TB deaths per year in regular recent times (Bagcchi, 2023; Dattani et al., 2023; Dye et al., 1999; O’Garra et al., 2013).</p><p>It is estimated that there may be up to 10 times more active pathological TB cases than the above reviewed numbers, not confirmed by bacteriological tests (e.g., Houben et al., 2022), which would represent approximately 100 million active cases in any year.</p><p>Therefore, it appears that humanity’s evolutionary and pervasive coexistence with TB represents a large reservoir of potential respiratory ailments ready to enter the world stage whenever mass events suppress immunity (Sections 3.3 and 3.4), not counting the multitude of other prevalent bacterial, fungal and co-infection pneumonias (Dietert et al., 2017; Jacobs et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2023; Paquette et al., 2024; Torres et al., 2021).</p><p>In conclusion, it is plausible that virtually all or most excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period is associated with respiratory infections or conditions. This is likely to be the case in the USA, which is a large country with diverse populations of vulnerable individuals, living in diverse socio-economic, institutional, climatic and environmental conditions. It is also true for the March-May 2020 peak (said peak of Section 2) in Canada (Rancourt et al., in preparation). There is no counter evidence that this would not also be the case in other countries (Rancourt et al., 2024).</p><p>Therefore, primary causes of death in excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period (Section 3.3) should be consistent with this finding of respiratory condition prevalence, as a proximal or associated cause.</p><p>Regarding the particular microscopic pathogen to blame for the proximal respiratory conditions: You can only see what you look for (if the test is reliable), and you can’t see what you don’t look for. The medical hypotheses of the instant paper (Sections 3.3 and 3.4) provide more possible bacterial culprits than only those referred to above (in this Section 3.2).</p><p>A similar situation appears to apply to the 1918 pandemic, in which virtually all excess mortality was associated with respiratory conditions or infections (autopsy-confirmed as bacterial pneumonia: Chien et al., 2009; Morens et al., 2008; Sheng et al., 2011), whereas the primary cause of death in excess all-cause mortality would have been the conditions imposed by the First World War (Bailey et al., 2024), in the post-war socio-economic adjustment circumstances, with a strong association to poverty (Mamelund, 2006; Mamelund et al., 2021), in the context of a massive illicit drug trade in opium, morphine and heroin (literally tons of drugs) into the USA and European countries after the First World War, run by leading pharmaceutical companies such as Hoffman-La Roche at great profit (Braithwaite, 1984; Gøtzsche, 2013).</p><h2>3.3 Primary causes of death in excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period</h2><h3>3.3.1 Ruled out: SARS-CoV-2 as a primary cause of death</h3><p>The hypothesis of a specific spreading viral respiratory pathogen causing excess all-cause mortality during the Covid period (2020-2022) is contrary to and disproved by two main direct observations:</p><blockquote><p>i. It is incompatible with the large country-to-country heterogeneity of age and frailty adjusted (P-score) excess all-cause mortality rate (e.g., Rancourt et al., 2024, their sections 5.5 and 5.7; and see COVID-19 Forecasting Team, 2022, re heterogeneity of IFR).</p><p>ii. It is incompatible with the country-to-country spatiotemporal pattern of deaths, including the phenomenon of not crossing national borders. There is no evidence of spread, only local (by country) and time-specific assaults that do not geo-temporally evolve (e.g., Rancourt et al., 2024, their sections 4.11, 4.12 and 5.6).</p></blockquote><p>These basic incompatibilities have been previously reported (Rancourt, 2020, 2022; Rancourt et al., 2020, 2021a, 2021b, 2022a, 2022b, 2023a, 2023b, 2024). For example, in India there was no detectable excess all-cause mortality until the vaccine was first rolled out starting in March 2021 (Rancourt, 2022).</p><p>The said basic incompatibilities, while already proven, are corroborated in a high spatial resolution spatiotemporal hemispheric-scale study by Hickey et al. (in preparation), and for Canada (Rancourt et al., in preparation).</p><p>It is highly unlikely also that the frequently observed (in all countries, and repeatedly) peaks in excess all-cause mortality following the start or completion of COVID-19 vaccination rollouts, including boosters, occur from new variants of pandemic potency, for which no cross-immunity has been achieved (after more than one or two years of declared pandemic and typically more than one year of universal vaccination). For example, specific hypotheses of new variants of concern ― corresponding to extraordinary coincidences following rapid vaccine rollouts ― are argued to having been fabricated in the cases of India (Rancourt, 2022) and Australia (Rancourt et al., 2022a).</p><p>In addition to being strictly incompatible with definitive and repeated observations, the SARS‑CoV-2 hypothesis (or the hypothesis of any specific pandemic-causing respiratory virus) as a primary (Section 3.1) cause of death during the Covid period is not needed to explain any feature of the all-cause mortality in any of the countries studied.</p><p>The more immediate hypotheses of biological stress, medical interventions, and vaccination largely suffice:</p><p>· There was biological (including psychological) stress, induced by aggressive and life-changing mandates.</p><p>· There were deadly medical interventions (including denial of treatment) and overreaction directed by institutional messaging and propelled by managerial and professional self-interest.</p><p>· There was a coordinated international so-called response and global vaccination campaign with multiple rollouts, driven and protected by aggressive establishment and industry forces (Bergman, 2024; Homburg, 2024; Kennedy, 2021; Von, 2022).</p><p>· All-cause mortality is a record of the consequences.</p><h3>3.3.2 Hypothesis: Sudden and extraordinary stress from mandates and measures</h3><p>It would be difficult to overestimate the importance of biological stress (which includes psychological stress) in causing death, irrespective of the mechanism.</p><p>Selye (1956) defined biological stress and made an encyclopedic and systematic review of the many diverse stressors studied in the scientific literature up to 1976 (Selye, 1976a). Fatal physiological consequences of chronic biological stress have been known and extensively studied since their initial discovery (Selye, 1936, 1956, 1976a; Szabo et al., 2017).</p><p>While being foundational, the Selye line of research did not (Selye, 1976b) and has not generally (Szabo et al., 2017) included two paramount factors (see Rancourt, 2023b):</p><blockquote><p>i. The role of social dominance hierarchy, in both human and animal societies, as a structural and leading source of complex, situational and time-dependent stressors (dominance aggression) that primarily determine an individual’s (social-status-dependent) health and longevity.</p><p>ii. The dependence of biological adaptation to stress and failure (collapse) of biological adaption to stress on, not solely whether the biological stress is acute (episodic) or chronic (constant), and not solely on how the stress is experienced by the particular individual, but critically on the time sequence of the acting stressors of varying intensities; that is, on their time-type-intensity spectrum, which can have both regular and chaotic components.</p></blockquote><p>More generally, as is now known, the health and survival of individuals among social animals, and primates in particular, is predominantly determined by the individual’s position and role in the dominance hierarchy, in relation to the physiology and biochemistry of dominance aggression (Sapolsky, 2005), including via respiratory infections (Cohen et al<em>.</em>, 1997a). Irrationality or randomness of the acts of dominance aggression plays an important role, via stress response mechanisms, and amplifies the harm to subordinate individuals (Silk, 2002).</p><p>Together, these studies (e.g., Selye, Sapolsky, Cohen, Silk) show that socially and environmentally mediated biological stress is a major determinant of death and survival. This is easily admitted for non-human animals. However, the current medical scientific literature generally shies away from admitting the prevalence of this brutality in human societies, and instead tends to focus on sanitized questions of immunology and individual psychological stress.</p><p>From the perspective of the immune system, ordinary psychological stress alone significantly impacts immune response, and psychoneuroimmunology is a large field of research (Ader and Cohen, 1993; Dhabhar, 2009, 2014). Psychological stress alone probably causes many varied and common diseases (Cohen et al., 2007; Morey et al., 2015). Psychological stress and social isolation have strong associations with respiratory infections, including the common cold, acting to increase both frequency and severity of the infection (Cohen et al., 1991, 1997a, 1997b). Meanwhile, the impact of age increases vulnerability to stress (Morey et al., 2015; Prenderville et al., 2015). “Immunosuppressive activity increases with aging”, as the immune system is “remodeled” (Salminen, 2022). Early adversity, clinical diagnoses, and other factors also impact vulnerability to stress (Morey et al., 2015; Rancourt et al., 2024, their sections 5.4 and 5.10). Some aspects of psychological stress in the Covid period context have been reviewed by Peters et al. (2021).</p><p>Regarding stressors acting in the USA during the Covid period, and their social-status dependence, Rancourt et al. (2021a) summarized this way:</p><blockquote><p>“Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that the massive socio-economic disruptions of the COVID-era would have caused undue chronic psychological stress and amplified dominance-hierarchy stress predominantly against those who are already at the bottom of the societal dominance hierarchy, and have the least means to adjust to dramatically new circumstances. The new circumstances include: loss of sources of income, both legitimate and illegal, increased social isolation, increased hierarchical impositions, constant fear propaganda, severe mobility restrictions, closing of public and corporate-public spaces previously used, enforcement and intimidation against private or informal gatherings, mobbing against those who do not cheerfully accept the ‘new reality’, and increased aggressions from equally stressed individuals. The missing means to adjust would include: undisturbed salary and ability to work from home, means to stay connected by Zoom (by video conferencing applications), large comfortable air-conditioned homes, means to home-school children in an adapted environment, nearby facilities for outside exercise, private facilities for physical exercise, undisturbed shopping by home delivery, undisturbed self-medication, continued access to health care, and so on.”</p></blockquote><p>Finally, a recent study of young mice is strikingly apropos. Li et al. (2023) found that mice subjected to a single episode of restraint and immobilization stress (single 5–20 h stress sessions of confinement) experienced severe immunosuppression, more so and differently than with other common laboratory stressors (cold, biochemical). The behaviourally stressed mice could not efficiently defend against intravenous challenge with bacteria, and also showed significant spleen macrophage cell death, among several other corroborating biochemical observations.</p><p>This study in mice (Li et al., 2023) suggests, on a mechanistic basis, that confinement and isolation in humans may have a significant negative effect on susceptibility to infections, consistent with field observations of college students (Cohen et al., 1991, 1997b), and non-human primates (Cohen et al., 1997a).</p><p>For a human society under lockdown, universal enforced confinement to one’s home (or room in a care home), for example, will in-effect consist of very different confinement intensities depending on social class and financial means, for obvious reasons.</p><p>Regarding the deleterious health effects of immobility and confinement, it is not unrelated to point out that:</p><p>· Being connected to a mechanical ventilator or simply held at an ICU (intensive care unit) station are extreme immobilizations not unlike those imposed on the mice in the study of Li et al. (2023), but of longer duration on particularly fragile individuals.</p><p>· Contrary to caregiver expectations, medically ordered bedrest is virtually never beneficial to ill and recovering patients. In the words of Allen et al. (1999):</p><blockquote><p>“In 15 trials investigating bed rest as a primary treatment, no outcomes improved significantly and nine worsened significantly for some conditions (acute low back pain, labour, proteinuric hypertension during pregnancy, myocardial infarction, and acute infectious hepatitis).”</p></blockquote><p>· Likewise, imposed low mobility and medically recommended bedrest is always harmful to elderly patients. In the words of Brown et al. (2004):</p><blockquote><p>“Conclusion: Low mobility and bedrest are common in hospitalized older patients and are important predictors of adverse outcomes. This study demonstrated that the adverse outcomes associated with low mobility and bedrest may be viewed as iatrogenic events leading to complications, such as functional decline.”</p></blockquote><p>I (with Rancourt et al., 2024) conclude this sub-section with the hypothesis that the Covid-period mandates and measures were a primary cause (Section 3.1) of death significantly contributing to the measured excess all-cause mortality. See: (Rancourt et al., 2021a, 2021b) (Rancourt et al., 2022b, their boxed figure in their Conclusion).</p><h3>3.3.3 Hypothesis: Collectively amplified individual biological stress</h3><p>The above (Section 3.3.2) considerations of Covid-context causes of biological stress include solely the unidirectional influence “stressor(s) → individual stress”. However, in the circumstances of the Covid period, there must certainly also be a non-linear social transmission and amplification of biological stress (which includes psychological stress) and fear in the individual, presumably mediated (and mostly not attenuated) by mass media and government and health professional messaging.</p><p>I would argue that in the declared pandemic and massive pandemic so-called response context of the Covid period we must admit the likely importance of social transmission and social positive-feedback amplification of biological stress (which includes psychological stress) and fear. The known hormonal and brain circuitry responses to stress would mechanistically enable the said social transmission and social positive-feedback amplification (Rodrigues et al., 2009). The social transmission of physiologically detected stress in animal collectives is scientifically established (Brandl et al., 2022) and it is compatible with the hypothesis of social positive-feedback amplification of biological stress and fear.</p><p>When biological stress of the individual can result from or be increased by mass-communication-mediated non-linear social transmission and positive-feedback amplification, then epidemiological consequences including excess mortality can be sudden in any given population and synchronous over dispersed population centres.</p><h3>3.3.4 Hypothesis: Assaults from extraordinary medical interventions other than COVID‑19 vaccination</h3><p>There is much evidence that medical interventions (including denial of treatment) other than COVID-19 vaccination caused premature deaths during the Covid period, which would not have occurred otherwise until later (e.g., Rancourt, 2020, 2023a; Rancourt et al., 2021a, 2022b, 2023a, 2024, and references therein).</p><p>In this regard, we must have the evidence-based perspective that, even in ordinary times, medicine itself is a leading cause of harm and death (Gøtzsche, 2012, 2016; Makary and Daniel, 2016; Panagioti et al., 2019; and references therein).</p><p>The said medical treatments would include:</p><ul><li><p>coordinated denial of antibiotics or Ivermectin against bacterial pneumonia</p></li><li><p>systematic use of mechanical ventilators and their associated medications</p></li><li><p>experimental treatment protocols (large-dose hydroxychloroquine, HCQ)</p></li><li><p>new palliative and psychological medication protocols, overdoses (e.g., midazolam) (Marliot et al., 2020; Sy, 2024)</p></li><li><p>isolation of vulnerable individuals in medical or institutional facilities</p></li><li><p>denial of intensive care and disease management facilities</p></li><li><p>denial of home and community care medical services</p></li><li><p>aggressive-testing accidents</p></li><li><p>accidents and infections from reduced attending staff in care homes</p></li><li><p>encouraged voluntary or involuntary assisted dying (Marliot et al., 2020; Menage, 2021; Sy, 2024)</p></li><li><p>increased prevalence of medical errors due to declared-pandemic conditions</p></li></ul><p>The March-May 2020 peak often occurring in all-cause mortality (Section 2) (20-3 feature, section 4.2 in Rancourt et al., 2024), in particular, is difficult to explain absent medical interventions (Rancourt, 2020, 2023a). See also: Bailey and Köhnlein, 2020; Chaillot, 2024 (their Chapter 6); Richardson et al., 2020; Roedl et al., 2021; Torjesen, 2021; Watts et al., 2021.</p><p>I (with Rancourt et al.) conclude this sub-section (3.3.4) with the hypothesis that medical interventions (other than COVID-19 vaccination, including denial of treatment) were a primary (Section 3.1) cause of death significantly contributing to the measured excess all-cause mortality.</p><p>This medical intervention primary cause of death hypothesis is not invalidated by the background of biological stress that would have characterized the Covid period, since the relevant medical interventions accelerated the deaths that would not have otherwise occurred until later.</p><h3>3.3.5 Hypothesis: Assaults by COVID-19 vaccination</h3><p>Rancourt (2022) and Rancourt et al. (2022a, 2023a, 2023b, 2024) have shown many examples of strong temporal associations between rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and peaks in excess all-cause mortality, in more than 100 countries and states, including in age stratified data.</p><p>Worldwide evidence showing that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with increased excess all-cause mortality, rather than reduced mortality, is highlighted by Rancourt et al. (2024, their section 5.11).</p><p>In that study of 125 countries, Rancourt et al. (2024, their Appendix B) observed the following specific associations between COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and peaks or increases in excess all-cause mortality:</p><blockquote><p><em>i. 30% of countries (37 of 124) have no detected excess all-cause mortality in all of 2020, only later when vaccines are rolled out</em></p></blockquote><ul><li><p>124 countries had sufficient all-cause mortality data (the data for Cabo Verde was too noisy) to determine whether excess all-cause mortality started after the end of 2020, after the vaccines were introduced.</p></li><li><p>Of these 124 countries, 37 countries (30% of countries) had no detectable excess all-cause mortality in 2020. For at least the first nine months of the declared pandemic (declared on 11 March 2020) these 37 countries had virtually no measurable excess all-cause mortality: Antigua and Barbuda, Australia, Barbados, Bermuda, Brunei, Cuba, Faroe Islands, Finland, French Guiana, French Polynesia, Gibraltar, Greenland, Hong Kong, Iceland, Jamaica, Japan, Macao, Malaysia, Martinique, Mauritius, Monaco, Mongolia, Namibia, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Réunion, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Seychelles, Singapore, South Korea, Suriname, Taiwan, Thailand, and Uruguay.</p></li><li><p>To this list of 37 countries (Rancourt et al., 2024), we can add India (Rancourt, 2022).</p></li><li><p>All these 37 + 1 countries have first peaks or increases in excess all-cause mortality (if present) occurring only after vaccination is initiated, or later when the bulk of injections have been administered and additional (booster) doses are rolled out (Rancourt et al., 2024; Rancourt, 2022).</p></li></ul><blockquote><p><em>ii. 100% of countries (110 countries with sufficient vaccination data) show varied associations between vaccine rollouts and excess mortality</em></p></blockquote><ul><li><p>110 countries of the 125 countries in the Rancourt et al. (2024) study had sufficient data (both vaccination and mortality data, which is not too noisy) to allow determinations of temporal associations.</p></li><li><p>There were significant associations between COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and peaks or increases in excess all-cause mortality in all 110 of these countries (100% of countries) having sufficient data (Rancourt et al., 2024, their Appendix B): Albania, Argentina, Armenia, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Barbados, Belgium, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Bosnia, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, French Guiana, French Polynesia, Georgia, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Malta, Mauritius, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Namibia, Netherlands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, North Macedonia, Norway, Oman, Palestine, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Serbia, Seychelles, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, USA, Uruguay, and Uzbekistan.</p></li></ul><blockquote><p><em>iii. 97% of countries (113 of 116) show a late-2021 early-2022 peak in excess all-cause mortality temporally associated with booster rollouts</em></p></blockquote><ul><li><p>There were 116 of the 125 countries in the Rancourt et al. (2024) study that had sufficient and sufficient-quality data to ascertain the presence of the “22-0 feature”, a prominent or statistically evident excess mortality peak that occurs within one month or so of 1 January 2022 (their section 4.5). Of these 116 countries, 113 countries had the 22-0 feature in their excess all-cause mortality data (their section 4.5). The other 3 countries did not measurably exhibit the 22-0 feature (Italy, Macao, Taiwan).</p></li><li><p>Therefore, 113 of 116 countries (97% of countries) exhibit a peak in excess all-cause mortality within one month or so of 1 January 2022 (the 22-0 feature, Rancourt et al., 2024, their section 4.5) coincident with (immediately following) the time at which many booster doses were synchronously rolled out globally. The booster rollouts are recognized as peaks in overall (all doses) COVID-19 vaccine administration (e.g., Rancourt et al., 2023a).</p></li><li><p>The 113 countries having discernable 22-0 features in excess all-cause mortality were (Rancourt et al., 2024, their Appendix B): Albania, Andorra, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Barbados, Belgium, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Bosnia, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, French Guiana, French Polynesia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Maldives, Malta, Martinique, Mauritius, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Namibia, Netherlands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, North Macedonia, Norway, Oman, Palestine, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Réunion, Romania, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, San Marino, Serbia, Seychelles, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Transnistria, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, USA, and Uruguay.</p></li><li><p>Among these 113 countries having discernable 22-0 features in excess all-cause mortality, some of the most striking associations between a peak in vaccine rollout and the 20-2 feature occur for the 12 countries (Rancourt et al., 2024): Australia (and see: Rancourt et al., 2022a, 2023a, 2023b), Austria, Czechia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Slovakia, and Ukraine.</p></li></ul><blockquote><p><em>iv. 64% of countries (50 of 78) show a late-2022 early-2023 sharp peak in excess all-cause mortality temporally associated with booster rollouts</em></p></blockquote><ul><li><p>There were 78 of the 125 countries in the Rancourt et al. (2024) study that had sufficient and sufficient-quality data to ascertain the presence of the “23-0 feature”, a prominent or statistically evident excess mortality peak that occurs within one month or so of 1 January 2023, less than 5 months prior to the declaration of 5 May 2023 of the end of the declared pandemic (their section 4.4).</p></li><li><p>Of these 78 countries with sufficient data, 50 countries had the 23-0 feature (their section 4.4) in their excess all-cause mortality data. These 50 countries were (Rancourt et al., 2024, their Appendix B): Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, French Guiana, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macao, Moldova, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Paraguay, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Russia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, United Kingdom, and USA.</p></li><li><p>The other 28 of the 78 countries with sufficient data did not measurably exhibit the 23-0 feature (Rancourt et al., 2024, their section 4.4). These 28 countries were: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Colombia, Egypt, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Guadeloupe, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Martinique, Mayotte, Mexico, Mongolia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Oman, Philippines, Réunion, Serbia, Uruguay, Bulgaria, Mauritius, New Caledonia, and Romania.</p></li><li><p>Therefore, 50 of 78 countries (64% of countries) exhibited a peak in excess all-cause mortality within one month or so of 1 January 2023 (the 23-0 feature, Rancourt et al., 2024, their section 4.4) coincident with (immediately following) the time at which many booster doses were synchronously rolled out globally, in the last booster rollout prior to the declaration of the end of the declared pandemic. The booster rollouts are recognized as peaks in overall (all doses) COVID-19 vaccine administration (Rancourt et al., 2024; e.g., Rancourt et al., 2023a).</p></li><li><p>Although Bulgaria does not have the 23-0 feature (a distinct peak near 1 January 2023), it does have a broader and somewhat earlier peak structure in its excess all-cause mortality, which matches the vaccine rollout at that time (mid to end of 2022). Similar circumstances may be occurring in: Albania, Armenia, Colombia, Egypt, Georgia, Malaysia, North Macedonia, Philippines, Mauritius, and New Caledonia. (Rancourt et al., 2024, their Appendix B)</p></li></ul><blockquote><p><em>v. Particularly striking examples of vaccine-mortality associations in several specific countries</em></p></blockquote><ul><li><p>Several countries showed striking examples of vaccine-mortality associations in which the vaccine rollout is synchronous with the only exceptionally large excess all-cause mortality feature (Rancourt et al., 2024, their Appendix B): Bahamas, Cuba, French Polynesia, Gibraltar, Jamaica, Japan, Malaysia, New Caledonia, and Suriname. Here, note that Cuba developed its own vaccine.</p></li><li><p>Similarly striking examples include (Rancourt et al., 2024, their Appendix B): Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Maldives, Mauritius, Namibia, Philippines, Qatar, and Tunisia.</p></li></ul><p>Therefore, there are many temporal associations between COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and increases in excess all-cause mortality, in every country with sufficient data.</p><p>It is highly unlikely that these many vaccine-mortality temporal associations ― occurring at many different times for different vaccine rollouts during the two years of vaccinations and in every country having sufficient mortality and vaccination data in the Rancourt et al. (2024; and references therein) study ― are coincidental.</p><p>These vaccine-mortality correlations in time occur even with the limitation that the contributions to all-ages excess all-cause mortality by population are exponential with age (Rancourt et al., 2024, their section 5.10) whereas the vaccine administration shown (their Appendix B) is for all ages, and there are many more injections to non-elderly than to elderly, administered in different rollouts. Observed vaccine-mortality correlations in time are generally most distinct with age stratified data and can be masked in all-ages data (Rancourt et al., 2023a, 2023b).</p><p>Possible mechanisms whereby COVID-19 vaccination could be a primary (Section 3.1) cause of death include:</p><ol><li><p>The injection causes death by direct toxicity. Cationic lipids are candidates for toxic components.</p></li><li><p>The injection causes death by inducing an immune overreaction. The resulting immune assault, analogous to an allergic reaction, is enough to accelerate and cause the death.</p></li><li><p>The injection and repeated injections (2nd dose and boosters) cause immunosuppression making the patient generally more susceptible to infections and less able to defend against existing infections, including respiratory infections, in turn causing death. (See Section 3.2 regarding Amer et al., 2024, their Table 6.)</p></li><li><p>A frail patient is infected or additionally infected by a person who was made more infectious by injection-induced immunosuppression ― either another patient or a caregiver, for example. Their death is accelerated where it otherwise would not have been.</p></li><li><p>As an accident of the physical injection itself, the vaccine product can be introduced directly into a large blood vessel, rather than into the muscle tissue as intended. The resulting bolus then potentially leads to fatal consequences by high-concentration rapid mass bulk delivery to sensitive organs, systems or tissues (Girardot, 2024).</p></li></ol><p>Regarding point-c, for example, following Selye (1956), if subjected to widespread (even booster-repeated) presence of antigens in the blood, the body could respond by suppressing its non-specific inflammation response, including in the respiratory tract, thus making the individual more susceptible to varied and deeper respiratory infections (and skin infections: Martora et al., 2023). Also, theoretical mechanisms specifically for COVID‑19 vaccine-induced immunosuppression have been suggested (Palmer et al., 2023, their sections 3.3 to 3.5; Seneff et al., 2022).</p><p>These possible mechanisms (point-a through point-e) are consistent with the observations based on age-stratified data that the effective “vaccine dose fatality rate (vDFR)” (per injection basis) increases exponentially with age and increases with the dose number (Rancourt et al., 2023a, 2023b).</p><p>The COVID-19 vaccine injection primary (Section 3.1) cause of death hypothesis is not invalidated by the background of biological stress that would have characterized the Covid period, or by the assaults from other medical interventions, since the injections are taken to have accelerated the deaths that would not have otherwise occurred until later.</p><p>In conclusion of this sub-section (3.3.5), the many directly observed strong temporal associations between vaccine rollouts and sudden increases in excess all-cause mortality, for all ages combined or by age group, in virtually every country with sufficient data (Rancourt et al., 2024; and references therein), would compel one to include the hypothesis that COVID-19 vaccination was a primary (Section 3.1) cause of death significantly contributing to the measured excess all-cause mortality. In addition, there is ample and conclusive evidence, from the clinical and adverse-effects perspectives, that the COVID-19 vaccine injections can cause death in individuals (e.g., as reviewed by Rancourt et al., 2023a, in their section 6.1).</p><p>Nonetheless, it is possible, despite the above-described remarkable and pervasive correlations in time between vaccine rollouts and increases in excess all-cause mortality, that the COVID-19 vaccine injections themselves are not a primary (Section 3.1) cause of death sufficient in strength to be the actual primary cause of the associated increases in excess all-cause mortality. This possibility is discussed in the next Section 3.3.6.</p><h3>3.3.6 Hypothesis: Assaults from campaigns and measures associated in time and place with COVID-19 vaccine rollouts</h3><p>As mentioned above in Section 3.3.5, it is possible that the expected deaths caused by the COVID-19 vaccine do not produce large excess all-cause mortality, despite the vaccine rollouts being known to be strongly temporally associated with observed surges in excess all-cause mortality.</p><p>Here, I discuss possible significant primary causes of death other than COVID-19 vaccines, which are associated in time and place with COVID-19 vaccine rollouts.</p><p>This possibility was noted by Rancourt et al. (2024, their section 5.1), as:</p><blockquote><p>“…it is possible that the observed strong correlations occur due to one or several hidden factors, rather than from a direct causal relationship due to challenge via toxicity of the injected substance.</p><p>For example, we might postulate that the teams of attendants who walk into the various institutions housing frail people to administer the latest booster during the period of a rapid rollout, are accompanied by or serve the dual function of a team of attendants who test for positive cases of presumed COVID-19. Each positive test or diagnostic determination, in turn, whether real or false, could have significant negative health consequences for the individual, such as isolation, removal to a different location, confinement, and aggressive chemical and mechanical medical treatment.”</p></blockquote><p>In other words, the impugned COVID-19 vaccine rollouts may be synchronously accompanied by concomitant aggressive medical and/or health interventions, and the latter interventions would be the relevant primary cause(s) of death.</p><p>Examples of such accompanying interventions might include:</p><p>· the use of incorrectly stored or handled COVID-19 vaccination products</p><p>· incorrect combinations of COVID-19 vaccination products from different manufacturers</p><p>· incorrect physical administrations of the COVID-19 vaccine, using rushed or ill-trained staff</p><p>· testing for COVID-19, and the associated consequences of positive test results</p><p>· more aggressive or extreme immobilisation and isolation enforcement during the vaccine rollout</p><p>· the psychological stress of being coerced into re-vaccination, in the institutional environment</p><p>· administration of influenza or other vaccinations</p><p>· administration of medications intended to facilitate acceptance or to alleviate side effects of the injections</p><p>· disrupted patient care schedule, including regular medication, meals and hydration</p><p>· transmitted stress of the attendants, or infections from the attendants</p><p>· and so on</p><p>The thus associated or accompanying assaults can be different in their array and different in magnitude from one country to another, from one institution to another, and from one COVID-19 vaccine rollout to another (with multiple doses, such as boosters). For example, Rancourt (2022) discusses the case of India, compared to the consequences of so-called vaccine-equity campaigns in the USA.</p><p>For these rollout-associated concomitant aggressive medical and/or health interventions (the above bulleted list), each can be a relevant primary cause of death if it would have caused the deaths which otherwise would not have occurred (for example, in the relevant short time interval of the sharp mortality peak that follows the vaccine rollout).</p><h3>3.3.7 Discerning the COVID-19 vaccination and rollout-associated assault primary causes</h3><p>In this sub-section, I examine the problem of discerning the COVID-19 vaccination (Section 3.3.5) and rollout-associated assaults (Section 3.3.6) as primary causes.</p><p>Again, as pointed out by Rancourt et al. (2024, their section 5.1):</p><blockquote><p>“… To constrain whether or not vaccine toxicity directly causes measurable mortality, versus (for example) the fatal impact of other and concomitant large-scale public health interventions, … the researcher should have access to vaccine-status-discriminated all-cause mortality data. Such data will constrain more definitively whether the COVID-19 vaccination rollouts have life-saving benefits, or cause additional mortality, and the degree of these relations. This data is needed for the same countries in which strong temporal associations are present between rapid vaccine rollouts and sharp peaks in excess all-cause mortality.”</p></blockquote><p>This is true. Tracy Beth Hoeg vehemently made this and other criticisms of Rancourt et al. (2023a). See Hoeg’s criticisms and my response to them: Rancourt (2024, and references therein).</p><p>Recently, Rancourt et al. (in preparation) analysed national mortality data in one country in which COVID-19 vaccination status was known at death, including the history of COVID-19 vaccinations, in a case in which the country exhibited rapid vaccine rollouts strongly temporally associated with observed surges in excess all-cause mortality. They found that relevant peaks in excess all-cause mortality associated with booster rollouts could not preferentially be assigned to booster-vaccinated individuals (and also that the vaccine had no detectable survival benefit).</p><p>This means that the COVID-19 vaccination primary cause described in Section 3.3.5 did not produce a measurable increase in excess all-cause mortality in this country, which in turn means that sharp peaks in excess all-cause mortality which are temporally associated with rapid vaccine rollouts need not imply that COVID-19 vaccination is a primary cause of death. Rather, it seems that (as pervasive as they are) such temporal associations between mortality peaks and rapid vaccine rollouts are due to the primary cause described in Section 3.3.6 of campaigns and measures associated in time and place with COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. Although non-conclusive in general, this is consistent with the fact that the vaccine toxicity causing death inferred from population-wide adverse-effect monitoring is usually too small to be detected directly in population-wide (e.g., national) cause-independent all-cause mortality, as per analyses of USA VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System) data (Hickey and Rancourt, 2022).</p><p>This would mean that the lethality of medical measures imposed during the Covid period and during vaccine rollouts is much greater than generally acknowledged, and much greater than the known (VAERS, autopsies, etc.) vaccine toxicity itself.</p><h3>3.3.8 Hypothesis: Increased stressors cause surges in spontaneous microbial respiratory self-infection (aspiration pneumonia)</h3><p>In this sub-section, I propose a mechanism whereby sudden impositions of extraordinary biological stress (from Covid-period mandates and measures, as per Sections 3.3.2 and 3.3.3) and/or sudden impositions of extraordinary medical assaults during the Covid period (as per Sections 3.3.4, 3.3.5 and 3.3.6) quickly lead to rapid surges in respiratory deaths, detected as peaks and increases in excess all-cause mortality, without any person-to-person transmission of a respiratory pathogen being required.</p><p>The proposed said mechanism in part involves spontaneous development of aggressive bacterial pneumonia in fragile individuals, known as aspiration pneumonia.</p><p>“Aspiration is defined as the inhalation of oropharyngeal or gastric contents into the larynx and lower respiratory tract.” (Marik, 2001). Aspiration pneumonia is bacterial pneumonia caused by aspiration, including both overt aspiration and silent micro-aspiration during sedation or sleep (Teramoto, 2022). Aspiration pneumonia has a higher mortality rate than non-aspiration pneumonia (Gupte et al., 2022). It is self-generated within the susceptible individual and does not depend on person-to-person transmission of a pathogen.</p><p>Aspiration pneumonia itself is a known and increasingly studied phenomenon (Asai and Isono, 2014; Ebihara and Ebihara, 2011; Gupte et al., 2022; Koivula et al., 1994; Mandell and Niederman, 2019; Marik, 2001; Marik and Kaplan, 2003; Prass et al., 2006; Teramoto, 2022; Zuercher et al., 2019).</p><p>The study of aspiration pneumonia has provided an entirely new view of pneumonia, as an infection that can be self-generated rather than necessarily transmitted from another person. It has also provided a new view of the lungs themselves. In the words of Mandell and Niederman (2019):</p><blockquote><p>“Studies of the lung microbiome have challenged our assumptions of lung sterility and of bacterial access to the lungs through aspiration (microaspiration or macroaspiration) and inhalation. Specifically, genomic methods have defined a complex taxonomic landscape of bacteria in the lung and revealed the presence of diverse communities of microbiota.</p><p>… The complex adaptive system model suggests that acute bacterial pneumonia results from enhancement of a growth-promoting signal by a positive feedback loop. This may result in a rapid shift from a diverse microbial mixture to dominance by a single species (e.g., <em>Streptococcus pneumoniae</em> or <em>Pseudomonas aeruginosa</em>).12</p><p>One hypothesis linking the airway microbiome with aspiration pneumonia is that illness may result in a change in the lung microbiota (dysbiosis), which may, in turn, interfere with or impair pulmonary defenses. A macroaspiration event, particularly in a patient with risk factors for impaired bacterial elimination, such as reduced consciousness or an impaired cough reflex, could then overwhelm the elimination side of the immigration–elimination balance, further disrupting bacterial homeostasis and triggering an increase in a positive feedback loop leading to acute infection.”</p></blockquote><p>This means, among other things, that pneumonia does not require person-to-person transmission. Aspiration pneumonia, in particular, is a phenomenon that does not require or involve person-to-person transmission, as it is presently described in the medical literature.</p><p>Aspiration pneumonia is a dominant cause of death in old people in ordinary (non-pandemic-response) circumstances, especially in care facilities and hospitals. It is the leading cause of death among residents of nursing homes (Gupte et al., 2022; Marik and Kaplan, 2003; Teramoto, 2022). The recognized treatment protocol involves correct diagnosis, preventative and treatment measures against dysphagia (difficulty swallowing, see Zuercher et al., 2019), and the administration of antibiotics (Mandell and Niederman, 2019).</p><p>My hypothesis is that the pandemic-response circumstances of the Covid period (the mandates, measures and medical assaults, Sections 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, 3.3.5 and 3.3.6) induced a significantly amplified occurrence and virulence of aspiration pneumonia in elderly and frail populations. This is supported by several known characteristics of aspiration pneumonia, as follows.</p><blockquote><p>i. A dominant risk factor for aspiration pneumonia is immunosuppression, whereas:</p><p>a. biological and psychological stress suppress immune response (Section 3.3.2)</p><p>b. including immobilization and isolation (Section 3.3.2)</p><p>ii. Dominant known risk factors for aspiration pneumonia include several iatrogenic causes, which increased significantly with pandemic so-called response, including:</p><p>a. diagnostic bias and general denial of antibiotic treatments (Mandell and Niederman, 2019; Rancourt et al., 2021a, their section 5)</p><p>b. mechanical ventilation (Pneumatikos et al., 2009)</p><p>c. sedatives, hypnotics, muscle relaxants, sleeping pills, psycho psychotics (Gupte et al., 2022; Teramoto, 2022; their Table 1)</p><p>d. drugs that cause dry mouth (e.g., anticholinergic drugs, tricyclic antidepressants) (Teramoto, 2022; their Table 1)</p><p>e. tube feeding (placing of the nasogastric tube itself disturbs swallowing function) (Teramoto, 2022; their Table 1)</p><p>f. polypharmacy (unexpected side effects of agents) (Teramoto, 2022; their Table 1)</p><p>g. endotracheal intubation tube, tracheotomy tubing (Teramoto, 2022; their Table 1)</p><p>h. depressed consciousness, use of opioids, anesthesia (Asai and Isono, 2014)</p><p>i. depressive disorder (Gupte et al., 2022)</p><p>j. suicide attempt (Teramoto, 2022; their Table 1)</p><p>k. medications for the treatment of gastroesophageal reflux (Gupte et al., 2022)</p><p>iii. A dominant risk factor for aspiration pneumonia is suppression of the defenses against aspiration, whereas</p><p>a. sedation significantly increases aspiration (Gupte et al., 2022)</p><p>b. immobilization and being bedridden significantly increases aspiration (Prass et al., 2006)</p><p>c. any obstruction to breathing (which presumably would include face mask wearing) significantly increases aspiration (“impair[ed] pulmonary clearance”, Gupte et al., 2022)</p><p>d. medical or other suppression of coughing significantly increases aspiration and aspiration pneumonia (Ebihara and Ebihara, 2011)</p><p>iv. Comorbid conditions associated with death from aspiration pneumonia include alcoholism and opioid related disorders (Gupte et al., 2022). The use of alcohol and opioids may have increased in the elderly during the Covid period.</p></blockquote><p>I would add that one should expect pandemic-response-induced increased fear and psychological stress to increase aspiration disorders and the frequency of silent micro-aspirations during sleep, which are dominant causes of aspiration pneumonia in old people.</p><p>I would also add that (Covid period) biological and psychological stress and medical assaults can significantly perturb the gut or digestive-tract microbiome, and that this perturbed gastrointestinal microbiome may in turn increase the likelihood and severity of aspiration pneumonia.</p><p>The general and systemic denial of antibiotics would have been devastating (Rancourt et al., 2021a, their section 5), given the above-described importance of aspiration pneumonia (Gupte et al., 2022; Mandell and Miederman, 2019; Teramoto, 2022) and its necessary treatment (Mandell and Niederman, 2019), irrespective of any considerations of “spread” and “contagion”.</p><p>Likewise, the novel and widespread hospital use of mechanical ventilation during the Covid period is difficult to understand given the knowledge that existed in 2020 about ventilator-associated pneumonia and ventilation-induced aspiration pneumonia. Ventilation was a sure way to induce aggressive pneumonias, irrespective of anything else.</p><h3>3.3.9 Hypothesis: Spontaneous microbial respiratory self-infection (spontaneous pneumonia) without aspiration</h3><p>Given the above discussion (3.3.8), it is immediate to advance the hypothesis that transmissionless spontaneous pneumonia induced by the mandates, measures, so-called responses and medical assaults (3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, 3.3.5, and 3.3.6) need not be aspiration pneumonia (need not require aspiration), but rather can be self-infection pneumonia developed without aspiration, including TB (Section 3.2), that relies on respiratory tract microbiome diversity, instability and intrinsic susceptibility to runaway imbalance (see the above quoted paragraphs from Mandell and Niederman, 2019).</p><h2>3.4 Is a pandemic of transmissionless bacterial pneumonia possible?</h2><p>In view of the above discussion (Section 3.3), it would seem that the answer to the question in this section’s title is “yes”, absolutely.</p><p>One need only satisfy at least one of the following conditions:</p><blockquote><p>i. A sudden assault on many countries using measures that increase the likelihood and/or lethality of aspiration pneumonia (3.3.8) or spontaneous pneumonia (3.3.9) among elderly and frail groups, and/or</p><p>ii. A sudden socio-economic collapse affecting many countries, of a type that increases the likelihood and/or lethality of aspiration pneumonia (3.3.8) or spontaneous pneumonia (3.3.9) among elderly and frail groups, and/or</p><p>iii. A sudden man-made or natural environmental change affecting many countries, of a type that increases the likelihood and/or lethality of aspiration pneumonia (3.3.8) or spontaneous pneumonia (3.3.9) among elderly and frail groups</p></blockquote><p>In hindsight, this appears to already occur every winter, giving rise to the seasonal cycles of respiratory deaths in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The winter peaks in all-cause mortality are synchronous across all mid-latitude regions for a given hemisphere and show no detectable shifts that would imply contagious spread. In this case, the yearly environmental change is winter atmospheric conditions (Kuzmenko, 2019):</p><p>a. lower temperatures, known to cause significant biological stress (Section 3.3.2), with cold homes known to be associated with respiratory emergencies in winter (Rudge and Gilchrist, 2005)</p><p>b. lower atmospheric humidity, known to cause dry mouth, in turn known to increase aspiration, also expected to affect respiratory tract tissues and the associated microbiome, known to increase aerosol load and residency time</p><p>c. larger atmospheric pressure, and larger atmospheric pressure variability, expected to affect circulation, known to affect severity of pneumonia (during airplane flights)</p><p>d. larger partial pressure of oxygen, unknown effect on pneumonia incidence, large potential to affect respiratory tract microbiome and immune response (Park et al., 1992)</p><p>e. decreased daylight hours, unknown effect on pneumonia incidence, presumed connection to vitamin D (Chatfield et al., 2007)</p><p>f. decreased geomagnetic activity, unknown effect on pneumonia incidence</p><p>See the comments about seasonal mortality by Rancourt (2023b), and see published examples of seasonal patterns in many countries (Rancourt, 2020, 2022; Rancourt et al., 2020, 2021a, 2021b, 2022a, 2022b, 2022c, 2023a, 2023b, 2024; and references therein).</p><p>Historic pandemics may also be explained by large sudden natural environmental changes, such as large explosive volcanic eruptions. Stothers (1999) found that climatic and epidemiological (pandemic) consequences of the seven largest dry-fog-producing volcanic explosions of the past 21 centuries were closely associated in time, to a degree that was “very unlikely coincidence”. Stothers emphasized volcanic cooling and cold proximal winters, but it is also possible that dispersed toxic volcanic emissions played a role.</p><p>On the other hand, a competing or complimentary thesis is that the great plagues of the Middle Ages (including the Black Death) were induced by socio-economic collapse, in great waves that repeat the sequence:</p><p>growing class exploitation →</p><p>money shortage →</p><p>rising prices of living commodities →</p><p>widespread extreme poverty →</p><p>deleterious developmental and health consequences →</p><p>plague (concomitant revolution and/or monetary reset)</p><p>This thesis is developed in the landmark work of Fischer (1996) entitled “The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History”. Fischer’s observations are consistent with the work of DeWitte and Wood (2008) who showed by forensic analysis of skeletons that those who died in the Black Death were developmentally malnourished and in poor prior health.</p><p>Pneumonia epidemics in nursing or care homes may also be transmissionless events. Residents of nursing homes already systemically suffer from malnutrition and dehydration (Kayser-Jones et al., 1999; Volkert et al., 2019). Many care-home residents already suffer from dysphagia, the dominant risk factor for aspiration pneumonia. Therefore any sufficiently impactful sudden change of the conditions in a care home can induce a spontaneous epidemic of aspiration pneumonia (3.3.8) or spontaneous pneumonia (3.3.9) in the said care home, irrespective of any person-to-person (resident-resident or resident-staff/visitor) transmission of a respiratory pathogen. Examples of sufficiently impactful sudden changes might be as follows, which may occur in combination:</p><p>· loss or change of care staff (including increased negligence)</p><p>· change in staff management (including loss of oversight)</p><p>· change in diet or its administration (including fluids)</p><p>· change in public-health safety protocols and conditions (including isolation)</p><p>· loss of access to facilities or services (including washrooms or attendants)</p><p>· change in administered medications</p><p>· increased immobilization (in-bed or in-room) for any reason</p><p>· change in environmental conditions (e.g., temporary loss of indoor heat)</p><p>· transferred or transmitted fear or stress from staff</p><p>· increased frequent physical displacements (e.g., for treatment or testing)</p><p>Similarly, I would expect that gastrointestinal epidemics of diarrhea (for example) could be spontaneously induced by such changes, without necessarily involving person-to-person transmitted pathogens.</p><p>I end this section by suggesting that transmissionless mechanisms for pandemics and epidemics have incorrectly been overlooked and underappreciated. Basically, a person’s own microbiome is enough to cause virtually anything, under changing conditions. The bias towards pathogen-transmission mechanisms exhibited by clinicians, epidemiologists and public-health managers, as the dominant or driving mechanism of pandemics and epidemics, has evolved historically (Martin and Martin-Granel, 2006), and in my opinion is not justified. In fact, it is disproved by epidemiological all-cause mortality studies (Section 3.3.1). The said bias, including the associated and widespread diagnostic bias, relies disproportionately on molecular tests of bodily fluids and blood, which are not as specific as claimed, and are not sufficiently and rigorously validated, despite their comprehensive promotion by the industry.</p><h2>3.5 Has a pandemic-causing viral respiratory pathogen ever existed?</h2><p>At this point, it is not unreasonable to ask whether the viral spread theory of respiratory epidemics and pandemics has any relevance whatsoever to the observed phenomena.</p><p>The said viral spread theory as a cause of the declared Covid pandemic is disproved by a large amount of empirical mortality data (Section 3.3.1), and its supporting evidence is tenuous, appearing largely to rely on a persistent narrative and technological optimism, while being motivated by large industrial and institutional interests.</p><p>Is humanity really at risk of catastrophic near-extinction events from mutations (accidental or designed molecular sequences) in relatively small genetic macromolecules that spontaneously enter and mega-replicate in living cells in our healthy bodies? I cannot find the receipts.</p><p>What is the relevance of a spreading specific respiratory pathogen if every epidemic and pandemic requires:</p><p>· virtually synchronous deaths over large areas, from institutional to global</p><p>· large pools of malnourished and unhealthy individuals</p><p>· spectra of comorbidities</p><p>· immunity from death of the wealthy or well-resourced</p><p>· large episodes of socio-economic upheaval</p><p>· contexts of aggression and societal conflict (war, class predation, international impositions…)</p><p>· large environmental events (toxic substances, volcanos, floods, lengthy droughts…)</p><p>· co-infection by more virulent (bacterial) pathogens</p><p>· propagandistic feedback and social transmission of fear?</p><p>Regarding this question, I have difficulty understanding those scientists who admit the fact of no detectable excess all-cause mortality attributable to a spreading virus during the Covid period yet insist that there are “novel viruses and variants” out there and among us, as though their proposition, true or false, was relevant to public health. They often fall back on “novel symptoms” such as loss of smell. Long-term and temporary loss of smell and taste are commonly associated with seasonal colds and other ailments (de Haro-Licer et al., 2013; Pellegrino et al., 2016). I would additionally make the point that any condition or disease brought on or exacerbated by exceptional biological stress or exceptional medical assaults will have “novel symptoms”. In addition, symptoms are always a function of the individual’s environmental and societal field, convoluted with the individual’s particular health status and biology. Symptoms are rarely proof of a specific cause, and all the symptoms in the present context are non-specific.</p><p>In contrast, the critics of pandemic-causing viral spread theory bring many significant points that the theory is not actually supported (Bailey, 2022). Their points should be rigorously addressed rather than summarily discounted.</p><p>Many well-researched books delve into this matter and cannot easily be disregarded, such as:</p><p>Ø <em>"The Final Pandemic: An Antidote To Medical Tyranny"</em> ---- by Mark Bailey and Samantha Bailey (2024)</p><p>Ø <em>"Can you catch a COLD?"</em> ---- by Daniel Roytas (2024)</p><p>Ø <em>"Turtles All The Way Down: Vaccine Science and Myth"</em> ---- by Anonymous (2022) ---- Mary Holland J.D. (Foreword, Editor), Zoey O'Toole (Editor)</p><p>Ø <em>"Virus Mania: Corona/COVID-19, Measles, Swine Flu, Cervical Cancer, Avian Flu, SARS, BSE, Hepatitis C, AIDS, Polio, Spanish Flu. How the Medical Industry Continually Invents Epidemics, Making Billion-Dollar Profits At Our Expense"</em> ---- by Torsten Engelbrecht and Claus Köhnlein and Samantha Bailey (2020) (2021)</p><p>Ø <em>"The Moth in the Iron Lung: A Biography of Polio"</em> ---- by Forrest Maready (2018)</p><p>Ø <em>"Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and the Forgotten History"</em> ---- by Suzanne Humphries and Roman Bystrianyk (2013) (2015)</p><p>Ø <em>"Anatomy of an Epidemic: Magic Bullets, Psychiatric Drugs, and the Astonishing Rise of Mental Illness in America"</em> ---- by Robert Whitaker (2010) (2015)</p><p>Ø <em>"Fear of the Invisible: How scared should we be of Viruses and vaccines, HIV and AIDS?"</em> ---- by Janine Roberts (2008)</p><p>Ø <em>"AIDS Inc.: Scandal of the Century"</em> ---- by Jon Rappopport (2004)</p><p>Ø <em>"Inventing the AIDS Virus"</em> ---- by Peter Duesberg (1996)</p><p>Ø <em>"The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS"</em> ---- by Michael Fumento (1993)</p><p>In view of all of the above (all sections), it is possible that all recorded pandemics in history have occurred from biological-stress-induced (including environmental exposure and extreme malnutrition) transmissionless spontaneous self-infections. The said self-infections could arise from within the respiratory tract and digestive tract microbiomes (and parasites) of individuals, in the living conditions at the time and place. The said biological-stress-induced transmissionless spontaneous self-infections could also be spontaneous infections of the skin and its injuries, from the skin microbiome (Byrd et al., 2018), skin parasites (Norgan and Pritt, 2018), and environmental toxins.</p><p>The same would be true of the synchronous seasonal patterns of large winter mortality, quantitatively and universally observed (except at equatorial latitudes) for more than a century.</p><h1>4 Conclusion</h1><p>Within the present state of knowledge, it is possible that the declared Covid pandemic (2020-2023) was entirely caused by the coordinated and largescale mandates, measures, so-called responses, and medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and vaccination.</p><p>In other words, it is possible that the declared Covid pandemic was a pandemic of mistreatment- and biological-stress-induced transmissionless spontaneous bacterial pneumonia (such as aspiration pneumonia).</p><p>It appears the impact of biological stress (which includes psychological stress) on individual health vulnerability and mortality is vastly underestimated and largely disregarded by the medical establishment (3.3.2).</p><p>The viral spread theory of respiratory pandemics as a cause of the declared Covid pandemic is disproved by a large amount of spatiotemporal excess all-cause mortality data worldwide (3.3.1), irrespective of whether the presumed virus is postulated to be natural or engineered. In contrast, all the epidemiological data is consistent with my hypothesis.</p><p>As a corollary, this would mean that the testing that was implemented is essentially meaningless (e.g., Rancourt, 2021, 2022; Rancourt et al., 2023a, their section 6.6), and that if a pandemic had not been declared and acted upon, then nothing unusual would have occurred in population health.</p><p>Furthermore, it is possible that all recorded pandemics in history have occurred in this way, from biological-stress-induced (including environmental exposure and extreme malnutrition) transmissionless spontaneous self-infections. The said self-infections could arise from within the respiratory tract and digestive tract microbiomes (and parasites) of individuals, in the living conditions at the time and place. The said biological-stress-induced transmissionless spontaneous self-infections could also be spontaneous infections of the skin and its injuries, from the skin microbiome and from skin parasites.</p><p>Additionally, the synchronous seasonal patterns of large winter mortality, quantitatively observed for more than a century, are likewise explained.</p><p>This would mean that the spreading virus hypothesis is unnecessary, and that we always carry on and within our own bodies everything needed to get sick and die when our physical and human environments violently assault us beyond our ability to recover.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h1>Acknowledgements</h1><p>I would like to thank my past co-authors and collaborators since 2020 for many and continued discussions and challenges, and all the individuals who support our research.</p><h1>References</h1><p>Ader and Cohen (1993): Ader R, Cohen N. Psychoneuroimmunology: conditioning and stress. Annu Rev Psychol. 1993;44:53-85. doi: 10.1146/annurev.ps.44.020193.000413. PMID: 8434895. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ps.44.020193.000413">https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ps.44.020193.000413</a></p><p>Allen et al. (1999): Chris Allen, Paul Glasziou, Chris Del Mar /// Bed rest: a potentially harmful treatment needing more careful evaluation /// <em>The Lancet</em>, Volume 354, Issue 9186, 1999, Pages 1229-1233, ISSN 0140-6736, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(98)10063-6">https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(98)10063-6</a></p><p>Amer et al. (2024): Amer, S.A., Al-Zahrani, A., Imam, E.A. et al. /// Exploring the reported adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines among vaccinated Arab populations: a multi-national survey study /// <em>Sci Rep</em> 14, 4785 (2024). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-54886-0">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-54886-0</a></p><p>Asai and Isono (2014): Takashi Asai, Shiroh Isono /// Residual Neuromuscular Blockade after Anesthesia: A Possible Cause of Postoperative Aspiration-induced Pneumonia. /// <em>Anesthesiology</em> 2014; 120:260–262 doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/ALN.0000000000000042">https://doi.org/10.1097/ALN.0000000000000042</a></p><p>Bagcchi (2023): Sanjeet Bagcchi /// WHO's Global Tuberculosis Report 2022 /// www.thelancet.com/microbe Vol 4 January 2023, p. e20 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-5247(22)00359-7">https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-5247(22)00359-7</a></p><p>Bailey (2022): Mark Bailey /// A Farewell To Virology (Expert Edition) /// (15 September 2022) <a href="https://drsambailey.com/a-farewell-to-virology-expert-edition/">https://drsambailey.com/a-farewell-to-virology-expert-edition/</a> /// archived: <a href="https://archive.org/details/a-farewell-to-virology-expert-edition/">https://archive.org/details/a-farewell-to-virology-expert-edition/</a></p><p>Bailey and Köhnlein (2020): Sam Bailey, Claus Köhnlein /// PCR Pandemic: Interview with Dr Claus Köhnlein /// </p><p>https://drsambailey.com/</p><p> (video interview, 35m45s duration), 27 October 2020 /// <a href="https://drsambailey.com/resources/videos/interviews/pcr-pandemic-interview-with-dr-claus-kohnlein/">https://drsambailey.com/resources/videos/interviews/pcr-pandemic-interview-with-dr-claus-kohnlein/</a></p><p>Bailey et al. (2024): Sam Bailey et al. (HFDF Team) /// Exploding the Spanish Flu Myth /// HFDF Team internet resource, 20 June 2024 /// <a href="https://healthfreedomdefense.org/exploding-the-spanish-flu-myth/">https://healthfreedomdefense.org/exploding-the-spanish-flu-myth/</a> (accessed 13 July 2024) /// Archived: <a href="https://archive.ph/qPB6L">https://archive.ph/qPB6L</a> /// As a video, with show notes: <a href="https://drsambailey.com/resources/videos/viruses-unplugged/exploding-the-spanish-flu-myth/">https://drsambailey.com/resources/videos/viruses-unplugged/exploding-the-spanish-flu-myth/</a></p><p>Baussano et al. (2010): Baussano I, Williams BG, Nunn P, Beggiato M, Fedeli U, et al. /// Tuberculosis Incidence in Prisons: A Systematic Review. /// <em>PLoS Med</em>, 2010, 7(12): e1000381.</p><p>doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000381 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000381">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000381</a></p><p>Bergman (2024): Frank Bergman /// Dutch Government Official Admits Covid Pandemic Was ‘Military Operation’: ‘Ministry of Health Obeys NATO’ /// <em>Slay News</em>, 9 November 2024 /// <a href="https://slaynews.com/news/dutch-government-official-admits-covid-pandemic-military-operation-ministry-health-obeys-nato/">https://slaynews.com/news/dutch-government-official-admits-covid-pandemic-military-operation-ministry-health-obeys-nato/</a> /// archived: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240000000000*/https:/slaynews.com/news/dutch-government-official-admits-covid-pandemic-military-operation-ministry-health-obeys-nato/">https://web.archive.org/web/20240000000000*/https://slaynews.com/news/dutch-government-official-admits-covid-pandemic-military-operation-ministry-health-obeys-nato/</a> /// archived: <a href="https://archive.ph/agFFj">https://archive.ph/agFFj</a> /// accessed 18 November 2024</p><p>Borger et al. (2021): Pieter Borger, Bobby Rajesh Malhotra, Michael Yeadon, Clare Craig, Kevin McKernan, Klaus Steger, Paul McSheehy, Lidiya Angelova, Fabio Franchino, Thomas Binder, Henrik Ullrich, Makoto Ohashi, Stefano Scoglio, Marjolein Doesburg-van Kleffens, Dorothea Gilbert, Rainer J. Klement, Ruth Schruefer, Berber W. Pieksma, Jan Bonte, Bruno H. Dalle Carbonare, Klaus Steger, and Ulrike Kämmerer /// Addendum to the Corman-Drosten Review Report. /// <em>OSF Preprints</em>. 12 January 2021. doi:10.31219/osf.io/9mjy7. <a href="https://osf.io/9mjy7/">https://osf.io/9mjy7/</a></p><p>Braithwaite (1984): John Braithwaite /// Chapter 6: “The corporation as pusher” <strong>in:</strong> <em>CORPORATE CRIME in the pharmaceutical industry</em> /// Routledge &amp; Kegan Paul (London), 1984, 440 pages, ISBN 0-7102-0049-8 /// <a href="https://johnbraithwaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Corporate-Crime-in-the-Pharmac.pdf">https://johnbraithwaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Corporate-Crime-in-the-Pharmac.pdf</a></p><p>Brandl et al. (2022): Hanja B. Brandl, Jens C. Pruessner, Damien R. Farine /// The social transmission of stress in animal collectives /// <em>Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</em>, 2022, 289: 20212158 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.2158">https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.2158</a></p><p>Brown et al. (2004): Brown, C.J., Friedkin, R.J. and Inouye, S.K. /// Prevalence and Outcomes of Low Mobility in Hospitalized Older Patients /// <em>Journal of the American Geriatrics Society</em>, 2004, 52: 1263-1270. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52354.x">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52354.x</a> /// <a href="https://agsjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52354.x">https://agsjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52354.x</a></p><p>Byrd et al. (2018): Byrd, A., Belkaid, Y. &amp; Segre, J. /// The human skin microbiome. /// <em>Nat Rev Microbiol</em> 16, 143-155 (2018). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.157">https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.157</a></p><p>CDC (2023): CDC /// COVID-19 Mortality Overview &gt; Deaths by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics /// <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm</a> (archived by CDC on 27 September 2023, accessed 19 June 2024) /// Also archived at: <a href="https://archive.ph/https:/www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm">https://archive.ph/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm</a></p><p>Chaillot (2024): Pierre Chaillot /// Covid 19: Decoding Official Data: Mortality, tests, vaccines, hospitals. The truth emerges /// Publisher: L'Artilleur (May 27 2024), Paperback: 422 pages /// ISBN-10: ‎ 2810012393, ISBN-13: ‎ 978-2810012398.</p><p>Chapman and Dyerly (1964): John S. Chapman and Margaret D. Dyerly, and Don R. Powell (statistical assistance) /// Social and Other Factors in Intrafamilial Transmission of Tuberculosis /// <em>American Review of Respiratory Disease</em>, 1964, 90(1), pp. 48–60. /// <a href="https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1164/arrd.1964.90.1.48">https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1164/arrd.1964.90.1.48</a></p><p>Chatfield et al. (2007): Chatfield, S.M., Brand, C., Ebeling, P.R. and Russell, D.M. /// Vitamin D deficiency in general medical inpatients in summer and winter. /// <em>Internal Medicine Journal</em>, 2007, 37: 377-382. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1445-5994.2007.01339.x">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1445-5994.2007.01339.x</a></p><p>Chien et al. (2009): Yu-Wen Chien, Keith P. Klugman, David M. Morens /// Bacterial pathogens and death during the 1918 influenza pandemic. /// <em>N Engl J Med.</em> 2009 Dec 24;361(26):2582-3. doi: 10.1056/NEJMc0908216. PMID: 20032332. /// <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc0908216">https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc0908216</a></p><p>Cohen et al. (1991): Cohen S, Tyrrell DA, Smith AP /// Psychological Stress and Susceptibility to the Common Cold /// <em>New England Journal of Medicine</em>. Massachusetts Medical Society, 325(9), pp. 606–612. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199108293250903. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1713648/">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1713648/</a></p><p>Cohen et al. (1997a): Cohen, Sheldon; Line, Scott; Manuck, Stephen B.; Rabin, Bruce S.; Heise, Eugene R.; Kaplan, Jay R. /// Chronic Social Stress, Social Status, and Susceptibility to Upper Respiratory Infections in Nonhuman Primates /// <em>Psychosomatic Medicine</em>, May/June 1997 - Volume 59 - Issue 3 - p 213-221. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/00006842-199705000-00001">https://doi.org/10.1097/00006842-199705000-00001</a> /// <a href="https://kilthub.cmu.edu/articles/journal_contribution/Chronic_Social_Stress_Social_Status_and_Susceptibility_to_Upper_Respiratory_Infections_in_Nonhuman_Primates/6613937/files/12106595.pdf">https://kilthub.cmu.edu/articles/journal_contribution/Chronic_Social_Stress_Social_Status_and_Susceptibility_to_Upper_Respiratory_Infections_in_Nonhuman_Primates/6613937/files/12106595.pdf</a></p><p>Cohen et al. (1997b): Cohen S, Doyle WJ, Skoner DP, Rabin BS, Gwaltney JM Jr. /// Social Ties and Susceptibility to the Common Cold /// <em>JAMA</em>, 277(24), pp. 1940–1944. doi: 10.1001/jama.1997.03540480040036. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9200634/">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9200634/</a></p><p>Cohen et al. (2007): Sheldon Cohen, Denise Janicki-Deverts, Gregory E Miller /// Psychological Stress and Disease /// <em>JAMA</em>, 298(14), pp. 1685–1687. doi: 10.1001/jama.298.14.1685. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17925521/">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17925521/</a></p><p>COVID-19 Forecasting Team (2022): Variation in the COVID-19 infection-fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis. /// <em>Lancet</em>. 2022 Apr 16;399(10334):1469-1488. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02867-1. Epub 2022 Feb 24. Erratum in: <em>Lancet</em>. 2022 Apr 16;399(10334):1468. PMID: 35219376; PMCID: PMC8871594. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)02867-1">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)02867-1</a></p><p>Dattani et al. (2023): Saloni Dattani, Fiona Spooner, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2023) /// Tuberculosis /// Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/tuberculosis">https://ourworldindata.org/tuberculosis</a> [Online Resource] on 15 July 2024.</p><p>de Haro-Licer et al. (2013): de Haro-Licer J, Roura-Moreno J, Vizitiu A, González-Fernández A, González-Ares JA. /// Long term serious olfactory loss in colds and/or flu. /// <em>Acta Otorrinolaringol Esp.</em> 2013 Sep-Oct;64(5):331-8. English, Spanish. doi: 10.1016/j.otorri.2013.04.003. Epub 2013 Aug 12. PMID: 23948436. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.otoeng.2013.10.004">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.otoeng.2013.10.004</a></p><p>DeWitte and Wood (2008): DeWitte SN, Wood JW /// Selectivity of black death mortality with respect to preexisting health /// <em>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</em>. 2008 Feb 5;105(5):1436-41. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0705460105. Epub 2008 Jan 28. PMID: 18227518; PMCID: PMC2234162. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705460105">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705460105</a></p><p>Dhabhar (2009): Firdaus S. Dhabhar /// Enhancing versus Suppressive Effects of Stress on Immune Function: Implications for Immunoprotection and Immunopathology /// <em>Neuroimmunomodulation</em> 1 June 2009; 16 (5): 300–317. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1159/000216188">https://doi.org/10.1159/000216188</a></p><p>Dhabhar (2014): FS Dhabhar /// Effects of stress on immune function: the good, the bad, and the beautiful /// <em>Immunologic Research</em>. 2014 May; 58(2-3): 193-210. doi: 10.1007/s12026-014-8517-0. PMID: 24798553. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12026-014-8517-0">https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12026-014-8517-0</a></p><p>Dharmadhikari et al. (2011): Ashwin S. Dharmadhikari, Randall J. Basaraba, Martie L. Van Der Walt, Karin Weyer, Matsie Mphahlele, Kobus Venter, Paul A. Jensen, Melvin W. First, Sydney Parsons, David N. McMurray, Ian M. Orme, Edward A. Nardell /// Natural infection of guinea pigs exposed to patients with highly drug-resistant tuberculosis /// <em>Tuberculosis</em>, Volume 91, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 329-338, ISSN 1472-9792 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tube.2011.03.002">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tube.2011.03.002</a></p><p>Dietert et al. (2017): Dietert, Kristina et al. /// Spectrum of pathogen- and model-specific histopathologies in mouse models of acute pneumonia. /// <em>PloS one</em> vol. 12,11 e0188251. 20 Nov. 2017, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0188251 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0188251">https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0188251</a></p><p>Dye et al. (1999): Dye C, Scheele S, &gt;Dolin P, Pathania V, Raviglione MC, for the WHO Global Surveillance and Monitoring Project. /// Global Burden of Tuberculosis: Estimated Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality by Country. /// <em>JAMA</em>. 1999;282(7):677–686. doi:10.1001/jama.282.7.677 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.282.7.677">https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.282.7.677</a></p><p>Ebihara and Ebihara (2011): Satoru Ebihara, Takae Ebihara /// Cough in the elderly: A novel strategy for preventing aspiration pneumonia /// <em>Pulmonary Pharmacology &amp; Therapeutics</em>, Volume 24, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 318-323, ISSN 1094-5539, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pupt.2010.10.003">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pupt.2010.10.003</a></p><p>Fischer (1996): David Hackett Fischer /// <em>The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History</em> /// Oxford University Press, 1996, 536 pages, ISBN-13 978-0-19-512121-6 (Pbk.), ISBN 0-19-512121-X (Pbk.)</p><p>Ginsburg and Klugman (2020): Ginsburg AS, Klugman KP. /// COVID-19 pneumonia and the appropriate use of antibiotics. /// <em>Lancet Glob Health.</em> 2020 Dec;8(12):e1453-e1454. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30444-7. Epub 2020 Nov 11. PMID: 33188730; PMCID: PMC7833845. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30444-7">https://doi.org/10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30444-7</a></p><p>Girardot (2024): Marc Girardot /// <em>The Needle’s Secret: Unraveling the mystery of vaccine harm, and the bolus theory revolution</em> /// (Independently published, 22 March 2024) /// paperback, 276 pages, ISBN-13: 979-8884699793</p><p>Gøtzsche (2013): Peter Gøtzsche /// <em>Deadly Medicines and Organised Crime</em> /// CRC Press: Taylor &amp; Francis Group, 2013, 310 pages, ISBN-13: 978-1-84619-884-7 (pbk).</p><p>Gøtzsche (2012): Peter Gøtzsche /// <em>Mammography Screening: Truth, Lies and Controversy</em> /// London: Radcliffe Publishing, 2012. /// CRC Press; 1st edition (Jan. 21 2012), Paperback: ‎400 pages, ISBN-10: 1846195853. ISBN-13: 978-1846195853. /// Review response: Mammography screening: truth, lies, and controversy, Gøtzsche, Peter C, <em>The Lancet</em>, Volume 380, Issue 9838, 218, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61216-1/fulltext">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61216-1/fulltext</a></p><p>Gøtzsche (2016): Peter C Gøtzsche /// Peter C Gøtzsche: Prescription drugs are the third leading cause of death /// <em>thebmjopinion</em>, 16 June 2016 /// <a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2016/06/16/peter-c-gotzsche-prescription-drugs-are-the-third-leading-cause-of-death/">https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2016/06/16/peter-c-gotzsche-prescription-drugs-are-the-third-leading-cause-of-death/</a></p><p>Gupte et al. (2022): Gupte, T., Knack, A. &amp; Cramer, J.D. /// Mortality from Aspiration Pneumonia: Incidence, Trends, and Risk Factors. /// <em>Dysphagia</em> 37, 1493–1500 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00455-022-10412-w">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00455-022-10412-w</a></p><p>Hickey and Rancourt (2022): Hickey J, Rancourt DG /// “Nature of the toxicity of the COVID-19 vaccines in the USA”. ResearchGate [Preprint] (9 February 2022). Available at: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14217.93289">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14217.93289</a> | Correlation Republication, <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/VAERS-toxicity-of-COVID19-vaccines/">https://correlation-canada.org/VAERS-toxicity-of-COVID19-vaccines/</a></p><p>Hickey et al. (in preparation): Early publication will be provided at <em>Correlation</em>:</p><p><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">https://correlation-canada.org/research/</a></p><p>Homburg (2024): Stefan Homburg /// Whistleblow Uncovers Covid Scam /// video, YouTube Stefan Homburg channel, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@StHomburg">https://www.youtube.com/@StHomburg</a>, 5 November 2024, Berlin /// </p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"-j7qjedth3A","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2--j7qjedth3A" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-j7qjedth3A?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div><p> /// <em>Description:</em> A whistleblower obtained 10GB from Robert-Koch-Institute, the German CDC. This so-called RKI-Leak reveals that Covid was a scam from start to finish. The presentation took place in the second largest room of the German Bundestag, which is actually intended for committees of inquiry. Recorded 2 November 2024 in Berlin, English subtitles provided by the speaker. Internet sources: The RKI-Leak - The Federal Ministry of Health has confirmed the authenticity of the leak. Download : </p><p>https://rki-transparenzbericht.de/</p><p> Search tool: </p><p>https://www.rkileak.com/</p><p> /// accessed on 16 November 2024 (51,702 views).</p><p>Houben et al. (2022): Houben RMGJ, Esmail H, Cobelens F, Williams CML, Coussens AK. /// Tuberculosis prevalence: beyond the tip of the iceberg. /// <em>Lancet Respir Med.</em> 2022 Jun;10(6):537-539. doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(22)00184-9. PMID: 35659006. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-2600(22)00184-9">https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-2600(22)00184-9</a></p><p>Jacobs et al. (2015): Enno Jacobs, Ingrid Ehrhardt, Roger Dumke. /// New insights in the outbreak pattern of Mycoplasma pneumoniae. /// <em>International Journal of Medical Microbiology</em>, Volume 305, Issue 7, 2015, Pages 705-708, ISSN 1438-4221. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmm.2015.08.021">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmm.2015.08.021</a></p><p>Johnson and Rancourt (2022): Johnson, J.A. and Rancourt, D.G. /// Evaluating the Effect of Lockdowns On All-Cause Mortality During the COVID Era: Lockdowns Did Not Save Lives /// <em>ResearchGate</em> [preprint] (9 July 2022) (16 pages), <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34191.46242">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34191.46242</a> | And published by Brownstone Institute (6 September 2022): <a href="https://brownstone.org/articles/lockdowns-did-not-save-lives/">https://brownstone.org/articles/lockdowns-did-not-save-lives/</a></p><p>Joshi et al. (2006): Joshi R, Reingold AL, Menzies D, Pai M /// Tuberculosis among health-care workers in low and middle-income countries: A systematic review. /// <em>PLoS Med</em> 2006, 3(12):e494. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030494 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030494">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030494</a></p><p>Kayser-Jones et al. (1999): Kayser-Jones, J., Schell, E.S., Porter, C., Barbaccia, J.C. and Shaw, H. /// Factors Contributing to Dehydration in Nursing Homes: Inadequate Staffing and Lack of Professional Supervision. /// <em>Journal of the American Geriatrics Society</em>, 1999, 47: 1187-1194. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1999.tb05198.x">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1999.tb05198.x</a></p><p>Kennedy (2021): Robert F. Kennedy Jr. /// Chapter 12 (Germ Games): War Games: Genesis of the Biosecurity State /// pages 378-445 (incl. 297 endnotes) <strong>in:</strong> <em>The Real Anthony Fauci - Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health</em> (RF Kennedy Jr., 2021, Skyhorse Publishing, Children’s Health Defence, ISBN: 978-1-5107-6680-8, pp. 449)</p><p>Koivula et al. (1994): Koivula I, Sten M, Mäkelä PH. /// Risk factors for pneumonia in the elderly. /// <em>Am J Med.</em> 1994 Apr;96(4):313-20. doi: 10.1016/0002-9343(94)90060-4. PMID: 8166149. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-9343(94)90060-4">https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-9343(94)90060-4</a></p><p>Kuzmenko (2019): Kuzmenko, N.V. /// Seasonal Variations in Atmospheric Pressure, Partial Oxygen Density, and Geomagnetic Activity as Additional Synchronizers of Circannual Rhythms. /// <em>BIOPHYSICS</em> 64, 599–609 (2019). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1134/S0006350919040080">https://doi.org/10.1134/S0006350919040080</a></p><p>Lewin (1951): Lewin, K. /// <em>Field theory in social science: selected theoretical papers</em> /// Edited by Dorwin Cartwright, Harpers (New York), 1951, 346 pages /// <a href="https://archive.org/details/dli.ernet.503983/">https://archive.org/details/dli.ernet.503983/</a></p><p>Li et al. (2023): Li, C.-C.; Munalisa, R.; Lee, H.-Y.; Lien, T.-S.; Chan, H.; Hung, S.-C.; Sun, D.-S.; Cheng, C.-F.; Chang, H.-H. /// Restraint Stress-Induced Immunosuppression Is Associated with Concurrent Macrophage Pyroptosis Cell Death in Mice /// <em>Int. J. Mol. Sci.</em> 2023, 24, 12877. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms241612877">https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms241612877</a></p><p>Link and Phelan (1995): Link, Bruce G., and Jo Phelan. /// Social Conditions As Fundamental Causes of Disease. /// <em>Journal of Health and Social Behavior</em>, 1995, 80–94. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2626958">https://doi.org/10.2307/2626958</a> /// <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2626958">https://www.jstor.org/stable/2626958</a></p><p>Liu et al. (2023): Liu YN, Zhang YF, Xu Q, Qiu Y, Lu QB, Wang T, Zhang XA, Lin SH, Lv CL, Jiang BG, Li H, Li ZJ, Gao GF, Yang WZ, Hay SI, Wang LP, Fang LQ, Liu W; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Etiology Surveillance Study Team of Acute Respiratory Infections. /// Infection and co-infection patterns of community-acquired pneumonia in patients of different ages in China from 2009 to 2020: a national surveillance study. /// <em>Lancet Microbe</em>. 2023 May;4(5):e330-e339. doi: 10.1016/S2666-5247(23)00031-9. Epub 2023 Mar 28. PMID: 37001538. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s2666-5247(23)00031-9">https://doi.org/10.1016/s2666-5247(23)00031-9</a></p><p>Makary and Daniel (2016): Makary M A, Daniel M. /// Medical error—the third leading cause of death in the US /// <em>BMJ</em> 2016; 353 :i2139 doi:10.1136/bmj.i2139. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i2139">https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i2139</a></p><p>Mamelund (2006): Mamelund SE /// A socially neutral disease? Individual social class, household wealth and mortality from Spanish influenza in two socially contrasting parishes in Kristiania 1918-19 /// <em>Soc Sci Med</em>. 2006 Feb;62(4):923-40. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2005.06.051. Epub 2005 Aug 8. PMID: 16084634. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2005.06.051">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2005.06.051</a></p><p>Mamelund et al. (2021): Mamelund S-E, Shelley-Egan C, Rogeberg O /// The association between socioeconomic status and pandemic influenza: Systematic review and meta-analysis /// <em>PLoS ONE</em> 16(9): e0244346. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244346">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244346</a></p><p>Mandell and Niederman (2019): Mandell LA, Niederman MS. /// Aspiration Pneumonia. (Review) /// <em>N Engl J Med.</em> 2019 Feb 14;380(7):651-663. doi: 10.1056/NEJMra1714562. PMID: 30763196. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmra1714562">https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmra1714562</a></p><p>Marik (2001): Marik PE. /// Aspiration pneumonitis and aspiration pneumonia. (Review) /// <em>N Engl J Med.</em> 2001 Mar 1;344(9):665-71. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200103013440908. PMID: 11228282. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm200103013440908">https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm200103013440908</a></p><p>Marik and Kaplan (2003): Marik PE, Kaplan D. /// Aspiration pneumonia and dysphagia in the elderly. /// <em>Chest</em>. 2003 Jul;124(1):328-36. doi: 10.1378/chest.124.1.328. PMID: 12853541. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.124.1.328">https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.124.1.328</a></p><p>Marliot et al. (2020): Marliot G, Penel N, Gamblin V. /// Switch in use of midazolam for cancer patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. /// <em>J Oncol Pharm Pract.</em> 2020 Oct;26(7):1817-1818. doi: 10.1177/1078155220948929. Epub 2020 Aug 14. PMID: 32791947. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1078155220948929">https://doi.org/10.1177/1078155220948929</a></p><p>Martin and Martin-Granel (2006): Martin PM, Martin-Granel E. /// 2,500-year evolution of the term epidemic. /// <em>Emerg Infect Dis.</em> 2006 Jun;12(6):976-80. doi: 10.3201/eid1206.051263. PMID: 16707055; PMCID: PMC3373038. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1206.051263">https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1206.051263</a></p><p>Martora et al. (2023): Martora F, Battista T, Ruggiero A, Scalvenzi M, Villani A, Megna M, Potestio L. /// The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on Inflammatory Skin Disorders and Other Cutaneous Diseases: A Review of the Published Literature. /// <em>Viruses</em>. 2023 Jun 23; 15(7): 1423. doi: 10.3390/v15071423. PMID: 37515110; PMCID: PMC10384785. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fv15071423">https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fv15071423</a></p><p>Menage (2021): Janet Menage /// Rapid Response: Assisted dying is open to Abuse /// <em>BMJ Response</em>, 14 September 2021 /// <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2128/rr-11">https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2128/rr-11</a> /// All Rapid Responses to the same article are here: <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2128/rapid-responses">https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2128/rapid-responses</a></p><p>Morey et al. (2015): Morey JN, Boggero IA, Scott AB, Segerstrom SC /// Current Directions in Stress and Human Immune Function /// <em>Curr Opin Psychol.</em> 2015 Oct 1;5:13-17. doi: 10.1016/j.copsyc.2015.03.007. PMID: 26086030; PMCID: PMC4465119. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2015.03.007">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2015.03.007</a></p><p>Morens et al. (2008): Morens DM, Taubenberger JK, Fauci AS. /// Predominant role of bacterial pneumonia as a cause of death in pandemic influenza: implications for pandemic influenza preparedness. /// <em>The Journal of infectious diseases</em>, vol. 198,7 (2008): 962-70. doi:10.1086/591708. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/591708">https://doi.org/10.1086/591708</a></p><p>Norgan and Pritt (2018): Norgan AP, Pritt BS. /// Parasitic Infections of the Skin and Subcutaneous Tissues. /// <em>Adv Anat Pathol</em>. 2018 Mar;25(2):106-123. doi: 10.1097/PAP.0000000000000183. PMID: 29351090. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/pap.0000000000000183">https://doi.org/10.1097/pap.0000000000000183</a></p><p>O’Garra et al. (2013): O'Garra A, Redford PS, McNab FW, Bloom CI, Wilkinson RJ, Berry MP. /// The immune response in tuberculosis. /// <em>Annu Rev Immunol.</em> 2013;31:475-527. doi: 10.1146/annurev-immunol-032712-095939. PMID: 23516984. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-immunol-032712-095939">https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-immunol-032712-095939</a></p><p>Palmer et al. (2023): Palmer et al. / Doctors for COVID Ethics /// mRNA Vaccine Toxicity /// D4CE.org, version 2.1 (October 27, 2023) (235 pages). <a href="https://d4ce.org/mRNA-vaccine-toxicity/">https://d4ce.org/mRNA-vaccine-toxicity/</a></p><p>Panagioti et al. (2019): Panagioti M, Khan K, Keers R N, Abuzour A, Phipps D, Kontopantelis E et al. /// Prevalence, severity, and nature of preventable patient harm across medical care settings: systematic review and meta-analysis /// <em>BMJ</em> 2019; 366 :l4185 doi:10.1136/bmj.l4185. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l4185">https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l4185</a></p><p>Paquette et al. (2024): Maude Paquette, Matthew Magyar, Christian Renaud. /// Mycoplasma pneumoniae /// <em>CMAJ</em> 2024 October 1; 196:E1120. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.240085. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.240085">https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.240085</a></p><p>Park et al. (1992): Matthew K. Park, Roy A. M. Myers, Louis Marzella /// Oxygen Tensions and Infections: Modulation of Microbial Growth, Activity of Antimicrobial Agents, and Immunologic Responses /// <em>Clinical Infectious Diseases</em>, Volume 14, Issue 3, March 1992, Pages 720–740, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/clinids/14.3.720">https://doi.org/10.1093/clinids/14.3.720</a></p><p>Pellegrino et al. (2016): Pellegrino R, Walliczek-Dworschak U, Winter G, Hull D, Hummel T. /// Investigation of chemosensitivity during and after an acute cold. /// <em>Int Forum Allergy Rhinol.</em> 2017; 7: 185–191. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/alr.21869">https://doi.org/10.1002/alr.21869</a></p><p>Peters et al. (2021): Eva M.J. Peters, Manfred Schedlowski, Carsten Watzl, Ulrike Gimsa /// To stress or not to stress: Brain-behavior-immune interaction may weaken or promote the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 /// <em>Neurobiology of Stress</em>, Volume 14, 100296. ISSN 2352-2895. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ynstr.2021.100296">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ynstr.2021.100296</a></p><p>Plumlee et al. (2021): /// Courtney R. Plumlee, Fergal J. Duffy, Benjamin H. Gern, Jared L. Delahaye, Sara B. Cohen, Caleb R. Stoltzfus, Tige R. Rustad, Scott G. Hansen, Michael K. Axthelm, Louis J. Picker, John D. Aitchison, David R. Sherman, Vitaly V. Ganusov, Michael Y. Gerner, Daniel E. Zak, Kevin B. Urdahl /// Ultra-low Dose Aerosol Infection of Mice with Mycobacterium tuberculosis More Closely Models Human Tuberculosis /// <em>Cell Host &amp; Microbe</em>, Volume 29, Issue 1, 68 - 82.e5 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2020.10.003">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2020.10.003</a></p><p>Pneumatikos et al. (2009): Ioannis A. Pneumatikos, Christos K. Dragoumanis, Demosthenes E. Bouros, David S. Warner, Mark A. Warner /// Ventilator-associated Pneumonia or Endotracheal Tube-associated Pneumonia?: An Approach to the Pathogenesis and Preventive Strategies Emphasizing the Importance of Endotracheal Tube. /// <em>Anesthesiology</em> 2009; 110:673–680 doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/ALN.0b013e31819868e0">https://doi.org/10.1097/ALN.0b013e31819868e0</a></p><p>Prass et al. (2006): Prass K, Braun JS, Dirnagl U, Meisel C, Meisel A. /// Stroke propagates bacterial aspiration to pneumonia in a model of cerebral ischemia. /// <em>Stroke</em>. 2006 Oct;37(10):2607-12. doi: 10.1161/01.STR.0000240409.68739.2b. Epub 2006 Aug 31. PMID: 16946159. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1161/01.str.0000240409.68739.2b">https://doi.org/10.1161/01.str.0000240409.68739.2b</a></p><p>Prenderville et al. (2015): /// Adding fuel to the fire: the impact of stress on the ageing brain /// <em>Trends in Neurosciences</em>, 38(1), pp. 13–25. doi: 10.1016/j.tins.2014.11.001. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25705750/">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25705750/</a></p><p>Rancourt (2020): Rancourt, D.G. /// All-cause mortality during COVID-19 — No plague and a likely signature of mass homicide by government response /// <em>ResearchGate</em>, 2 June 2020. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.24350.77125">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.24350.77125</a> | Available at: <a href="https://archive.org/details/boe-expert-witness-denis-rancourt-nci-ce-nc">https://archive.org/details/boe-expert-witness-denis-rancourt-nci-ce-nc</a> - pp. 774-799.</p><p>Rancourt (2021): Rancourt, DG /// Do Face Masks Reduce COVID-19 Spread in Bangladesh? Are the Abaluck et al. Results Reliable? /// <em>denisrancourt.ca</em> (20 September 2021) /// <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=106">https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=106</a> - archived: <a href="https://archive.ph/yHbWO">https://archive.ph/yHbWO</a> - republished: <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/do-face-masks-reduce-covid-19-spread-bangladesh-abaluck-et-al-results-reliable/5756323?pdf=5756323">https://www.globalresearch.ca/do-face-masks-reduce-covid-19-spread-bangladesh-abaluck-et-al-results-reliable/5756323?pdf=5756323</a></p><p>Rancourt (2022): Rancourt, DG /// Probable causal association between India’s extraordinary April-July 2021 excess-mortality event and the vaccine rollout /// <em>Correlation Research in the Public Interest</em>, 5 December 2022 /// <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-probable-causal-association-between-indias-extraordinary-april-july-2021-excess-mortality-event-and-the-vaccine-rollout/">https://correlation-canada.org/report-probable-causal-association-between-indias-extraordinary-april-july-2021-excess-mortality-event-and-the-vaccine-rollout/</a></p><p>Rancourt (2023a): Rancourt, Denis /// Dr. Denis Rancourt Unveiling All-Cause Mortality: A Critical Analysis of the Pandemic Declaration and Vaccination Rollout ― Testimony of Denis Rancourt to the National Citizens Inquiry (Canada), Ottawa, 17 May 2023, <a href="https://rumble.com/v2ohtte-physicist-dr-denis-rancourt-presents-his-findings-on-all-cause-mortality-ot.html%20/">https://rumble.com/v2ohtte-physicist-dr-denis-rancourt-presents-his-findings-on-all-cause-mortality-ot.html ///</a> Denis Rancourt Virtual Testimony follow up to the National Citizens Inquiry (Canada), 28 June 2023, <a href="https://rumble.com/v2wpyqu-national-citizens-inquiry-denis-rancourt-virtual-testimony.html%20/">https://rumble.com/v2wpyqu-national-citizens-inquiry-denis-rancourt-virtual-testimony.html ///</a> NCI website: </p><p>https://nationalcitizensinquiry.ca/</p><p>Rancourt (2023b): Rancourt DG. /// Realities of Health (Fundamental nature of health) /// Invited special session talk at: International Crisis Summit IV (ICS4), 17 November 2023 (18 minutes), Bucharest, Romania. /// <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/videos.php?id=111">https://denisrancourt.ca/videos.php?id=111</a> /// <a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/fundamental-nature-of-health">https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/fundamental-nature-of-health</a> /// <a href="https://rumble.com/v3x6q0o-denis-rancourt-realities-of-health-very-interesting.html">https://rumble.com/v3x6q0o-denis-rancourt-realities-of-health-very-interesting.html</a></p><p>Rancourt (2024): Rancourt, DG /// My response to Tracy Beth Hoeg’s criticisms of our</p><p>“17M vaccine deaths” calculation /// <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=136">https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=136</a> (24 January 2024) /// <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240126173523/https:/denisrancourt.ca/uploads_entries/1706187792521_Reply%20to%20Fact%20Checker%20Hoeg%20on%2017M%20paper----5.pdf">https://web.archive.org/web/20240126173523/https://denisrancourt.ca/uploads_entries/1706187792521_Reply%20to%20Fact%20Checker%20Hoeg%20on%2017M%20paper----5.pdf</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2020): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M. and Mercier, J. (2020) /// Evaluation of the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 in France, from all-cause mortality 1946-2020 /// <em>ResearchGate</em>, 20 August 2020 [Preprint]. Available at: <a href="https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.16836.65920/1">https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.16836.65920/1</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2021a): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M. and Mercier, J. /// Nature of the COVID-era public health disaster in the USA, from all-cause mortality and socio-geo-economic and climatic data. /// <em>Research Gate</em> (25 Ocbtober 2021) /// <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11570.32962">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11570.32962</a> /// <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/Mortality-public-health-disaster-USA/">https://correlation-canada.org/Mortality-public-health-disaster-USA/</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2021b): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M. and Mercier, J. /// Analysis of all-cause mortality by week in Canada 2010-2021, by province, age and sex: There was no COVID-19 pandemic, and there is strong evidence of response-caused deaths in the most elderly and in young males. /// <em>Research Gate</em> (6 August 2021) /// <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14929.45921">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14929.45921</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2022a): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M. and Mercier, J. /// Probable causal association between Australia’s new regime of high all-cause mortality and its COVID-19 vaccine rollout. /// <em>Correlation Research in the Public Interest</em>, 20 December 2022 /// <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-probable-causal-association-between-australias-new-regime-of-high-all-cause-mortality-and-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout/">https://correlation-canada.org/report-probable-causal-association-between-australias-new-regime-of-high-all-cause-mortality-and-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout/</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2022b): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M. and Mercier, J. /// COVID-Period Mass Vaccination Campaign and Public Health Disaster in the USA: From age/state-resolved all-cause mortality by time, age-resolved vaccine delivery by time, and socio-geo-economic data /// <em>Research Gate</em> (2 August 2022) /// <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12688.28164">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12688.28164</a> /// Also available at: <a href="https://vixra.org/abs/2208.0023">https://vixra.org/abs/2208.0023</a> and archived here <a href="https://archive.ph/lFNwK">https://archive.ph/lFNwK</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2022c): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M. and Mercier, J. /// Proof that Canada’s COVID-19 mortality statistics are incorrect. /// <em>Correlation Research in the Public Interest</em>, 5 October 2022 /// <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-proof-that-canadas-covid-19-mortality-statistics-are-incorrect/">https://correlation-canada.org/report-proof-that-canadas-covid-19-mortality-statistics-are-incorrect/</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2023a): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M., Hickey, J., Mercier, J. /// COVID-19 vaccine-associated mortality in the Southern Hemisphere /// <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em>, Report, 17 September 2023. <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality-in-the-Southern-Hemisphere/">https://correlation-canada.org/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality-in-the-Southern-Hemisphere/</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2023b): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M., Hickey, J. and Mercier, J. /// Age-stratified COVID-19 vaccine-dose fatality rate for Israel and Australia /// <em>Correlation Research in the Public Interest</em>, 9 February 2023 /// <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-age-stratified-covid-19-vaccine-dose-fatality-rate-for-israel-and-australia/">https://correlation-canada.org/report-age-stratified-covid-19-vaccine-dose-fatality-rate-for-israel-and-australia/</a></p><p>Rancourt and Hickey (2023): Rancourt DG and Hickey J /// Quantitative evaluation of whether the Nobel-Prize-winning COVID-19 vaccine actually saved millions of lives /// <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em>, Brief Report, 08 October 2023 (115 pages). <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/nobel-vaccine-and-all-cause-mortality/">https://correlation-canada.org/nobel-vaccine-and-all-cause-mortality/</a> .</p><p>Rancourt et al. (2024): Rancourt DG, Hickey J, Linard C. /// Spatiotemporal variation of excess all-cause mortality in the world (125 countries) during the Covid period 2020-2023 regarding socio economic factors and public-health and medical interventions. /// <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em>, Report, 19 July 2024 (521 pages). <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries">https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (in preparation): Early publication will be provided at <em>Correlation</em>:</p><p><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">https://correlation-canada.org/research/</a></p><p>Richardson et al. (2020): Richardson, S., Hirsch, J. S., Narasimhan, M., Crawford, J. M., McGinn, T., … Davidson, K. W. /// Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area. /// <em>JAMA</em>. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6775 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6775">https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6775</a></p><p>Riley et al. (1959): Riley R. L., Mills C. C., Nyka W., Weinstock N., Storey P. B., Sultan L. U., Riley M. C., Wells W. F. /// Aerial Dissemination of Pulmonary Tuberculosis. A Two-Year Study of Contagion in a Tuberculosis Ward. /// 19602701598, English, Journal article, 0096-5294, 70, (2), <em>American Journal of Hygiene</em> (185–96) (1959) /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117542">https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117542</a></p><p>Rodrigues (2009): Rodrigues, S. M., LeDoux, J. E., &amp; Sapolsky, R. M. /// The Influence of Stress Hormones on Fear Circuitry. /// <em>Annual Review of Neuroscience</em>, 2009, 32(1), 289–313. doi:10.1146/annurev.neuro.0515 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.neuro.051508.135620">https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.neuro.051508.135620</a></p><p>Roedl et al. (2021): Roedl K, Jarczak D, Thasler L, Bachmann M, Schulte F, Bein B, Weber CF, Schäfer U, Veit C, Hauber HP, Kopp S, Sydow K, de Weerth A, Bota M, Schreiber R, Detsch O, Rogmann JP, Frings D, Sensen B, Burdelski C, Boenisch O, Nierhaus A, de Heer G, Kluge S. /// Mechanical ventilation and mortality among 223 critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019: A multicentric study in Germany. /// <em>Aust Crit Care</em>. 2021 Mar;34(2):167-175. doi: 10.1016/j.aucc.2020.10.009. Epub 2020 Oct 27. PMID: 33250401; PMCID: PMC7590821. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aucc.2020.10.009">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aucc.2020.10.009</a></p><p>Rudge and Gilchrist (2005): Rudge J, Gilchrist R. /// Excess winter morbidity among older people at risk of cold homes: a population-based study in a London borough. /// <em>J Public Health (Oxf)</em>. 2005 Dec;27(4):353-8. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdi051. Epub 2005 Sep 9. PMID: 16155051. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdi051">https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdi051</a></p><p>Salminen (2022): Salminen, A. /// Clinical perspectives on the age-related increase of immunosuppressive activity /// <em>J Mol Med</em> 100, 697–712 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00109-022-02193-4">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00109-022-02193-4</a></p><p>Sapolsky (2005): Robert M Sapolsky /// The Influence of Social Hierarchy on Primate Health (Review) /// <em>Science</em>, 29 April 2005, vol. 308, pages 648-652. DOI: 10.1126/science.1106477. <a href="https://www.pinniped.net/sapolsky2005.pdf">https://www.pinniped.net/sapolsky2005.pdf</a></p><p>Selye (1936): SELYE, H. /// A Syndrome produced by Diverse Nocuous Agents /// <em>Nature</em> 138, 32 (1936). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/138032a0">https://doi.org/10.1038/138032a0</a></p><p>Selye (1956): Hans Selye /// <em>The Stress of Life</em> /// McGraw-Hill Publ., ©1956, 1976, 1984 /// Paperback, revised edition, 1978, ISBN 0-07-056212-1, pp. 515.</p><p>Selye (1976a): Hans Selye //// Stress in Health and Disease /// 1st Edition - January 1, 1976, (encyclopedic book and systematic review) pp. 1302 /// eBook ISBN: 9781483192215 /// <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780407985100/stress-in-health-and-disease">https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780407985100/stress-in-health-and-disease</a></p><p>Selye (1976b): Selye H. /// Forty years of stress research: principal remaining problems and misconceptions /// <em>Can Med Assoc J.</em> 1976 Jul 3;115(1):53-6. PMID: 1277062; PMCID: PMC1878603. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1878603/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1878603/</a></p><p>Seneff et al. (2022): Seneff S, Nigh G, Kyriakopoulos AM, McCullough PA. /// Innate immune suppression by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccinations: The role of G-quadruplexes, exosomes, and MicroRNAs /// <em>Food Chem Toxicol.</em> 2022 Jun;164:113008. doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2022.113008. Epub 2022 Apr 15. PMID: 35436552; PMCID: PMC9012513. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fct.2022.113008">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fct.2022.113008</a></p><p>Sheng et al. (2011): Z. Sheng, D.S. Chertow, X. Ambroggio, S. McCall, R.M. Przygodzki, R.E. Cunningham, O.A. Maximova, J.C. Kash, D.M. Morens, J.K. Taubenberger /// Autopsy series of 68 cases dying before and during the 1918 influenza pandemic peak. /// <em>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A.</em> 2011 Sep 27;108(39):16416-21. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1111179108. Epub 2011 Sep 19. PMID: 21930918; PMCID: PMC3182717. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1111179108">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1111179108</a></p><p>Silk (2002): Silk, J.B. /// Practice random acts of aggression and senseless acts of intimidation: The logic of status contests in social groups /// <em>Evol. Anthropol.</em>, 2002, 11: 221-225. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/evan.10038">https://doi.org/10.1002/evan.10038</a></p><p>Sy (2024): Wilson Sy /// Excess Deaths in the United Kingdom: Midazolam and Euthanasia in the COVID-19 Pandemic /// <em>Medical &amp; Clinical Research</em> (ISSN: 2577 - 8005), 2024, vol. 9(2), pp. 1‑21. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.33140/MCR.09.053">https://doi.org/10.33140/MCR.09.053</a></p><p>Sydenham (1676): Thomas Sydenham /// <em>Medical Observations</em> (book title translated from the Latin by Greenwood) /// see Greenwood (1919): M. Greenwood / Sydenham as an Epidemiologist / <em>Proc R Soc Med.</em> 1919;12(Sect Epidemiol State Med):55-76. PMID: 19980701; PMCID: PMC2066736. / <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2066736/">https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2066736/</a></p><p>Szabo et al. (2017): Szabo S, Yoshida M, Filakovszky J, Juhasz G. /// "Stress" is 80 Years Old: From Hans Selye Original Paper in 1936 to Recent Advances in GI Ulceration /// <em>Curr Pharm Des.</em> 2017;23(27):4029-4041. doi: 10.2174/1381612823666170622110046. PMID: 28641541. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2174/1381612823666170622110046">https://doi.org/10.2174/1381612823666170622110046</a></p><p>Teramoto (2022): Shinji Teramoto /// The current definition, epidemiology, animal models and a novel therapeutic strategy for aspiration pneumonia (Review) /// <em>Respiratory Investigation</em>, Volume 60, Issue 1, 2022, Pages 45-55, ISSN 2212-5345, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resinv.2021.09.012">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resinv.2021.09.012</a></p><p>Torjesen (2021): Torjesen I. /// Covid-19: When to start invasive ventilation is “the million dollar question” /// <em>BMJ</em> 2021; 372 :n121 doi:10.1136/bmj.n121 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n121">https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n121</a></p><p>Torres et al. (2021): Torres, A., Cilloniz, C., Niederman, M.S. et al. /// Pneumonia. /// <em>Nat Rev Dis Primers</em> 7, 25 (2021). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-021-00259-0">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-021-00259-0</a></p><p>Turner et al. (2017): Turner RD, Chiu C, Churchyard GJ, Esmail H, Lewinsohn DM, Gandhi NR, Fennelly KP. /// Tuberculosis Infectiousness and Host Susceptibility. /// <em>J Infect Dis.</em> 2017 Nov 3;216(suppl_6):S636-S643. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jix361. PMID: 29112746; PMCID: PMC5853924. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix361">https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix361</a></p><p>Volkert et al. (2019): Dorothee Volkert, Anne Marie Beck, Tommy Cederholm, Alfonso Cruz-Jentoft, Sabine Goisser, Lee Hooper, Eva Kiesswetter, Marcello Maggio, Agathe Raynaud-Simon, Cornel C. Sieber, Lubos Sobotka, Dieneke van Asselt, Rainer Wirth, Stephan C. Bischoff /// ESPEN guideline on clinical nutrition and hydration in geriatrics /// <em>Clinical Nutrition</em>, Volume 38, Issue 1, 2019, Pages 10-47, ISSN 0261-5614, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clnu.2018.05.024">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clnu.2018.05.024</a></p><p>Von (2022): Theo Von /// Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Informs Us About A Simulated Pandemic Response Event /// video, YouTube Theo Von Clips channel, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@TheoVonClips">https://www.youtube.com/@TheoVonClips</a>, 9 May 2022, #TheoVonClips /// </p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"AnKlKiLhdew","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-AnKlKiLhdew" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/AnKlKiLhdew?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div><p> /// Description: Excerpt from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | TPW 370 /// accessed on 17 November 2024 (10,715 views).</p><p>Watts et al. (2021): WATTS A, POLYCHRONOPOULOU E, PUEBLA NEIRA D. /// TRENDS IN MECHANICAL VENTILATION AND MORTALITY IN HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS WITH COVID-19: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS. /// <em>Chest</em>. 2021 Oct;160(4):A1127. doi: 10.1016/j.chest.2021.07.1033. Epub 2021 Oct 11. PMCID: PMC8503238. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.chest.2021.07.1033">https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.chest.2021.07.1033</a></p><p>Zuercher et al. (2019): Zuercher, P., Moret, C.S., Dziewas, R. et al. /// Dysphagia in the intensive care unit: epidemiology, mechanisms, and clinical management. /// <em>Crit Care</em> 23, 103 (2019). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13054-019-2400-2">https://doi.org/10.1186/s13054-019-2400-2</a></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d14ad2-c232-4f25-b0c4-b50a1991cb36_1920x1527.jpeg","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/did-the-c19-vaccine-kill-17-million
title: Did the C19 vaccine kill 17 million? Yes, but how? Not what you think!
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/did-the-c19-vaccine-kill-17-million
hash: K�XMA-O1���e6~�
content:
<div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc67ab36d-cd8f-4e4e-b357-daaa9502c0b0_3850x2200.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc67ab36d-cd8f-4e4e-b357-daaa9502c0b0_3850x2200.jpeg" width="1456" height="832" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c67ab36d-cd8f-4e4e-b357-daaa9502c0b0_3850x2200.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":832,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":896846,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h1>17 million?</h1><p>My co-authors and I first calculated the now iconic <strong>17 million vaccine-deaths number</strong> (with uncertainties) in two large papers: </p><ol><li><p><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality-in-the-southern-hemisphere/">using Southern Hemisphere countries</a> (2023)</p></li><li><p><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">using 125 countries worldwide</a> (2024)</p></li></ol><p>The accepted test for a causal relation in epidemiology was satisfied.</p><p>We had previously found the temporal associations to be quite striking in: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-probable-causal-association-between-indias-extraordinary-april-july-2021-excess-mortality-event-and-the-vaccine-rollout/">India</a> (2022), <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-probable-causal-association-between-australias-new-regime-of-high-all-cause-mortality-and-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout/">Australia</a> (2022), and <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-age-stratified-covid-19-vaccine-dose-fatality-rate-for-israel-and-australia/">Israel</a> (2023). The vaccine dose fatality rate was exponential with age. </p><p>Vaccine-associated features had also been seen <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-period-mass-vaccination-campaign-and-public-health-disaster-in-the-usa/">in the mortality data of the USA</a> (2022).</p><h1>Excess mortality prior to all C19 vaccine rollouts</h1><p>In 2020, I showed that large excess mortality occurring prior to all vaccine rollouts had to be due to the aggressive extraordinary measures, not a spreading pathogen, in my 2 June 2020 paper: “<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/no-plague-mass-homicide-2020/">All-cause mortality during COVID-19: No plague and a likely signature of mass homicide by government response</a>”. </p><p>We continued this work ever since: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">CORRELATION</a>.</p><p>Essentially no excess mortality occurred anywhere in the world prior to the World Heath Organization’s 11 March 2020 arbitrary declaration of a pandemic. All excess mortality, vaccine induced or not, has been politically driven. </p><p>Arguably the best calculation of total global Covid-period (2020-2022, prior to 2023) excess all-cause mortality (pre- and post-vaccine rollouts) is from <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">our 521-page 2024 paper</a>: </p><ul><li><p>Excess mortality rate 0.392 ± 0.002 %, corresponding to 30.9 ± 0.2 million excess deaths = <strong>31 million all excess deaths up to the end of 2022</strong></p></li></ul><h1>The paradox</h1><p>Coming back to the 17 million vaccine deaths… In this post, I want to address the following paradox:</p><blockquote><p>On the one hand, there is a strong temporal association between C19 vaccine rollouts and excess all-cause mortality, leading to our calculated global C19 vaccine mortality of approximately 17 million, whereas, on the other hand, large-scale adverse-effect monitoring and vaccination-status-differentiated all-cause mortality show a vaccine mortality rate that is some 1000 times smaller than needed to explain the observed vaccine-associated excess all-cause mortality.</p></blockquote><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>This is a significant inconsistency that cannot summarily be disregarded, one way or the other. Both outcomes are based on sufficiently reliable observational data.</p><p>The said paradox cannot be solved solely by showing or proving clever molecular or cellular mechanisms of C19 vaccine harm. It is a quantitative paradox not a conceptual one. </p><p>There is no reasonable doubt that the C19 vaccines cause death, not to mention mass injury, as established in a growing number of published autopsy reports and clinical observations (<a href="https://react19.org/science">3,580 science-journal articles to date</a>). That is not the question. </p><p>Another aspect that should be considered proven is that the notion that the C19 vaccine “saved lives”, or “millions of lives”, is a ridiculous notion. The untenable nature of that theoretical proposition (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00320-6">advanced in </a><em><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00320-6">The Lancet</a></em>) was demonstrated by me and co-author Joseph Hickey here: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/nobel-vaccine-and-all-cause-mortality/">https://correlation-canada.org/nobel-vaccine-and-all-cause-mortality/</a>. Likewise, the <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.03.24316673v1">recent estimate of “lives saved” by Ioannidis and co-authors</a> is erroneous and silly.</p><p>So, on the one hand, there are strong correlations in time between peaks in excess all-cause mortality and vaccine rollouts (hundreds of examples), whereas, on the other hand, reasonably estimated fatal vaccine toxicity is not large enough (by some 3 orders of magnitude) to explain the measured vaccine-associated all-ages excess all-cause mortality. </p><p>I provided an answer to this paradox in section 3.3.6 of my recent paper: <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202412.0480/v1">https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202412.0480/v1</a></p><div data-attrs='{"nodeId":"4dc9b8fd-422a-4c57-9ebb-89ce0c8c73f7","caption":"Citation: Rancourt, DG. Medical Hypothesis: Respiratory epidemics and pandemics without viral transmission. CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest, Report, 02 December 2024. https://correlation-canada.org/respiratory-epidemics-without-viral-transmission/","size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"Medical Hypothesis: Respiratory epidemics and pandemics without viral transmission","publishedBylines":[{"id":118089907,"name":"Denis Rancourt","bio":"Interdisciplinary researcher. PhD in Physics.","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67aac842-e4a3-4d41-8b7e-4392f14841a4_1440x1080.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100},{"id":29382285,"name":"CORRELATION","bio":"CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest is a registered not-for-profit organization conducting independent scientific research on topics of public interest. https://correlation-canada.org","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88087bbd-6df5-4524-bef2-a63080e3ec8a_470x470.png","is_guest":true,"bestseller_tier":null,"primaryPublicationSubscribeUrl":"https://correlationresearch.substack.com/subscribe?","primaryPublicationUrl":"https://correlationresearch.substack.com","primaryPublicationName":"CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest","primaryPublicationId":2441095}],"post_date":"2024-12-03T01:58:42.444Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d14ad2-c232-4f25-b0c4-b50a1991cb36_1920x1527.jpeg","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics","section_name":null,"id":152476528,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":133,"comment_count":9,"publication_name":"Denis’s Substack","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F11a809f5-18dd-42bd-a8b5-be9d66c49bb7_372x372.png","belowTheFold":true}' data-sanitized-class="digest-post-embed"></div><p>This is the abstract of <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202412.0480/v1">that paper</a>:</p><blockquote><p><strong>The spatiotemporal all-cause mortality (weekly time resolution, &gt;100 jurisdictions) during the Covid period (the period of the declared pandemic, 2020-2023) disproves that the excess deaths could have been caused by the spreading contagion of any novel virus or its postulated variants (<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">Rancourt et al., 2024</a>).</strong> What then caused the estimated 31 million excess deaths worldwide (<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">Rancourt et al., 2024</a>)? In this paper, I systematically present many facets (based on the existing scientific literature) of my overall hypothesis whereby the Covid-period pandemic of mortality was a pandemic of transmissionless self-infection bacterial pneumonias induced by biological stress (in the sense of medical researcher Hans Selye, which includes psychological stress) arising from the coordinated and largescale mandates, measures, so-called responses, and medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and vaccination. Transmissionless self-infection bacterial pneumonias are normally prevalent in the geriatric context, where they are known as aspiration pneumonia. Transmissionless pneumonias do not rely on person-to-person transmission or contagion but rather are associated with the stressed or assaulted respiratory tract microbiome. My contribution is to advance that the likelihood of fatal transmissionless pneumonias in the elderly and persons with comorbidities increases significantly with environmental changes or assaults that cause biological stress, and to describe several mechanisms. My hypothesis is that this proposed phenomenon is amply sufficient to cause epidemics, pandemics and seasonal mortality, always targeting the frail and sick, and that Covid was exactly such a case, completely caused by institutions and governments.</p></blockquote><h1>A solution to the paradox</h1><p>A solution is that the C19 vaccine rollouts are themselves systematically accompanied by deadly concomitant measures that cause the vaccine-associated peaks in excess all-cause mortality. </p><p>What are the said concomitant measures and how are they so fatal?</p><p>It turns out that the said concomitant measures are the same kinds of factors that in 2020 caused hot spots of large excess all-cause mortality prior to any C19 vaccine rollout, and that have been causing excess deaths throughout and after the 5 May 2023 end of the declared pandemic.</p><p>I <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202412.0480/v1">most recently put it this way</a>:</p><blockquote><p>… the impugned COVID-19 vaccine rollouts may be synchronously accompanied by concomitant aggressive medical and/or health interventions, and the latter interventions would be the relevant primary cause(s) of death.</p><p>Examples of such accompanying interventions might include:</p><ul><li><p>the use of incorrectly stored or handled COVID-19 vaccination products</p></li><li><p>incorrect combinations of COVID-19 vaccination products from different manufacturers</p></li><li><p>incorrect physical administrations of the COVID-19 vaccine, using rushed or ill-trained staff</p></li><li><p>testing for COVID-19, and the associated consequences of positive test results</p></li><li><p>more aggressive or extreme immobilization and isolation enforcement during the vaccine rollout</p></li><li><p>the psychological stress of being coerced into re-vaccination, in the institutional environment</p></li><li><p>administration of influenza or other vaccinations</p></li><li><p>administration of medications intended to facilitate acceptance or to alleviate side effects of the injections</p></li><li><p>disrupted patient care schedule, including regular medication, meals and hydration</p></li><li><p>transmitted stress of the attendants, or infections from the attendants</p></li><li><p>and so on</p></li></ul><p>The thus associated or accompanying assaults can be different in their array and different in magnitude from one country to another, from one institution to another, and from one COVID-19 vaccine rollout to another (with multiple doses, such as boosters). For example, <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-probable-causal-association-between-indias-extraordinary-april-july-2021-excess-mortality-event-and-the-vaccine-rollout/">Rancourt (2022)</a> discusses the case of India, compared to the consequences of so-called vaccine-equity campaigns in the USA.</p></blockquote><p>Basically, these types of measures, like any campaign of coordinated and largescale aggressive </p><ul><li><p>mandates, </p></li><li><p>measures, </p></li><li><p>so-called responses, and </p></li><li><p>medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and any coerced vaccination</p></li></ul><p>will increase biological stress and thereby induce fatal self-infection transmissionless bacterial pneumonias in elderly and sick people. Social isolation and in-bed immobilization are devastating for the sick and elderly, not to mention deprivation of touch and restriction of breathing. </p><p>This hypothesis is amply supported by a large scientific literature. See: Yup, <a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics">my latest</a>.</p><p>The same basic mechanism (mass environmental or societal assault —&gt; fatal self-infections of the sick and elderly) has probably caused all epidemics and pandemics in history, and the seasonal winter excesses in all-cause mortality, as argued and referenced <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202412.0480/v1">here</a>.</p><h1>Conclusion</h1><p>My goal in this post was to quantitatively explain the bulk of country-wide all-ages excess all-cause mortality, so I left out the devastation of young adults and children who mostly did not die in such great numbers but who did suffer significant and persistent harm. They did measurably die at significantly increased rates compared to their age-specific pre-2020 mortality rates. </p><p>The above discussion means a number of things:</p><ol><li><p>The impact of extraordinary biological stress (which includes psychological stress) on individual health vulnerability and mortality during large societal upheavals was vastly underestimated and largely disregarded by the medical establishment </p></li><li><p>The importance of self-infection transmissionless bacterial pneumonias (e.g.: aspiration pneumonia, catastrophic respiratory microbiome imbalance, emergent tuberculosis) was negligently disregarded, not diagnosed and not treated</p></li><li><p>The same basic mechanism of death operated prior to, during, and after C19 vaccine rollouts: </p></li></ol><p><strong>—&gt;</strong> institutional (top-down) life-changing aggression </p><p><strong>—&gt;</strong> induced biological stress and disruption of respiratory tract microbiome </p><p><strong>—&gt;</strong> self-infection transmissionless bacterial pneumonias </p><p><strong>—&gt;</strong> large-scale deaths of elderly and sick people in care homes, hospitals and institutions</p><p>     Regarding point-1, see, yup, me: </p><div data-attrs='{"nodeId":"1ddae99b-4633-4764-88a4-f8525d960452","caption":"A short presentation I gave to ICS4 delegates in Bucharest, Romania, on 17 November 2023… Video produced by Dr. Jeremie Mercier. We recorded this on the fly, in a closed door session, with permission from the organizers.","size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"Fundamental nature of health","publishedBylines":[{"id":118089907,"name":"Denis Rancourt","bio":"Interdisciplinary researcher. PhD in Physics.","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67aac842-e4a3-4d41-8b7e-4392f14841a4_1440x1080.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100}],"post_date":"2023-11-29T02:31:45.374Z","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07090b74-7904-452a-8148-24e1783afbcb_824x433.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/fundamental-nature-of-health","section_name":null,"id":139253924,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":91,"comment_count":27,"publication_name":"Denis’s Substack","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F11a809f5-18dd-42bd-a8b5-be9d66c49bb7_372x372.png","belowTheFold":true}' data-sanitized-class="digest-post-embed"></div><p>Since essentially none of the C19 vaccine-associated concomitant measures described above would have occurred without the driver of C19 vaccine rollouts… we can conclude that the vaccines were indeed the cause of the 17 million rollout-associated excess deaths, in that sense. This explains the strong temporal associations between mortality and rollouts.</p><p>As I have concluded <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/page.php?id=12&amp;name=videos">in several venues</a>: The declared Covid pandemic (2020-2023) was entirely caused by the coordinated and largescale mandates, measures, so-called responses, and medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and vaccination.</p><p>In terms of immediate excess mortality, the declared Covid pandemic was a pandemic of mistreatment- and biological-stress-induced transmissionless spontaneous bacterial pneumonias attacking the elderly and the sick.</p><p><em>I wrote this essay as a break from our ongoing “heavy-lifting” scientific research at <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/">CORRELATION</a>. We have three major papers coming out in early 2025. Please join and support.</em></p><p><em>Please consider becoming a paying subscriber to this substack to support our tireless efforts, if you can. In any case, this content will always be free and open to all.</em></p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc67ab36d-cd8f-4e4e-b357-daaa9502c0b0_3850x2200.jpeg","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/what-the-declared-pandemic-was-and
title: Opinion: What the declared pandemic was and was not
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/what-the-declared-pandemic-was-and
hash: ����u�d:�/L�.�E
content:
<blockquote><p><strong>Abstract (<a href="https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.28077833.v1">added 2024-12-21</a>):</strong> The declared COVID-19 pandemic was not what we are generally told by all sides. The immunology, clinical and virology narratives are largely disconnected from objective reality ascertained from mortality statistics and socioeconomic factors. No excess mortality would have occurred in the absence of the largescale coordinated institutional assault. The same basic mechanism has probably caused all epidemics and pandemics in history and causes the seasonal winter excesses in all-cause mortality: mass environmental or societal assault —&gt; fatal self-infections (destabilized gut-respiratory-skin microbiomes, and parasite invasions) of the weak, sick and elderly.</p></blockquote><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149b5df4-da3d-4311-b9e2-93a3312fbe29_680x673.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149b5df4-da3d-4311-b9e2-93a3312fbe29_680x673.png" width="680" height="673" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/149b5df4-da3d-4311-b9e2-93a3312fbe29_680x673.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":673,"width":680,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":297253,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2>We need to be political, in the sense of influencing people on all sides</h2><p>We are not going to fix the world with science, and we are not in charge. </p><p>We cannot prevent future elite assaults of this kind. We can only delay and dampen the next round by punishing those responsible, to the best of our abilities.</p><p>Responsibility for punishment is mostly individual, because virtually all the institutions are captured. Effectiveness of individual punishment relies in part on a sufficiently accurate perception of reality, which is a continuous challenge.</p><p>The need for and benefit from people defending themselves are the intrinsic societal reasons for <strong>free speech</strong>. (<a href="https://dissidentvoice.org/author/DenisRancourt/">See many related essays here</a>.)</p><p><strong>Free speech</strong> (with or without permission) exists so that we can punish with words, images, disclosures, logic… and , yes, ridicule and humiliation; and so we can catalyze individual resistance and organizations of opposition. Free speech is not solely so that one can express impactless creativity and have human connection. It is a vital balancing structural mechanism in our social dominance hierarchies.  (<a href="https://dissidentvoice.org/author/DenisRancourt/">See many related essays here</a>.)</p><p>Establishment collaborators, enablers and planners must be exposed and destabilized. The false self-image they adopt and project should be challenged. This is often the only way we can influence those agents away from their compliant and harmful behaviours. </p><p>People know this instinctively, which is why we vote to punish, rather than to reward.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2>What the declared pandemic was</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202412.0480/v1">my recent paper</a> and references therein, I laid it out this way:</p><ol><li><p>The spatiotemporal all-cause mortality (weekly time resolution, &gt;100 jurisdictions) during the Covid period (the period of the declared pandemic, 2020-2023) disproves that the excess deaths could have been caused by the spreading contagion of any novel virus or its postulated variants (<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">Rancourt et al., 2024</a>). </p></li><li><p>There was an estimated 31 million excess deaths worldwide during the Covid period, prior to 2023 (<a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/">Rancourt et al., 2024</a>). </p></li><li><p>This Covid-period pandemic of mortality was caused by the coordinated and largescale mandates, measures, so-called responses, and medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and vaccination. </p></li><li><p>These factors produced a pandemic of effectively transmissionless self-infection bacterial pneumonias induced by the resulting biological stress (in the sense of medical researcher Hans Selye, which includes psychological stress), especially targeting the sick and elderly.</p></li><li><p>All age groups were significantly affected, relative to each age group’s baseline mortality rate, especially young men in many jurisdictions.</p></li><li><p>Proximal causes of death included direct vaccine-harm deaths, heart failures, opioid overdoses, etc.</p></li></ol><p>I followed up with this substack article: “<a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/did-the-c19-vaccine-kill-17-million">Did the C19 vaccine kill 17 million? Yes, but how? Not what you think!</a>”</p><p>Essentially the same basic mechanism <strong>(mass environmental or societal assault —&gt; fatal self-infections of the sick and elderly)</strong> has probably caused all epidemics and pandemics in history, and the seasonal winter excesses in all-cause mortality, as argued and referenced <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202412.0480/v1">here</a>. </p><p>There are two main differences between historic pandemics and the declared Covid pandemic:</p><ul><li><p>In historic pandemics the fatal self-infections could involve the respiratory microbiome, the digestive microbiome, the skin microbiome, and parasites; whereas primarily the respiratory tract microbiome was involved in the majority of Covid-period excess deaths, because of better-than-historic hygienic and nutritional conditions. </p></li><li><p>In historic pandemics the cause of the widespread exceptional biological stress could be environmental catastrophes (e.g. large volcanic explosions), socio-economic (sudden denial of food resources to underclasses), large scale war (and related opioid addictions, e.g. 1918), <a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics">and so on</a>; whereas the declared Covid panademic was an entirely planned and executed military-style assault against populations, completely and artificially caused by institutions and governments.</p></li></ul><p>The Covid assault showed what an intense period of widespread induced biological (including psychological) stress can do.</p><h2>What the declared pandemic was not</h2><p>This means that the following hangouts of rationalization are irrelevant to the real phenomenon of the societal assault that was the declared Covid pandemic:</p><ul><li><p>Viral spread did not occur and is therefore irrelevant</p></li><li><p>Biolab leaks and patents are irrelevant</p></li><li><p>Engineered versus natural presumed pathogen is irrelevant</p></li><li><p>SARS-CoV-2 is irrelevant</p></li><li><p>Testing, tests and case numbers are irrelevant</p></li><li><p>Variants are irrelevant</p></li><li><p>“COVID-19 deaths” are meaningless</p></li><li><p>“Long Covid” is actually from the exposure to intense biological stress (as per above)</p></li><li><p>Loss of smell and taste are common in respiratory tract microbiome infections (<a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/medical-hypothesis-respiratory-epidemics">see references here</a>)</p></li><li><p>Precise theoretical mechanisms of spike protein harm are largely irrelevant (in the big picture)</p></li><li><p>Details of toxic ingredients in the injection products are largely irrelevant (in the big picture)</p></li></ul><p>In the big picture, the elite structures viciously attacked us and our sick and elderly and children. In the big picture, this was an unprecedented mass assault against our populations perpetrated by evil design at the highest levels, enabled by the indoctrinated and spineless professional classes (politicians, clinicians, scientists, judges, media, executives…).</p><h2>Molecular science theorizing disables the impetus for demanding accountability</h2><p>The brain fills with nonsense and pleasures itself thereby masking reality and avoiding responsibility.</p><p>I coined and defined the term “service intellectual” in 2006, here: “<a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/gradual-change-is-not-progress/2377">Gradual Change is not Progress</a>” (<a href="https://archive.ph/QTS0N">archived</a>). The concept is not unrelated to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf7rsCAfQCo">Malcolm X’s “House Negro”</a> (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf7rsCAfQCo">2-minute video!</a>).</p><p>Let us not let the willing army of <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/gradual-change-is-not-progress/2377">service intellectuals</a> direct our attention to molecular theories about the dangers, etc. It is not time to “learn” and superficially converse about immunity, DNA, cell factories, etc. </p><p>This diverts our minds away from the mass crime, away from the injustice, and away from sustained demands and efforts for accountability.</p><p>We are not managers or government lobbyists with access.</p><p>You buy into the mental gymnastics, and it soothes and owns you in the end.</p><p>Do not let yourself become educated away from common sense, self-respect, responsibility and dignity.</p><p>In effect, the willing <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/gradual-change-is-not-progress/2377">service intellectuals</a> are “cooling the mark out”. Don’t let them.</p><p>In 1952, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141009065733/http://www.tau.ac.il/~algazi/mat/Goffman--Cooling.htm">Erving Goffman explained</a> the sociology of “<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/13014214/">cooling the mark out</a>” this way:</p><blockquote><p>In cases of criminal fraud, victims find they must suddenly adapt themselves to the loss of sources of security and status which they had taken for granted. A consideration of this adaptation to loss can lead us to an understanding of some relations in our society between involvements and the selves that are involved. In the argot of the criminal world, the term "mark" refers to any individual who is a victim or prospective victim of certain forms of planned illegal exploitation. The mark is the sucker‑the person who is taken in. An instance of the operation of any particular racket, taken through the full cycle of its steps or phases, is sometimes called a play. The persons who operate the racket and "take" the mark are occasionally called operators. …</p><p>Sometimes, however, a mark is not quite prepared to accept his loss as a gain in experience and to say and do nothing about his venture. He may feel moved to [p. 452] complain to the police or to chase after the operators. In the terminology of the trade, the mark may squawk, beef, or come through. From the operators' point of view, this kind of behavior is bad for business. It gives the members of the mob a bad reputation with such police as have not. yet been fixed and with marks who have not yet been taken. In order to avoid this adverse publicity, an additional phase is sometimes added at the end of the play. It is called cooling the mark out After the blowoff has occurred, one of the operators stays with the mark and makes an effort to keep the anger of the mark within manageable and sensible proportions. The operator stays behind his team‑mates in the capacity of what might be called a cooler and exercises upon the mark the art of consolation. An attempt is made to define the situation for the mark in a way that makes it easy for him to accept the inevitable and quietly go home. The mark is given instruction in the philosophy of taking a loss. … </p></blockquote><p>The extensive work of my co-authors and I proves that there was no pandemic from a spreading respiratory virus: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</a>. </p><p>Like any war, everything was imposed using lies. </p><p>All of us were the mark. We were the victims of a mega-scam, a largescale assault, and we suffered aggressive mandates, military-style measures and all the destructive long-term consequences.</p><p>Many varied agents have been deployed (or have spontaneously taken on the role) to “cool the mark out”. Do not let them. Be persistently angry (about their crime) and be persistently political, in the sense of trying to effectively influence people on all sides.</p><p>Be impervious to the flow of numbing theory. Think and re-think from the ground up, and do not accept baked goods.</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149b5df4-da3d-4311-b9e2-93a3312fbe29_680x673.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/my-27-december-2024-interview-with
title: My 27 December 2024 interview with The Last American Vagabond (TLAV)
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/my-27-december-2024-interview-with
hash: ��Fļ)�K ��x
content:
<p>Check it out</p><p>Main TLAV site: <a href="https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/denis-rancourt-interview-12-27-24/">https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/denis-rancourt-interview-12-27-24/</a></p><p>YouTube: </p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"CczZDHAXw1s","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-CczZDHAXw1s" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/CczZDHAXw1s?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>What do you think? (Please stay on topic)</p><p>The research is here: <em><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">CORRELATION</a></em></p><p>Enjoy!</p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/CczZDHAXw1s","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/far-reaching-interview-removed-from
title: Far-reaching interview removed from YouTube, here it is
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/far-reaching-interview-removed-from
hash: ��� ��s�����M�
content:
<p>This wonderful and important 1h45m interview was removed from YouTube, but here it is, directly in substack. </p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa14df4a2-6e42-4168-843a-7d32157f3a11_558x245.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa14df4a2-6e42-4168-843a-7d32157f3a11_558x245.png" width="558" height="245" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a14df4a2-6e42-4168-843a-7d32157f3a11_558x245.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":245,"width":558,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":13608,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>YouTube, like Facebook, has been notorious and continues covering up the covid crime.</p><p>In this interview, we cover a lot of ground. Many listeners have been very appreciative of several varied aspects of the content. I don’t want to try an give bullet points of highlights. It’s up to you.</p><p>This is my current view of covid, squeezed into one interview. More publications are coming soon.</p><p>We first posted <a href="https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/denis-rancourt-interview-12-27-24/">links</a> to this video here: </p><div data-attrs='{"nodeId":"bdb60cab-f08f-4a31-baf0-2b876200e816","caption":"Check it out","size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"My 27 December 2024 interview with The Last American Vagabond (TLAV)","publishedBylines":[{"id":118089907,"name":"Denis Rancourt","bio":"Interdisciplinary researcher. PhD in Physics.","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67aac842-e4a3-4d41-8b7e-4392f14841a4_1440x1080.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100}],"post_date":"2024-12-28T01:45:35.157Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/CczZDHAXw1s","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/my-27-december-2024-interview-with","section_name":null,"id":153701539,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":63,"comment_count":25,"publication_name":"Denis’s Substack","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F11a809f5-18dd-42bd-a8b5-be9d66c49bb7_372x372.png","belowTheFold":false}' data-sanitized-class="digest-post-embed"></div><p>I again invite comments. </p><p>Please stay on topic.</p><p>The research being discussed is here: <em><a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">CORRELATION</a></em></p><p>Enjoy!</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/153740373/50eadb9db91c2143550a6bacce792bed.mp3","type":"audio/mpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual
title: Opinion: Invalidity of counterfactual models of mortality averted by childhood vaccination
author: ;Denis Rancourt
link: https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual
hash: e4������VBp
content:
<p><em>Citation: Rancourt, DG.</em> <em>Opinion: Invalidity of counterfactual models of mortality averted by childhood vaccination. CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest, Report, 29 January 2025. <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/opinion-childhood-vaccination-mortality-averted">https://correlation-canada.org/opinion-childhood-vaccination-mortality-averted</a></em></p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa76470b3-aac4-4237-9ff7-f895afb188a5_1280x657.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa76470b3-aac4-4237-9ff7-f895afb188a5_1280x657.png" width="1280" height="657" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a76470b3-aac4-4237-9ff7-f895afb188a5_1280x657.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":657,"width":1280,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":213241,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h1>Abstract</h1><p>I express and support the opinion that all models that purport to calculate the mortality (infant mortality in particular) averted by vaccine programmes are invalid because they are based on inputs of vaccine efficacy and pathogen prevalence and virulence that are themselves invalid. Even with ideal testing, the counterfactual number of deaths from a presumed pathogen if the targeting vaccination programme was not implemented is impossible to calculate reliably because it is contrary to biological reality: the deaths of concern are always complex non-linear events that involve several interacting contributing factors that do not have additive effects. Furthermore, infant mortality factors other than vaccination are highly variable and overwhelmingly more important than any presumed vaccine benefit; predominantly, deleterious effects of nutritional deficiencies and of relentless exposures to challenges from toxic living environments. The underlying cause is so-called failed-state extreme poverty due to structural financial exploitation that is not being addressed. There is no known example of a drop in measured infant or child mortality temporally associated with the rollout of a childhood vaccination programme. Independent studies suggest that, contrary to dogma, excess infant mortality (not averted infant mortality) is associated with vaccine programme rollouts and maintenance. Using yearly infant all-cause mortality rate directly, I estimate approximately 100 million vaccine-rollout-associated infant deaths 1974-2024 worldwide, with the caveat of concomitant largescale economic transformations. I conclude, overall, that the longstanding industry of infant vaccination programmes is a baseless fraudulent enterprise of exploitation.</p><p>Researchers and I at CORRELATION and collaborators continue to be engaged in a broad research program of all-cause mortality and its associations with various factors: <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/research/">https://correlation-canada.org/research/</a> </p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h1>Table of contents</h1><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041114">Abstract 1</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041115">Table of contents. 2</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041116">1 Current epidemiological modelling context 3</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041117">2 Crux and purpose of this paper 8</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041118">3 Illustrative example of the 2024 study of Shattock et al. published in</a><em><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041118"> Lancet</a></em><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041118"> 10</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041119">4 Invalidity of the inputs for counterfactual models of mortality averted by vaccination.. 16</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041120">4.1 The clinical trials for vaccine safety and efficacy are inadequately designed, contrived and invalid 16</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041121">4.2 There are no adequate and policy-grade clinical trials for infant vaccine safety. 18</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041122">4.3 Infant mortality factors other than vaccination are overwhelmingly more important than any presumed vaccine benefit 21</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041123">4.4 The hypothetical number of deaths (D0) that would occur from the presumed pathogen in the absence of presumed-beneficial vaccination is impossible to calculate. 26</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041124">5 The opposite is true: Independent studies show vaccination-programme-associated excess infant mortality. 28</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041125">5.1 Correlative temporal analysis of global infant mortality rate and global vaccine coverage rollouts shows vaccine-rollout-associated excess infant mortality. 28</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041126">5.2 Field observational studies show large vaccine-rollout-associated increased infant mortality in low-income countries. 30</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041127">5.3 Correlative and comparative studies find systematic infant-vaccination-associated harm in high-income countries. 31</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041128">5.4 Limitations. 31</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041129">6 Conclusion.. 32</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041130">Acknowledgements. 34</a></p><p><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/opinion-invalidity-of-counterfactual#_Toc189041131">References. 34</a></p><h1>1 Current epidemiological modelling context</h1><p>There are no direct field demonstrations that global infant vaccination programmes reduce infant or childhood mortality, in low-, middle- or high-income countries or communities. The World Health Organization (WHO) gratuitously claims that millions of lives are saved every year (WHO, 2019) but early skepticism (England, 1978; Hendrickse, 1975) and contrary evidence persist (Ahmed et al., 2000; Cutler et al., 2006; and Section 5, below).</p><p>In recent years tentative and untethered models of epidemiological forecasting and epidemiological counterfactual analyses producing unlikely results have flooded the medical literature, including in leading journals.</p><p>These models incorrectly and uncritically rely entirely on estimates of vaccine efficacy and not on any field observations whatsoever of actual deaths and their specific individual-level circumstances.</p><p>The said flood of these kinds of models is cause for legitimate concern regarding public health policy guidance. In the words of Ioannidis et al. (2022):</p><blockquote><p>“Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. …” (Abstract, p. 423)</p><p>“… Poorly performing models and models that perform well for only one dimension of impact can cause harm. It is not just an issue of academic debate, it is an issue of potentially devastating, wrong decisions (ref).” (p. 432)</p></blockquote><p>In counterfactual analysis “the outcomes of the intervention are compared with the outcomes that would have been achieved if the intervention had not been implemented.” (BGI Consulting, 2007)</p><p>The present lack of standards in forecasting and counterfactual exercises gives more than a little credence to the words of former <em>Lancet</em> editor Richard Horton (2004):</p><blockquote><p>“… medical journals have become an important but underrecognized obstacle to scientific truth-telling. Journals have devolved into information-laundering operations for the pharmaceutical industry.”</p></blockquote><p>And more than a little credence to the thesis of former <em>BMJ</em> editor Richard Smith (2005):</p><blockquote><p>“Medical journals are an extension of the marketing arm of pharmaceutical companies.”</p></blockquote><p>The publishing surge of at best questionable forecasting and counterfactual models of mortality averted by vaccination campaigns and programmes is not unrelated to the tsunami of systematic reviews and meta-analyses used in-effect to cover up wholly inadequate and outright concocted clinical trials of vaccine efficacy (Gøtzsche, 2013; Ioannidis, 2016a, 2016b), on which the models are based.</p><p>A few examples of demonstrably false models in the COVID-19 context are as follows.</p><p>Rancourt et al. (2022) showed that a counterfactual analysis published by Canadian government scientists, concluding that approximately 1 million lives had been saved by government COVID-19 measures in Canada, including vaccination, is untenable.</p><p>Rancourt and Hickey (2023) showed that the counterfactual analysis of Watson et al. (2022), published in <em>The Lancet Infectious Diseases</em> and concluding that some 14 to 20 million worldwide deaths were prevented by COVID-19 vaccinations, is impossible.</p><p>Separately, and contrary to the Watson et al. (2022) counterfactual, Rancourt et al. (2023, 2024) showed that COVID-19 vaccination rollouts are systematically and strongly associated in time with surges and peaks in excess all-cause mortality, quantified to approximately 17 million vaccine-rollout-associated excess deaths worldwide during the declared pandemic. Also, see the discussion of this number of vaccine-rollout-associated deaths by Rancourt (2024).</p><p>Ioannidis, with co-authors (2024), incorrectly projected that 1.4 to 4.0 million lives were saved by COVID-19 vaccinations worldwide, until October 2024. The underlying assumptions in their calculation are unjustified. Their estimate is a counterfactual comparison but not one that uses epidemiological modelling of contagious spread to estimate the deaths without intervention. Instead, they use seroprevalence data and reported COVID-19 deaths. Nonetheless, their analysis illustrates the core difficulties with all epidemiological counterfactual and forecast models based on presumed vaccine efficacy and estimated mortality if vaccination had not been implemented.</p><p>The said core difficulties are this. One must derive the number of deaths, D0, that should occur from the presumed pathogen in the absence of the intervention (i.e., without vaccination) and use an estimate of the vaccine efficacy, Ev, in preventing deaths. Ev is the vaccine-attributed reduction of probability of death per person presumed to be fatally infected. In simple terms, the number of lives saved, Ls, (or deaths averted) is then the product of D0, Ev and vaccine coverage Cv:</p><p>Ls = D0 x Ev x Cv. (1)</p><p>Cv can be known with relative certainty, whereas D0 and Ev are disjunctively and irreparably problematic. Ioannidis et al. (2024) do not resolve or sufficiently recognize these problems:</p><p>1. They take vaccine efficacy, Ev, to be as derived from clinical trials, without due skepticism, despite the healthy skepticism prominently expressed by Ioannidis in the past regarding medical research in general (Ioannidis, 2005), and clinical trials in particular (Ioannidis, 2016a, 2016b).</p><p>2. They estimate D0 from available seroprevalence data, combined with estimates of infection fatality rates (IFRs), which in turn rely on seroprevalence data and reported COVID-19 deaths, without sufficiently questioning the validity, specificity and validation of the seroprevalence tests or assays (they treat the tests as a valid blackbox technology), not to mention the questionable validity of reported COVID-19 deaths used in calculating the IFRs.</p><p>Antibody tests (seroprevalence) approved for presumed COVID-19 and used in high-profile epidemiological studies can be shown to be invalid (Rancourt, 2021).</p><p>Regarding the likelihood that published clinical trial findings of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy are valid, the landmark report of Gøtzsche (2013) leaves little doubt that such trials for any vaccine cannot be trusted whatsoever, given the structural nature of the industry, not to mention the exceptionally politicized and captured institutional context of the declared COVID-19 pandemic. And we should be cognizant of the following partial generic list provided by Smith (2005):</p><blockquote><p>Examples of Methods for Pharmaceutical Companies to Get the Results They Want from Clinical Trials</p><p>• Conduct a trial of your drug against a treatment known to be inferior.</p><p>• Trial your drugs against too low a dose of a competitor drug.</p><p>• Conduct a trial of your drug against too high a dose of a competitor drug (making your drug seem less toxic).</p><p>• Conduct trials that are too small to show differences from competitor drugs.</p><p>• Use multiple endpoints in the trial and select for publication those that give favourable results.</p><p>• Do multicentre trials and select for publication results from centres that are favourable.</p><p>• Conduct subgroup analyses and select for publication those that are favourable.</p><p>• Present results that are most likely to impress—for example, reduction in relative rather than absolute risk.</p></blockquote><p>Furthermore, Ioannidis et al. (2024) perform their projection of lives saved without tethering their estimate to measured all-cause mortality (by time, by jurisdiction, and by age group). They simply neglect to examine any connection to hard mortality data and they state, under the heading “General principles”, in their Appendix 1:</p><blockquote><p>“In calculating our estimates, we do not consider deaths and other consequences from adverse effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, nor do we make any adjustment for the quality of life-years saved. Moreover, we do not attempt to calculate indirect effects of COVID-19 vaccination which may have modulated excess deaths through an impact on non-COVID-19 causes of death.”</p></blockquote><p>It is a common characteristic of counterfactual and forecasting models reporting on benefits of interventions not to attempt to tether their often fantastic results to hard all-cause mortality data (e.g., Rancourt and Hickey, 2023).</p><p>There are many more failures of epidemiological modelling of the declared COVID-19 pandemic than the few mentioned above (Ioannidis et al., 2022). As though buoyed by this COVID-19 flood of epidemiological modelling, and possibly motivated by rising Covid-era vaccine hesitancy of parents in the Western world (Lazarus et al., 2023), many published articles are now making fantastic claims about worldwide benefits from childhood vaccination programmes, which are the main subject of the present paper.</p><h1>2 Crux and purpose of this paper</h1><p>Recently, many modelling studies have been published in both specialized and leading medical journals, in which the authors purport to reliably estimate historic mortality averted by global vaccination programmes, especially childhood vaccination programmes. An incomplete list of these journal articles includes: Auzenbergs et al., 2023; Carter et al., 2024; Cutts et al., 2020; Echeverria-Londono et al., 2021; Gaythorpe et al., 2021; Li et al., 2021; Mesa et al., 2023; Rouch et al., 2007; Shattock et al., 2024; Toor et al., 2021; Verguet et al., 2015; Winter et al., 2022; and references therein.</p><p>In the present paper, following Section 1, I argue that all such models of mortality averted by universal (often childhood) vaccination programmes are invalid because of two fatal disjunctive difficulties. The said fatal disjunctive difficulties are:</p><p>1. All such estimates of averted mortality rely on impressions of vaccine safety and efficacy from clinical trials. The clinical trials are systemically unreliable (concocted, rigged), and do not evaluate safety. They are inadequate and inapplicable by design, irrespective of intent (Sections 1 and 4).</p><p>2. All such estimates of averted mortality rely on guesstimates of deaths caused by the specific presumed pathogen that would have occurred if the intervention (vaccination) had not been implemented. These guesstimates are impossible to make reliably (Sections 1 and 4).</p><p>I argue that the proverbial computing term “garbage in, garbage out” pre-eminently applies in these circumstances.</p><p>The published modelling studies fail to follow scientific norms by never including propagated error bounds starting from realistic assessments of the core uncertainties. If they did, they would not have any results to report beyond inadequacy of the approach.</p><p>The utilized guesstimates of deaths caused by the specific presumed pathogen that would have occurred if the childhood vaccinations had not been implemented (D0, Equation 1) most often rely on siloed epidemiological models of spreading contagion (so-called dynamic models), which are not validated, and which themselves are fundamentally not reliable. The said guesstimates are not anchored in comparative comprehensive field-based studies, which are virtually never undertaken.</p><p>If the researchers duly attempted to validate or justify their estimates of averted mortality by comparisons with the historic evolution of all-cause or cause-specific and all-ages or age-specific mortality, they would encounter the insurmountable difficulty that early-life mortality rates are predominantly determined by many interacting factors other than vaccination, and that any vaccination contribution cannot independently be ascertained from the available data (Sections 4.3 and 4.4).</p><p>Finally, there is the inconvenient fact that, to my knowledge and until proven otherwise, there is no known example of a drop in measured infant or child mortality temporally associated with any rollout of a childhood vaccination campaign or initiation of a permanent childhood vaccination programme. On the contrary, comparative studies report a positive association between childhood mortality and childhood vaccination doses administered (Section 5).</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h1>3 Illustrative example of the 2024 study of Shattock et al. published in<em> Lancet</em></h1><p>A recent example of the type of study that concerns us is the study by Shattock et al. (2024).</p><p>The claims of Shattock et al. (2024) are not modest, with outcomes cited to 3 significant figures (Stewart, 2024):</p><blockquote><p>“Findings ― Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood.”</p></blockquote><p>The claimed worldwide 154 million deaths averted by vaccination intervention in the 50 years (1974-2024) corresponds to 5.7 % of worldwide deaths, on a per year basis, which is a fantastic claimed medical achievement. Some might reasonably call it unbelievable.</p><p>The Shattock et al. (2024) claim is aligned with a media statement made by the WHO for 2019 (WHO, 2019):</p><blockquote><p>“Vaccine hesitancy – the reluctance or refusal to vaccinate despite the availability of vaccines – threatens to reverse progress made in tackling vaccine-preventable diseases. Vaccination is one of the most cost-effective ways of avoiding disease – it currently prevents 2-3 million deaths a year, and a further 1.5 million could be avoided if global coverage of vaccinations improved.”</p></blockquote><p>The 2-3 million averted deaths a year claimed by the WHO corresponds to 100-150 million averted deaths in the 50-year period studied by Shattock et al. (2024), and the further 1.5 million averted deaths a year from complete vaccine coverage would correspond to an approximately 20% global reduction in infant mortality, in the absence of any other intervention, a truly remarkable feat if it was realistic.</p><p>The Shattock et al. (2024) “study was funded by WHO. … Model outputs were provided by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC...) … VIMC is funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.” (p. 2315)</p><p>The Declaration of interests of the authors is given as (p. 2315):</p><blockquote><p>“CLT and KAMG assert that their employer, Imperial College, receives funding for the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the Wellcome Trust. CLT has received consulting fees from GSK for attending an advisory board meeting on CMV vaccines in May, 2022 and is pro bono Chair of the Scientific Advisory Panel of the Meningitis Research Foundation. HF asserts that her employer, London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine, receives funding for the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from the Gates Foundation. JFM asserts that his employer, University of Washington, receives grant funding from Gavi and from the Gates Foundation. KB and KMT assert that their organisation Kid Risk holds a cooperative agreement with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and holds grants from the Gates Foundation. MJF asserts that his employer, Penn State University, is a subrecipient of funds from Imperial College London for a grant from Gavi and that he holds grants from the Gates Foundation and the US National Science Foundation. MJ asserts that his employer, London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine, receives funding from the UK National Institute of Health Research, RCUK; the Gates Foundation; Gavi; the Wellcome Trust; WHO; the European Commission; the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government; and the Task Force for Global Health. RAH and SPS assert that their employer, University of Cape Town, receives grant funding from the African Field Epidemiology Network and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RGW asserts that he receives funding from the Wellcome Trust (grant numbers 218261/Z/19/Z), National Institutes of Health (1R01AI147321-01, G-202303-69963, and R-202309-71190), European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (RIA208D-2505B), UK Medical Research Council (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), UK Economic and Social Research Council (ES/P008011/1), Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-004737 and INV-035506), and WHO (2020/985800-0). AL, KLO-B, NB-Z, PL, RCWH, and SYS work for WHO. All other authors declare no competing interests.”</p></blockquote><p>Such ties are common in these kinds of articles in leading journals, not to mention the interests of the journals, editors and reviewers (Gøtzsche, 2013).</p><p>I next examine the stated methods used by Shattock et al. (2024). Going beyond the broad non-specific statements such as “We developed a standardised analytical framework to estimate vaccine impact per fully vaccinated person over time, synthesising the results of 22 models and applying regression-based imputation methods to ensure geographical and temporal completeness.” (p. 2308), it is clear that Shattock et al. (2024) applied the usual approach (Equation 1: Ls = D0 x Ev x Cv): “Vaccine efficacy and vaccine coverage were combined to produce an estimate of effective vaccine coverage, which was then used to estimate disease-attributable mortality and morbidity in a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination for the nine vaccines considered (appendix pp 25–26).” (p. 2310)</p><p>Shattock et al. (2024) used two different methods to estimate counterfactual deaths, D0, depending on whether the presumed pathogen was considered to be either contagious or of a background-prevalence nature. For contagious pathogens, they used so-called “published dynamic models”, whereas for the background-prevalence pathogens they used published prevalence determinations (p. 2310).</p><p>The so-called dynamic models are standard epidemiological models of contagious spread, infused with the theoretical impacts of concomitant vaccine administration. This allowed Shattock et al. (2024) to theoretically account for so-called immune waning (part of vaccine efficacy, estimated from clinical trials) and to theoretically include the effects of boosting or of not fully vaccinated individuals.</p><p>The so-called dynamic models themselves have not been validated and have insurmountable difficulties related to high sensitivity to transmission, recovery and virulence input parameters, if their fundamental underlying assumptions are even valid (e.g., Hickey and Rancourt, 2023a, 2023b). For example, in particular, the needed infectious contact frequencies are essentially impossible to empirically determine (e.g., Hickey and Rancourt, 2023a, 2023b). Also, such models are in their infancy regarding realistic geo‑temporal spread of infections (Keeling and Rohani, 2008).</p><p>Therefore, the study of Shattock et al. (2024) collapses on examination of its premises regarding D0 and Ev, defined in Equation 1.</p><p>Shattock et al. (2024) go further. For their Figure 2, they plot a hypothetical constant no‑improvement global infant mortality scenario (1974-2024) arbitrarily fixed at the 1974 value, a hypothetical no‑vaccination scenario, and the as-observed actual infant mortality (with vaccination), all as functions of time since 1974. The constructed graph corresponds to vaccination being responsible for 40 % of the reduction in infant mortality since 1974, and 25 % in 2024. These, again, are fantastic claims of life-saving benefits from the medical interventions as sole factors.</p><p>Beyond the fantastic magnitude of the claimed effect, Shattock et al. (2024)’s Figure 2 is incorrectly presented and interpreted regarding three other aspects:</p><p>· First. There is no consideration of error or uncertainty. No uncertainty range is shown for the partitioning between averted infant mortality by vaccination and by all other factors; error bounds are not reported in the paper; and the paper does not discuss any limitations. The paper does not have any discussion of the other factors associated with reduced infant mortality and the geo‑temporal variations of these factors since 1974. This is difficult to accept given the known dominance and variability of factors other than vaccination in determining infant mortality (Armstrong et al., 1999; Cutler and Miller, 2004; Cutler et al., 2006; McKinlay and McKinlay, 1977; UN, 2019; Section 4.3).</p><p>· Second. Panel C of Shattock et al. (2024)’s Figure 2 shows the worldwide vaccine rollouts, as percent global vaccine coverages by year since 1974. Whereas the said rollouts show rapid rises prior to saturation, there are no temporally associated decreases in infant mortality rate (panel A) or associated slowing in cumulative infant deaths (panel B). This constitutes evidence that the vaccines at best have no beneficial impact on infant mortality, yet the apparent absence of presumably expected positive temporal association is not mentioned by Shattock et al. (2024).</p><p>· Third. In fact, Shattock et al. (2024)’s Figure 2 discloses temporal correlations between the said vaccine rollouts (increasing global vaccine coverage, panel C) and increases in infant mortality rate (panel A) relative to linear interpolations from early years (1974+) with smaller vaccine coverage, which is the opposite of an infant mortality benefit from vaccination. This is not mentioned by Shattock et al. (2024).</p><p>The latter point is illustrated in my Figure 1, below, which uses panels A and C from Shattock et al. (2024)’s Figure 2. Here, the added grey vertical lines are guides to the eye, positioned at approximately 1983 and approximately 1992. The purple straight line is an extrapolation from the best adjusted line on the as-observed infant mortality rate between 1974 and 1983, when little global vaccine coverage was occurring. The green straight line is an extrapolation from the best adjusted line on the as-observed infant mortality rate between 1974 and 1992, which is prior to the second and later generations of vaccine rollouts. The second and later generations of vaccine rollouts occurred after the first-generation rollouts had plateaued (panel C).</p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdadd6811-246b-495b-8e26-27aa9231ce12_1062x960.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdadd6811-246b-495b-8e26-27aa9231ce12_1062x960.jpeg" width="1062" height="960" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dadd6811-246b-495b-8e26-27aa9231ce12_1062x960.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":960,"width":1062,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":115816,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" loading="lazy" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Figure 1. Adapted panels A (global infant mortality rate) and C (global vaccine coverage rollouts) from Shattock et al. (2024)’s Figure 2, with added grey vertical lines, and added purple and green straight lines, as discussed in the text. Shattock et al. (2024) calculate that 101 million infant deaths were averted by vaccination (blue area).</p><p>Shattock et al. (2024) calculate ― remarkably using 3 significant numbers and no confidence interval ― that 101 million deaths of infants younger than 1 year were averted by vaccination (p. 2312), which is the blue area in their Figure 2 (my Figure 1). In fact, if anything, the opposite may be true. The difference between my purple-line extrapolation (which assumes a constant rate of reduction of infant mortality rate from improvements of factors other than vaccination, needing to be corrected to give a positive rate after approximately 2016) and the as-observed infant mortality rate (solid black line, panel A) corresponds to approximately 100 million vaccine-rollout-associated infant deaths 1974-2024 worldwide. If large concomitant deleterious socio-economic changes did not occur (starting in the 1980s and in the 1990s), this would imply that approximately 100 million infant deaths (worldwide, 1974-2024) would not have occurred if the intervention of vaccinations had not been implemented. Shattock et al. (2024) did not consider this, whereas it is apparent in their own data.</p><h1>4 Invalidity of the inputs for counterfactual models of mortality averted by vaccination</h1><p>Here, I elaborate each of the sources mentioned above of fundamental invalidity of the usual forecasting and counterfactual models of mortality averted by vaccination.</p><h2>4.1 The clinical trials for vaccine safety and efficacy are inadequately designed, contrived and invalid</h2><p>The published clinical trials of vaccine efficacy cannot be taken to be valid because the entire clinical trial and publication process is overwhelmingly controlled by an industry making large profits from the vaccines, and this industry has amply, historically, consistently and repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to act fraudulently at the expense of endangering the public (Gøtzsche, 2013). Gøtzsche (2013)’s landmark documented overview proves that the degree of deceit and corruption is astronomical and deeply entrenched. Reasonable researchers must conclude that clinical trial evaluations of vaccine efficacy are unusable. See also the career-informed corroborating assessments of editors at leading medical journals: <em>Lancet</em>, Horton (2004); and <em>BMJ</em>, Smith (2005).</p><p>Even relying solely on the tunnelled and sanitized published scientific-journal reports ― without any inside knowledge or access to the industry-locked patient-level trial data ― many academic researchers had in 2003 already demonstrated a strong (4-fold) funding bias in published results (reviews: Bekelman et al., 2003; Lexchin et al., 2003). See also: Elisha et al. (2021).</p><p>Irrespective of the overwhelming evidence of corruption in the conduct of clinical trials, Krauss (2018) explained that defining features of randomized clinical trial design make them intrinsically unreliable in most applications, in his article entitled “Why all randomised controlled trials produce biased results” (Krauss, 2018). Major problems identified by Krauss are many and include these structural features:</p><p>1. The selection (so-called enrolment) of trial participants (prior to randomization) is: (a) not random; (b) not transparent; and (c) not representative of the actual in‑field target population for the intended medical intervention.</p><p>2. Even in the absence of outright manipulation, the applied randomization in‑practice does not result in comparable control and intervention arms.</p><p>3. These and other aspects of the trials are susceptible to bias and interference, not to mention blocking and burying trials and data that are not desirable to the industry.</p><p>4. There is no transparency regarding in-trial enrolment and in-trial exclusions of counted participants.</p><p>Regarding lack of transparency, in the words of Mangin et al. (2018), in the Western-nation geriatric context, their 6th recommendation is:</p><blockquote><p>“6. Acknowledge and address commercial influences on polypharmacy: trial results should not be implemented in older adults unless access to all available patient-level data is provided. Appropriate outcome measures should be required before licensing indications that include older populations.</p><p>The degree to which commercial interests can potentially distort scientific data is well documented [126,127,128,129,130,131]. Trials can be structured to provide commercially favorable results and there is limited access to patient-level trial and adverse-event data, which are grounds for precautionary prescribing [132]. Use of intermediate outcomes, publication bias, and overhyping of new or immature research results by media and pharmaceutical companies result in a research narrative that overestimates efficacy, underestimates harms, and fuels IMUP [inappropriate medication use and polypharmacy] [133,134,135]. Evidence bias is commonly compounded by biased interpretation, where key opinion leaders have industry conflicts of interest [136].”</p></blockquote><p>Access to all patient-level data (not just “available” patient-level data, including patients that were excluded in the in-trial process) is essentially never granted to independent or competing researchers by the controlling pharmaceutical corporation, in any clinical trial, and can be presumed to be in-effect hidden from even the government agencies. Therefore, following the above-noted principle expressed by Mangin et al. (2018), “trial results should not be implemented”. I don’t see any good reason why this principle would not be universally applied in all circumstances in which a clinical trial is needed to tease out any benefit from the promoted medical intervention, or in which a small number of dropped or different patients could make the claimed benefit disappear.</p><p>Regarding infants, unhealthy infants are not enrolled in a clinical trial, whereas, in practice, unhealthy infants are vaccinated. That unhealthy infants are routinely vaccinated is especially true in the low-income countries with (United Nations) UN‑promoted universal vaccination programmes, whereas the clinical trials were virtually always performed on healthy children in Western facilities. Furthermore, clinical trial enrolment exclusion criteria are strictly imposed (and are not applied transparently), whereas the in-field decision not to vaccinate because of poor health is more fluid and left to individual clinical or practitioner judgement.</p><h2>4.2 There are no adequate and policy-grade clinical trials for infant vaccine safety</h2><p>Infants and children are distinct from adults, especially in regards to their developing gut microbiomes and immune systems, and especially in the first several months and up to 3 or more years of age (Arrieta et al., 2014; Laforest-Lapointe and Arrieta, 2017; Olin et al., 2018; Ygberg and Nilsson, 2012).</p><p>Therefore, any clinical trial intended to establish safety of a childhood vaccine administered to an infant must monitor participant health at least up to 3 or more years in age. This is never done (Brand and Siri, 2024; ICAN, 2017).</p><p>Any clinical trial intended to establish safety of a childhood vaccine administered to an infant must include a control arm with either no vaccination or an inert placebo. This is virtually never done (Brand and Siri, 2024; ICAN, 2017). There is no valid reason not to have a control arm or to insist on using an active placebo, because evaluating clinicians, statisticians, caregivers and parents can be blinded to the intervention, and the infants and children are not subjectively self-reporting the adverse-effect outcomes. Without such a control arm (no vaccination or inert placebo), safety is not evaluated.</p><p>Most importantly, any clinical trial intended to establish safety of a childhood vaccine administered to an infant must use participants having health statuses and vulnerabilities representative of the actual in-field target population for the vaccine. This is never done because it is strictly unethical to expose a vulnerable or fragile infant to a non-benign and untested preventative medical intervention.</p><p>Yet, on a population scale, with actual vaccination programmes, many subjects will not be excluded who have poor health status and significant vulnerabilities. This is especially true in low-income countries and communities where malnutrition and its devastating health consequences are the norm (Ahmad et al., 2000; Bailey et al., 2015; England, 1978; Gombart et al., 2020; Hendrickse, 1975; Katoch, 2022; Katona and Katona-Apte, 2008; Keusch, 2003; Rodiguez et al., 2011; Scrimshaw, 2003; Scrimshaw et al., 1968).</p><p>Therefore, so-called randomized clinical trials of vaccines for infants provide no information about safety, and do not allow one to estimate impacts on infant mortality from vaccine adverse effects and toxicity, especially in low-income countries. Vaccine safety cannot be assumed in forecasting and counterfactual theoretical models of mortality. Published clinical trial results claiming vaccine efficacy (Section 4.1) do not demonstrate vaccine safety for real-world applications.</p><p>Even if valid vaccine safety clinical trials on infants and children existed from Western-world clinics and hospitals, which they do not (Brand and Siri, 2024; ICAN, 2017), the trial subjects would not be comparable to the malnourished and differently challenged infants and children in low-income countries. Again, there is a strong gut microbiome to immune system interaction in the immune development of infants and children, which determines survival and health (Arrieta et al., 2014; Laforest-Lapointe and Arrieta, 2017; Olin et al., 2018; Ygberg and Nilsson, 2012). For example, gut microbiome adaptation even compensates for the challenges of undernourishment, and this alone is good reason not to artificially interfere directly with immunity.</p><p>A rare example involving candidate clinical trials regarding harm in vaccinating vulnerable infants is the case of clinical trials for cardiorespiratory events in preterm infants, which were already known to occur from retrospective and observational studies. There are two randomized comparative clinical trials (2-month vaccination versus no vaccination) for a defined outcome observed within 48 hours (Carbone et al., 2008; Greenberg et al., 2025). Both had small clinically selected cohorts (approximately 100 in each comparison group, selected by health status prior to randomization) and insufficiently small numbers of observed events (approximately 10). Both trials carefully avoided infant participants with negative or unstable health conditions. The two trials report contrary conclusions. The trial finding no harm from vaccination ambiguously states “Infants who required assisted ventilation or tracheostomy during the study were excluded from participation.” (p. e1086, Carbone et al., 2008), and does not report the funding sources of its organization. The other trial has the following funding and interests statements (Greenberg et al., 2025) (p. E8):</p><blockquote><p><strong>Funding/Support:</strong> This study was supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment Project contracts …).</p><p><strong>Role of the Funder/Sponsor: </strong>The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention participated in the design and conduct of the study; interpretation of the data; preparation, review, and approval of the manuscript; and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. …</p><p><strong>Conflict of Interest Disclosures: </strong>Dr Greenberg reported consulting for Oak Hill Bio outside the submitted work. Dr Staat reported grants from Pfizer (respiratory syncytial virus vaccine study), Merck (rotavirus study), and Cepheid (respiratory infection diagnostics) outside the submitted work. Dr Schlaudecker reported grants from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the conduct of the study and grants from Pfizer and advisory committee service from Sanofi Pasteur outside the submitted work. Dr Laughon reported grants from the National Institutes of Health and the US Food and Drug Administration outside the submitted work. Dr Walter reported grants from Pfizer (investigator for clinical trial), Moderna (investigator for clinical trial), Sequiris (investigator for clinical trial), Najit Technologies (investigator for clinical trial), and Clinetic (investigator for clinical trial) and personal fees from Vaxcyte (advisory board), Pfizer (advisory board), Iliad Biotechnologies (consultant), and Shionogi (data safety monitoring board) outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were reported.</p></blockquote><p>These two clinical trials are not valid for policy guidance. In addition, here also, the trial participation criteria and decisions for inclusion are not representative of the real world of global infant vaccination campaigns.</p><h2>4.3 Infant mortality factors other than vaccination are overwhelmingly more important than any presumed vaccine benefit</h2><p>Clinical experience and research have long informed us that infant and child mortality in low-income countries is far more complex than the arguably irrelevant tunnel-vision view of specific pathogens and so-called immunization campaigns against the said specific pathogens (England, 1978; Hendrickse, 1975). Likewise, epidemiology informs us that factors other than vaccination overwhelmingly determine improvements in infant mortality (Ahmad et al., 2000; Armstrong et al., 1999; Black et al., 2003; Cutler and Miller, 2004; Cutler et al., 2006; Hendrickse, 1997; Humphries and Bystrianyk, 2015; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2016; McKinlay and McKinlay, 1977; Scrimshaw, 2003; Scrimshaw et al., 1968). These points should be recognized by all public health researchers, including those using theoretical models.</p><p>Comments of early informed skeptics are noteworthy.</p><p>In the words of tropical medicine researcher Hendrickse (1975):</p><blockquote><p>… there is considerable danger that the benefits of measles vaccination will not measure up to expectations either in respect of reducing costs of treating the sick or in respect of reduction in childhood mortality. The reasons for this belief are:-</p><p>(1) Most estimates of measles mortality in developing countries have been extrapolated from hospital experience and such extrapolation is notoriously unreliable.</p><p>(2) All available evidence indicates that Protein Energy Malnutrition is one of the main determinants of measles morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Most deaths from measles occur in children whose weights fall below the 10th centile for age, and the disease is particularly lethal in children with kwashiorkor, an illness which has a high mortality rate in its own right.</p><p>(3) A very high proportion of those who die of measles succumb after the acute phase of the disease, in the so-called post-measles phase, from complicating infections such as bronchopneumonia and gastro-enteritis. …</p><p>It is pertinent to recall that 100 years ago measles was as serious a problem in Europe as it is in Africa today, yet the death rate from this disease and many other infectious diseases declined to negligible proportions with improvement in living standards long before vaccines became available.</p></blockquote><p>Regarding the latter pivotal point of Hendrickse (1975), see: Armstrong et al. (1999), Humphries and Bystrianyk (2015) and McKinlay and McKinlay (1977).</p><p>In the published post-presentation discussion of the Hendrickse (1975) paper, the following points <em>inter alia</em> emerged:</p><p>· “Measles as a cause of death has been queried. Anyone who has practised medicine in rural Africa is familiar with the toddlers who run about, apparently quite happily, with their bloods full of malarial parasites. If any intercurrent illness, a cold, enteritis, or (particularly) measles comes along, <em>Plasmodium falciparum</em> infection can exacerbate with lightning speed and kill within 48 hours. A dying baby in West Africa probably has pneumonia―measles or no measles―and enteritis; malaria is invariably present, and if one had to adjudicate on the real cause of death, malaria probably should get the verdict more often than not. However measles is a ‘straw’ placed on the camel’s back, acting as one of the final insults to an already sick and enfeebled child. Both measles and malaria play a large part in the precipitation of malnutrition and in the high mortality rates of the infant and toddler age group.”</p><p>· “The risks of vaccine were discussed. No figures are available from developing countries but the confidence that people have in the vaccine may be taken as an assurance that it is unlikely that complications (especially neurological) are occurring more often than in Europe.”</p><p>Note that the dogma of measles as a primary cause of death in low-income countries is expertly put into doubt and is judged to be unlikely.</p><p>England (1978) summarized the situation this way: “Acute diarrheal disease and infections of the upper respiratory tract, whether presented or not, undoubtedly represent the most widespread causes of mortality and morbidity in poorer countries. Both are invariably clinical syndromes ‘.... that include a minority of known disease entities, a predominating bulk of undifferentiated, presumably infectious processes, and an indefinite number of non-infectious illnesses.’ (Scrimshaw et al., 1968)”</p><p>Both Hendrickse (1975) and England (1978) anchored some of their positions in the colossal work of Scrimshaw et al. (1968), which has been confirmed in the decades that followed (Scrimshaw, 2003). There is presently little doubt that immune dysfunction (via the gut microbiome) and susceptibility to varied (full spectrum) infections is overwhelmingly determined by nutritional status and deficiencies, especially in low-income countries and communities (Bailey et al., 2015; Gombart et al., 2020; Katoch, 2022; Katona and Katona-Apte, 2008; Keusch, 2003; Rodiguez et al., 2011; Scrimshaw, 2003; Scrimshaw et al., 1968). Likewise, similarly to any natural infection, even a mild immune response from vaccination is a challenge that can accelerate death in a malnourished infant or child, and Scrimshaw et al. (1968) reported such rarely documented cases.</p><p>Basically, in the absence of environmental toxicity, non-specific malnutrition (including of the mother) makes an infant or child highly vulnerable to death associated with a large array of possible infections ― infections that do not occur or are not fatal or debilitating in well-nourished individuals in healthy environments. Recognized global studies quantify this, thus showing that the vaccination programmes have relatively little potential to save lives (Black et al., 2003; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2016). This follows the conceptual framework proposed by Mosley and Chen (1984), which excludes dominance aggression, violence and addictions.</p><p>As such, immune dysfunction and infections are the main proximal causes of infant death in low-income countries. The corresponding risk of infant death depends on both fitness (primarily dependent on nutritional deficiencies) and exposure (primarily dependent on living and public-health conditions). Fitness is the dominant factor in circumstances of severe malnutrition, whereas exposure contributes significantly to infant mortality where strong environmental toxins and virulent pathogens and parasites are prevalent.</p><p>Here, the said exposure to strong environmental toxins and virulent pathogens and parasites is not exposure to the specific pathogens for which vaccines are typically developed and marketed. Rather, the strong environmental toxins are, for example, aflatoxin produced by fungi growing on staple foodstuffs in hot climates, which can be transferred by mother’s milk (Hendrickse, 1997); and the said virulent pathogens and parasites are, for example, waterborne parasitic protozoa of faecal origin (Baldursson and Karanis, 2011; Cutler and miller, 2004). Then, such strong exposures can significantly contribute to infant mortality, even with moderate prevalence of malnutrition or in the absence of malnutrition.</p><p>With sufficiently severe malnutrition, ambient exposures, including challenge by vaccination, will always be enough to cause large infant mortality, in the same way that prolonged droughts and high winds will always find sparks to start fires, whether from lightning or cooking fires or any other source. Likewise, history teaches us that it is difficult to have low mortality without a supply of water uncontaminated with protozoa and parasites from faecal matter.</p><p>In fact, frequency of exposure to virulent pathogens and parasites is overwhelmingly determined by sanitary conditions and access to non-contaminated water, historically (Cutler and Miller, 2004), and especially in low-income countries. Outbreaks of human diseases due to the waterborne parasitic protozoa (of faecal origin) continue to be common worldwide, and there is no systematic surveillance in the most affected low-income countries (Baldursson and Karanis, 2011). Resulting diarrhea is a leading cause of death in young children. Yet, access to non-contaminated water continues to be a major global problem (UN, 2019), while complex (cold chain, etc.), unproven (Section 4.1), constant universal and increasing vaccination programmes continue to be prioritized and imposed.</p><p>The same continuation and inaction is true of extreme poverty and so-called food insecurity crises (UN, 2023).</p><p>It is hypocritical and unconscionable for influential forces to coerce low-income countries to accept and implement universal infant vaccination programmes while impeding structural changes (i.e., development) that would eliminate chronic malnutrition, contaminated water, unsafe food storage, and urban slums (Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics et al., 2015; Fernandez and Hendrikse, 2020).</p><p>Not only are high-priority public-health resources lacking but the vaccination campaigns necessarily divert structural and staff resources away from the provision of rudimentary health and emergency services (Hendrickse, 1975; Dietz and Cutts, 1997), including the list provided by Jones et al. (2003). Diplomatic authors have referred to “efficacy versus effectiveness” and “vertical versus horizontal” health programmes, while admitting that the provisions of vaccination programmes are “controversial” (Clemens et al., 1996; Dietz and Cutts, 1997; Mills, 1983). Mostly, however, the question has recently become in-effect taboo.</p><h2>4.4 The hypothetical number of deaths (D0) that would occur from the presumed pathogen in the absence of presumed-beneficial vaccination is impossible to calculate</h2><p>The hypothetical number of deaths (D0, in Equation 1) that would occur from the presumed pathogen in the absence of presumed-beneficial vaccination against the presumed pathogen does not rely on any determination or assumed value of the presumed vaccine efficacy (Ev, in Equation 1). Rather, D0 is a theoretical number of deaths that the modeller believes would have occurred (counterfactual) or will occur (forecast) from a presumed pathogen of choice, in the absence of any vaccination for the said presumed pathogen, all other factors being retained.</p><p>Therefore, D0 is a theoretical number of deaths caused by a chosen presumed pathogen (e.g., the measles virus) which would have been entirely averted if one had magically made the said chosen presumed pathogen perfectly benign (disappeared), in the population and time period of interest, all other factors acting the same. While this is an elegant (and apparently enticing) thought experiment, it is incompatible with how death actually occurs. In reality, the deaths of concern are always complex non-linear events that involve several interacting contributing factors that do not have additive effects. This means that the effect of a given agent or condition depends on the presence of other agents or conditions contributing to the death (or survival). Removing one agent (the chosen presumed pathogen) does not leave the effects of the other agents and conditions unchanged. For example, there is a large body of work on the interactions (both positive and negative) between the primary cause of death that is nutritional deficiencies and ambient infections, as amply discussed in Section 4.3.</p><p>So, strictly speaking, it is impossible to calculate D0, and its very definition is incompatible with biological reality.</p><p>If the modeller nonetheless decides to ignore this fundamental difficulty and insists on calculating D0, then they are left with equally impossible tasks such as:</p><p>· estimating prevalence from tenuous field surveys using non-specific and incompletely validated molecular tests</p><p>· estimating infection fatality rates from tenuous clinical or epidemiological studies, not considering or knowing representative population-specific co-factors and comorbidities</p><p>· estimating prevalence from tenuous and not validated primitive so-called dynamic models of contagion or spread, which are in turn hypersensitive to unknown input parameters (such as infectious contact rates)</p><p>Insisting on calculating D0 and on using it in providing policy guidance for national and subnational populations is an ideological exercise, not a scientific one.</p><h1>5 The opposite is true: Independent studies show vaccination-programme-associated excess infant mortality</h1><h2>5.1 Correlative temporal analysis of global infant mortality rate and global vaccine coverage rollouts shows vaccine-rollout-associated excess infant mortality</h2><p>As shown above in Section 3 and Figure 1, my analysis of global infant mortality rate compared to global vaccine coverage rollouts shows that there are approximately 100 million vaccine-rollout-associated infant deaths, 1974-2024 worldwide, not deaths averted by the vaccines.</p><p>My conclusion that there is a global excess infant mortality associated with the global vaccine coverage rollouts is independent of clinical trials of vaccine safety and efficacy (Ev), and is independent of estimates of counterfactual mortality (D0) that would have occurred if presumed-beneficial vaccination interventions had not been implemented.</p><p>Rather, my estimate of a vaccine-rollout-associated global excess infant mortality instead relies on the directly observed and model-independent changes in actual infant mortality rate (panel A, Figure 1) occurring synchronously with major vaccine coverage rollouts (Figure 1). The observed infant mortality rate increases (i.e., positive changes in slope, or decelerated declines of infant mortality) at times of increasing vaccine coverage per year: in a first generation of vaccine rollouts, 1980-1990, and in a second generation of vaccine rollouts, 1990-2015 (Figure 1). Here, the deceleration in the decline of infant mortality is greater for the said second generation of vaccine rollouts, starting with hepatitis B and PCV (pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) vaccines in approximately 1992 (Figure 1). The important deceleration of decline in infant mortality is also apparent for low-income countries in the extensive quantitative work of Ahmad et al. (2000), regarding aged &lt; 5 years child mortality in the large regions of the world. The said deceleration was not explained, and is puzzling given the large potential for improvement, yet it occurs in the years of most vaccine coverage by the most vaccines.</p><p>The evident temporal correlation between deceleration of decline in infant mortality and increasing vaccine coverage with more vaccines (Figure 1) is an immediate epidemiological observation disregarded by all theoretical modelling researchers calculating presumed vaccine benefits on global infant mortality.</p><p>My necessarily positive quantitative estimate of approximately 100 million global excess infant deaths associated with the global vaccine coverage rollouts is obtained from the apparent gap between expected infant mortality rate linearly inferred from periods prior to the vaccine rollouts (green and purple line extrapolation scenarios in panel A, Figure 1) and the actual infant mortality rate (with implementation of the vaccine rollouts) (black solid line, panel A, Figure 1). The said gap is approximately 100 million infant deaths, 1974-2024, worldwide.</p><p>Here, my said “expected infant mortality rate linearly inferred from the period prior to the vaccine rollouts” is a counterfactual of infant mortality if the vaccines had not been implemented. Unlike the counterfactuals in the modelling papers of deaths averted by vaccination (Ls, Equation 1, Section 1), my counterfactual is based entirely on estimating the trend of continuously decreasing infant mortality from improving living conditions in the absence of vaccination. It does not rely on:</p><p>· assumptions about vaccine safety and efficacy (Ev), or</p><p>· dynamic models of contagion, or</p><p>· disease prevalence estimates, or</p><p>· seroprevalence and reported or tested cause-of-death studies.</p><p>The linear extrapolation scenarios that I consider (green and purple lines in panel A of Figure 1) are the simplest model-independent approach. Any resulting estimate needs to be adjusted for the saturating benefits of improving living conditions (actual infant mortality cannot be zero or negative).</p><p>An important caveat regarding my counterfactual using linear extrapolation is the following. The 1990s saw a spectacular increase in aggressive so-called globalization (economic predation), following the early 1990s dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR), continuing until today. This was accompanied by largescale unsafe industrial practices such as an accelerated use of the herbicide glyphosate and increases in vaccination programmes of all types (Rancourt, 2019). Health and mortality impacts in low-income countries from this hyper-globalization could have been varied and significant. See: Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics et al. (2015); Rancourt (2019). Similarly, there were large global structural financial adjustments and socioeconomic consequences in the 1980s following China’s joining of the World Bank in 1980 and so-called reform and opening-up (Committee et al., 2018: “The early 1980s marked the emergence of what now may be considered the modern era of homelessness.”). More on-point, poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa and inequity in Africa increased significantly in the 1980s (Sala-i-Martin and Pinkovskiy, 2010, their figures 5 to 10 and 12 to 14).</p><h2>5.2 Field observational studies show large vaccine-rollout-associated increased infant mortality in low-income countries</h2><p>It has been inconvenient for the vaccine industry that several repeated observational studies have shown a many-fold (up to 5-fold) increase in infant mortality with the introduction and administration of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine in low-income countries (Aaby et al., 2012, 2016, 2018; Mogensen et al., 2017).</p><p>This led to what can be called an organized attempted cover up by the WHO (see Aaby et al., 2016; and see Aaby et al., 2018 and Mogensen et al., 2017). It is not unusual for the WHO to work to systemically avoid acknowledging significant evidence of vaccine harm (Puliyel and Naik, 2018).</p><p>The said observational studies typically monitored all-cause deaths from first regular clinic visit for typically up to 3 years of age in both vaccinated and unvaccinated children within clinic catchment regions in a low-income country. The selection bias for vaccination is expected to be that the frailest are less vaccinated. Therefore, the expected result from this bias is that the vaccinated would have lower all-cause mortality but the opposite occurs, despite any presumed life-saving benefit from the DTP vaccination.</p><p>It is difficult not to conclude that DTP vaccination campaigns caused large increases in infant mortality in low-income countries, as indicated in Figure 1, to say nothing of unknown deleterious interactions between different vaccines.</p><h2>5.3 Correlative and comparative studies find systematic infant-vaccination-associated harm in high-income countries</h2><p>Contrary to notions of safety and efficacy of infant and childhood vaccinations, several authors having no industry interests report:</p><p>· a country-wise correlation between infant mortality rate and number of childhood vaccinations doses, in the wealthiest 30 or more countries (Goldman and Miller, 2023; Miller and Goldman, 2011)</p><p>· a correlation between hospitalization rates (and mortality rates) of infants and number of infant vaccination doses received, in the USA (national adverse-effect monitoring data) (Goldman and Miller, 2012)</p><p>· positive (vaccinated/unvaccinated) odds ratios for developmental delays, asthma, and ear infections, from USA clinic databases (Hooker and Miller, 2020)</p><h2>5.4 Limitations</h2><p>Main limitations on my estimate of approximately 100 million vaccine-programme-associated deaths, 1974-2024 worldwide (Section 5.1), are as follows:</p><p>1. The excess deaths are not necessarily directly caused by vaccine toxicity in frail infants, and may instead be due to harmful programmes or changes in existing programmes associated in time with the vaccine programme rollouts. For example, additional vaccine deployments may be associated with diverting structural and staff resources away from the provision of rudimentary health and emergency services. (See Rancourt, 2024, their section 3.3.6, regarding examples of vaccine-rollout-associated causes of death.)</p><p>2. The caveat expressed at the end of Section 5.1 regarding global transformations occurring in the 1980s and starting in the 1990s. These would have increased infant mortality (or slowed its decrease) via increases in poverty and in inequity, largely independently of vaccination programmes (Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics et al., 2015; Committee et al., 2018; Rancourt, 2019).</p><h1>6 Conclusion</h1><blockquote><p>“By glossing over the depth and complexity of the real issues involved and by relentless repetition, certain statements and concepts have acquired a quite unjustified credibility.”</p><p>(England, 1978)</p></blockquote><p>I started with the goal of exposing ludicrous theoretical modelling exercises in which the authors claim to calculate mortality averted by globally applied vaccination programmes, but what I discovered is that the longstanding industry of administering vaccination programmes to save infants in low-income countries from death is scientifically baseless and a fraudulent enterprise that removes resources and attention away from urgently needed development to correct ongoing mass neocolonial exploitation (Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics et al., 2015; Fernandez and Hendrikse, 2020).</p><p>There are essentially no policy-grade clinical trials of infant vaccine safety.</p><p>There are no vaccine toxicity controlled studies relevant to realistic field conditions where infants commonly have complex arrays of interacting conditions (predominantly nutritional deficiencies and many environmental stressors related to food-supply toxins, unsafe water, and virulent parasites, not to mention harsh atmospheric conditions and armed conflicts).</p><p>There are essentially no policy-grade clinical trials of vaccine efficacy, and vaccine efficacy has never been reliably demonstrated in observational or ecological studies free of design bias.</p><p>To my knowledge and until proven otherwise, there is no known example of a drop in measured infant or child mortality temporally associated with any rollout of a childhood vaccination campaign or initiation of a permanent childhood vaccination programme.</p><p>The overwhelming cause of high infant mortality is structurally imposed extreme poverty, associated with severe malnutrition and relentless exposures to challenges from toxic living environments. This cause is not being addressed. Structural financial exploitation is not being addressed.</p><p>In this context, the theoretical modelling papers are merely in-effect part of the problem.</p><p>Succinctly, my considered opinion is:</p><p>· Childhood vaccination has never been proven safe or effective</p><p>· There has never been a drop in infant or young-child mortality concomitant with or following a childhood vaccination campaign ― the opposite is true</p><p>· Childhood and infant health and mortality are overwhelmingly associated with development, stability, non-toxic environments, food safety and nutrition ― not vaccines</p><p>· The longstanding industry of infant vaccination programmes is a baseless fraudulent enterprise of exploitation</p><p>· The real issues of infant and population health are not being structurally addressed</p><p>· Interested counterfactual modelling is so contrived as to appear disingenuous and is in-effect part of the problem</p><p data-attrs='{"url":"https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}' data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" data-sanitized-class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://denisrancourt.substack.com/subscribe?" data-sanitized-class="button primary"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h1>Acknowledgements</h1><p>I would like to thank my past co-authors and collaborators since 2020 for many and continued discussions and challenges, and all the individuals who support our research.</p><h1>References</h1><p>Aaby et al. (2012): Aaby P, Benn C, Nielsen J, et al. /// Testing the hypothesis that diphtheria tetanuse pertussis vaccine has negative non-specific and sex-differential effects on child survival in high-mortality countries. /// <em>BMJ Open</em> 2012;2:e000707. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000707 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000707">https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000707</a></p><p>Aaby et al. (2016): Aaby, Peter; Ravn, Henrik; Benn, Christine S. /// The WHO Review of the Possible Nonspecific Effects of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine. /// <em>The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal</em> 35(11):p 1247-1257, November 2016. | DOI: 10.1097/INF.0000000000001269 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/inf.0000000000001269">https://doi.org/10.1097/inf.0000000000001269</a></p><p>Aaby et al. (2018): Aaby P, Mogensen SW, Rodrigues A, Benn CS /// Evidence of Increase in Mortality After the Introduction of Diphtheria–Tetanus–Pertussis Vaccine to Children Aged 6–35 Months in Guinea-Bissau: A Time for Reflection? /// <em>Front. Public Health</em> 2018, 6:79. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2018.00079 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2018.00079">https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2018.00079</a></p><p>Ahmad et al. (2000): Ahmad OB, Lopez AD, Inoue M. /// The decline in child mortality: a reappraisal. /// <em>Bull World Health Organ</em>. 2000;78(10):1175-91. PMID: 11100613; PMCID: PMC2560617. /// <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11100613/">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11100613/</a></p><p>Armstrong et al. (1999): Armstrong GL, Conn LA, Pinner RW. /// Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in the United States During the 20th Century. /// <em>JAMA</em>. 1999;281(1):61–66. doi:10.1001/jama.281.1.61 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.281.1.61">https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.281.1.61</a></p><p>Arrieta et al. (2014): Arrieta MC, Stiemsma LT, Amenyogbe N, Brown EM, Finlay B. /// The intestinal microbiome in early life: health and disease. /// <em>Front Immunol.</em> 2014 Sep 5;5:427. doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2014.00427. PMID: 25250028; PMCID: PMC4155789. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2014.00427">https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2014.00427</a></p><p>Auzenbergs et al. (2023): Auzenbergs M, Fu H, Abbas K, Procter SR, Cutts FT, Jit M. /// Health effects of routine measles vaccination and supplementary immunisation activities in 14 high-burden countries: a Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE) modelling study. /// <em>Lancet Glob Health</em>. 2023 Aug;11(8):e1194-e1204. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00220-6. PMID: 37474227; PMCID: PMC10369016. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00220-6">https://doi.org/10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00220-6</a></p><p>Bailey et al. (2015): Regan L. Bailey, Keith P. West Jr., Robert E. Black /// The Epidemiology of Global Micronutrient Deficiencies /// <em>Ann Nutr Metab</em> 1 June 2015; 66 (Suppl. 2): 22–33. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1159/000371618">https://doi.org/10.1159/000371618</a></p><p>Baldursson and Karanis (2011): Selma Baldursson, Panagiotis Karanis /// Waterborne transmission of protozoan parasites: Review of worldwide outbreaks – An update 2004–2010 /// <em>Water Research</em>, Volume 45, Issue 20, 2011, Pages 6603-6614, ISSN 0043-1354, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2011.10.013">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2011.10.013</a></p><p>Bekelman et al. (2003): Bekelman JE, Li Y, Gross CP. /// Scope and Impact of Financial Conflicts of Interest in Biomedical Research: A Systematic Review. /// <em>JAMA</em>. 2003;289(4):454–465. doi:10.1001/jama.289.4.454 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.289.4.454">https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.289.4.454</a></p><p>BGI Consulting (2007): BGI Consulting /// Methods: Counterfactual analysis /// <a href="https://www.bgiconsulting.lt/counterfactual-analysis">https://www.bgiconsulting.lt/counterfactual-analysis</a> (accessed on 4 January 2025)</p><p>Black et al. (2003): Black RE, Morris SS, Bryce J. /// Where and why are 10 million children dying every year? /// <em>Lancet</em>. 2003 Jun 28;361(9376):2226-34. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13779-8. PMID: 12842379. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13779-8">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13779-8</a></p><p>Brand and Siri (2024): Russell Brand, Aaron Siri /// Aaron Siri REVEALS the Shocking Truth Behind Vaccine Trials – SF509 (video, 1h28m) /// <em>Rumble</em>, 6 December 2024 livestream, Russell Brand channel (<a href="https://rumble.com/c/russellbrand">https://rumble.com/c/russellbrand</a>) /// <a href="https://rumble.com/v5wo69t-aaron-siri-reveals-the-shocking-truth-behind-vaccine-trials-sf509.html">https://rumble.com/v5wo69t-aaron-siri-reveals-the-shocking-truth-behind-vaccine-trials-sf509.html</a> (accessed on 5 January 2025, 304K views)</p><p>Carbone et al. (2008): Tracy Carbone, Betty McEntire, Dmitry Kissin, Dorothy Kelly, Alfred Steinschneider, Kimon Violaris, Nilima Karamchandani /// Absence of an Increase in Cardiorespiratory Events After Diphtheria-Tetanus-Acellular Pertussis Immunization in Preterm Infants: A Randomized, Multicenter Study. /// <em>Pediatrics</em>, May 2008; 121 (5): e1085–e1090. 10.1542/peds.2007-2059 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2007-2059">https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2007-2059</a></p><p>Carter et al. (2024): Austin Carter, William Msemburi, So Yoon Sim, Katy A.M. Gaythorpe, Philipp Lambach, Ann Lindstrand, Raymond Hutubessy /// Modeling the impact of vaccination for the immunization Agenda 2030: Deaths averted due to vaccination against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030 /// <em>Vaccine</em>, Volume 42, Supplement 1, 2024, Pages S28-S37, ISSN 0264-410X, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.07.033">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.07.033</a></p><p>Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics et al. (2015): Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics; Global Financial Integrity; Jawaharlal Nehru University; Instituto de Estudos Socioeconômicos; Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research /// REPORT: Financial Flows and Tax Havens: Combining to Limit the Lives of Billions of People /// Global Financial Integrity, December 2015 (136 pages) /// <a href="https://gfintegrity.org/report/financial-flows-and-tax-havens-combining-to-limit-the-lives-of-billions-of-people/">https://gfintegrity.org/report/financial-flows-and-tax-havens-combining-to-limit-the-lives-of-billions-of-people/</a> /// <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170420021029/https:/gfintegrity.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Financial_Flows-final.pdf">https://web.archive.org/web/20170420021029/https://gfintegrity.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Financial_Flows-final.pdf</a></p><p>Clemens et al. (1996): Clemens J, Brenner R, Rao M, Tafari N, Lowe C. /// Evaluating New Vaccines for Developing Countries: Efficacy or Effectiveness? /// <em>JAMA</em>. 1996;275(5):390–397. doi:10.1001/jama.1996.03530290060038 /// <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/395707">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/395707</a></p><p>Committee et al. (2018): National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Health and Medicine Division; Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice; Policy and Global Affairs; Science and Technology for Sustainability Program; Committee on an Evaluation of Permanent Supportive Housing Programs for Homeless Individuals. /// Appendix B, The History of Homelessness in the United States. /// In: <em>Permanent Supportive Housing: Evaluating the Evidence for Improving Health Outcomes Among People Experiencing Chronic Homelessness</em>. /// Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2018 Jul 11. /// Available from: <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK519584/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK519584/</a></p><p>Cutler and Miller (2004): Cutler, David M. and Grant Miller. /// The Role of Public Health Improvements in Health Advances: The 20th Century United States /// <em>National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)</em>, Working Paper 10511, DOI 10.3386/w10511, Issue Date May 2004 /// <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w10511">https://www.nber.org/papers/w10511</a> ||| also published here: <em>Demography</em> 42, 1(February 2005), 1-22, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0002">https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0002</a></p><p>Cutler et al. (2006): David Cutler, Angus Deaton and Adriana Lleras-Muney /// The Determinants of Mortality /// <em>Journal of Economic Perspectives</em>, Volume 20, Number 3, Summer 2006, Pages 97–120 /// DOI: 10.1257/jep.20.3.97 /// <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.20.3.97">https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.20.3.97</a></p><p>Cutts et al. (2020): F.T. Cutts, E. Dansereau, M.J. Ferrari, M. Hanson, K.A. McCarthy, C.J.E. Metcalf, S. Takahashi, A.J. Tatem, N. Thakkar, S. Truelove, E. Utazi, A. Wesolowski, A.K. Winter /// Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications /// <em>Vaccine</em>, Volume 38, Issue 5, 2020, Pages 979-992, ISSN 0264-410X, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.11.020">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.11.020</a></p><p>Dietz and Cutts (1997): Dietz V, Cutts F. /// The Use of Mass Campaigns in the Expanded Program on Immunization: A Review of Reported Advantages and Disadvantages /// <em>International Journal of Health Services</em>. 1997;27(4):767-790. doi: 10.2190/QPCQ-FBF8-6ABX-2TB5 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.2190/QPCQ-FBF8-6ABX-2TB5">https://doi.org/10.2190/QPCQ-FBF8-6ABX-2TB5</a></p><p>Echeverria-Londono et al. (2021): Echeverria-Londono, S., Li, X., Toor, J. et al. /// How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated? /// <em>BMC Public Health</em> 21, 2049 (2021). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-12040-9">https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-12040-9</a></p><p>Elisha et al. (2021): Ety Elisha, Josh Guetzkow, Yaffa Shir-Raz &amp; Natti Ronel ///</p><p>Retraction of scientific papers: the case of vaccine research /// <em>Critical Public Health</em>, 2021, DOI:</p><p>10.1080/09581596.2021.1878109 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09581596.2021.1878109">https://doi.org/10.1080/09581596.2021.1878109</a></p><p>England (1978): R England /// More myths in international health planning /// <em>American Journal of Public Health</em> 1978, 68, 153_159, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.68.2.153">https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.68.2.153</a></p><p>Fernandez and Hendrikse (2020): Rodrigo Fernandez, Reijer Hendrikse /// Chapter 19: Offshore Finance /// In book: <em>The Routledge International Handbook of Financialization</em> (pp.224-237) Publisher: Routledge, 2020, <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315142876-19/offshore-finance-rodrigo-fernandez-reijer-hendrikse">https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315142876-19/offshore-finance-rodrigo-fernandez-reijer-hendrikse</a> /// <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341106553_Offshore_Finance">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341106553_Offshore_Finance</a></p><p>Gaythorpe et al. (2021): Katy AM Gaythorpe, Kaja Abbas, John Huber, Andromachi Karachaliou, Niket Thakkar, Kim Woodruff, Xiang Li, Susy Echeverria-Londono, VIMC Working Group on COVID-19 Impact on Vaccine Preventable Disease, Matthew Ferrari, Michael L Jackson, Kevin McCarthy, T Alex Perkins, Caroline Trotter, Mark Jit /// Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries /// eLife 10:e67023, 2021. <a href="https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67023">https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67023</a></p><p>Goldman and Miller (2012): Goldman GS, Miller NZ. /// Relative trends in hospitalizations and mortality among infants by the number of vaccine doses and age, based on the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 1990-2010. /// <em>Hum Exp Toxicol.</em> 2012 Oct;31(10):1012-21. doi: 10.1177/0960327112440111. Epub 2012 Apr 24. Erratum in: Hum Exp Toxicol. 2012 Nov;31(11):1190. PMID: 22531966; PMCID: PMC3547435. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0960327112440111">https://doi.org/10.1177/0960327112440111</a> /// <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0960327112440111">https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0960327112440111</a></p><p>Goldman and Miller (2023): Goldman G S, Miller N Z /// Reaffirming a Positive Correlation Between Number of Vaccine Doses and Infant Mortality Rates: A Response to Critics. /// <em>Cureus</em> (February 02, 2023) 15(2): e34566. DOI 10.7759/cureus.34566 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.34566">https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.34566</a></p><p>Gombart et al. (2020): Gombart, A.F.; Pierre, A.; Maggini, S. /// A Review of Micronutrients and the Immune System–Working in Harmony to Reduce the Risk of Infection. /// <em>Nutrients</em> 2020, 12, 236. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nu12010236">https://doi.org/10.3390/nu12010236</a></p><p>Gøtzsche (2013): Peter Gøtzsche /// <em>Deadly Medicines and Organised Crime: How big pharma has corrupted healthcare</em> /// CRC Press: Taylor &amp; Francis Group, 2013, 310 pages, ISBN-13: 978-1-84619-884-7 (pbk).</p><p>Greenberg et al. (2025): Greenberg RG, Rountree W, Staat MA, et al. /// Apnea After 2-Month Vaccinations in Hospitalized Preterm Infants: A Randomized Clinical Trial. /// <em>JAMA Pediatr.</em>, Published online January 06, 2025. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2024.5311 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2024.5311">https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2024.5311</a></p><p>Hendrickse (1975): R.G. Hendrickse /// Problems of future measles vaccination in developing countries /// <em>Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene</em>, Volume 69, Issue 1, 1975, Pages 31–34, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0035-9203(75)90007-3">https://doi.org/10.1016/0035-9203(75)90007-3</a></p><p>Hendrickse (1997): R.G. Hendrickse /// Of sick turkeys, kwashiorkor, malaria, perinatal</p><p>mortality, heroin addicts and food poisoning: research on the influence of aflatoxins on</p><p>child health in the tropics /// <em>Annals of Tropical Medicine &amp; Parasitology</em>, 1997, 91:7, 787-793, DOI: 10.1080/00034983.1997.11813204 /// <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00034983.1997.11813204">http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00034983.1997.11813204</a></p><p>Hickey and Rancourt (2023a): Hickey J, Rancourt DG /// Predictions from standard epidemiological models of consequences of segregating and isolating vulnerable people into care facilities. /// <em>PLoS ONE</em> 2023, 18(10): e0293556. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293556">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293556</a></p><p>Hickey and Rancourt (2023b): Hickey J, Rancourt D G /// Viral Respiratory Epidemic Modeling of Societal Segregation Based on Vaccination Status. /// <em>Cureus</em> (December 14, 2023) 15(12): e50520. doi:10.7759/cureus.50520 /// <a href="https://www.cureus.com/articles/203723-viral-respiratory-epidemic-modeling-of-societal-segregation-based-on-vaccination-status#!/">https://www.cureus.com/articles/203723-viral-respiratory-epidemic-modeling-of-societal-segregation-based-on-vaccination-status#!/</a></p><p>Hooker and Miller (2020): Hooker BS, Miller NZ. /// Analysis of health outcomes in vaccinated and unvaccinated children: Developmental delays, asthma, ear infections and gastrointestinal disorders. /// <em>SAGE Open Medicine</em>. 2020;8. doi:10.1177/2050312120925344 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2050312120925344">https://doi.org/10.1177/2050312120925344</a> /// <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2050312120925344">https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2050312120925344</a></p><p>Horton (2004): Richard Horton /// The dawn of McScience /// <em>New York Review of Books</em>, 51, 2004, 7-9. /// <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160408195148/https:/www.nybooks.com/articles/2004/03/11/the-dawn-of-mcscience/">https://web.archive.org/web/20160408195148/https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2004/03/11/the-dawn-of-mcscience/</a></p><p>Humphries and Bystrianyk (2015): Suzanne Humphries, Roman Bystrianyk /// <em>Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and the Forgotten History</em> /// ISBN: 1480216895, ISBN-13: 978-1480216891 /// author copyrights 2013, 2015; 504 pages /// </p><p>https://dissolvingillusions.com/</p><p>ICAN (2017): Informed Consent Action Network /// ICAN letter to United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regarding shortcomings in vaccine safety: “Re: HHS Vaccine Safety Responsibilities and Notice Pursuant to 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-31” /// 12 October 2017 (with appendixes) (37 pages) /// <a href="https://icandecide.org/vaccine-safety-debate/">https://icandecide.org/vaccine-safety-debate/</a> /// <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220625000701/https:/www.icandecide.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/ICAN-HHS-Notice-1.pdf">https://web.archive.org/web/20220625000701/https://www.icandecide.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/ICAN-HHS-Notice-1.pdf</a> (accessed 2025-01-19)</p><p>Ioannidis (2005): Ioannidis JPA /// Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. /// <em>PLoS Med</em> 2005, 2(8): e124. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124</a></p><p>Ioannidis (2016a): Ioannidis, J.P.A. /// The Mass Production of Redundant, Misleading, and Conflicted Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses. /// <em>The Milbank Quarterly</em>, 2016, 94: 485-514. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0009.12210">https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0009.12210</a> /// <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27620683/">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27620683/</a></p><p>Ioannidis (2016b): Ioannidis, J.P.A. /// Evidence-based medicine has been hijacked: a report to David Sackett /// <em>Journal of Clinical Epidemiology</em>, 2016, Volume 73, 82 - 86 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.02.012">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.02.012</a></p><p>Ioannidis et al. (2022): John P.A. Ioannidis, Sally Cripps, Martin A. Tanner /// Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed /// International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 38, Issue 2, 2022, Pages 423-438, ISSN 0169-2070, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.004">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.004</a></p><p>Ioannidis et al. (2024): John P.A. Ioannidis, Angelo Maria Pezzullo, Antonio Cristiano, Stefania Boccia /// Global estimates of lives and life-years saved by COVID-19 vaccination during 2020-2024 /// <em>medRxiv</em> 2024.11.03.24316673; doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.11.03.24316673">https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.11.03.24316673</a> /// <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.03.24316673v2">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.03.24316673v2</a> (version 2)</p><p>Jones et al. (2003): Jones G, Steketee RW, Black RE, Bhutta ZA, Morris SS; Bellagio Child Survival Study Group. /// How many child deaths can we prevent this year? /// <em>Lancet</em>. 2003 Jul 5;362(9377):65-71. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13811-1. PMID: 12853204. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13811-1">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13811-1</a></p><p>Katoch (2022): Om Raj Katoch /// Determinants of malnutrition among children: A systematic review /// <em>Nutrition</em>, Volume 96, 2022, 111565, ISSN 0899-9007, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nut.2021.111565">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nut.2021.111565</a></p><p>Katona and Katona-Apte (2008): Peter Katona, Judit Katona-Apte /// The Interaction between Nutrition and Infection /// <em>Clinical Infectious Diseases</em>, Volume 46, Issue 10, 15 May 2008, Pages 1582–1588, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/587658">https://doi.org/10.1086/587658</a></p><p>Keeling and Rohani (2008): Keeling, Matt J., and Pejman Rohani /// <em>Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals </em>/// Princeton University Press, 2008, pp. 384. ISBN: 9780691116174. (Chapter Eight: Controlling Infectious Diseases, pp. 291-335.)</p><p>Keusch (2003): Keusch GT. /// The history of nutrition: malnutrition, infection and immunity. /// <em>J Nutr</em>. 2003 Jan;133(1):336S-340S. doi: 10.1093/jn/133.1.336S. PMID: 12514322. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/133.1.336s">https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/133.1.336s</a></p><p>Krauss (2018): Alexander Krauss /// Why all randomised controlled trials produce</p><p>biased results /// <em>Annals of Medicine</em>, 50:4, 312-322, DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2018.1453233 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07853890.2018.1453233">https://doi.org/10.1080/07853890.2018.1453233</a></p><p>Laforest-Lapointe and Arrieta (2017): Laforest-Lapointe I, Arrieta MC. /// Patterns of Early-Life Gut Microbial Colonization during Human Immune Development: An Ecological Perspective. /// <em>Front Immunol.</em> 2017 Jul 10;8:788. doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2017.00788. PMID: 28740492; PMCID: PMC5502328. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2017.00788">https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2017.00788</a></p><p>Lazarus et al. (2023): Lazarus, J.V., Wyka, K., White, T.M. et al. /// A survey of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 23 countries in 2022. /// <em>Nat Med</em> 29, 366–375 (2023). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-02185-4">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-02185-4</a></p><p>Lexchin et al. (2003): Lexchin J, Bero L A, Djulbegovic B, Clark O. /// Pharmaceutical industry sponsorship and research outcome and quality: systematic review /// <em>BMJ</em> 2003; 326 :1167 doi:10.1136/bmj.326.7400.1167 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.326.7400.1167">https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.326.7400.1167</a></p><p>Li et al. (2021): Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunubá ZM, Echeverria Londono S, Abbas K, Clapham HE, Jit M, Johnson HL, Papadopoulos T, Vynnycky E, Brisson M, Carter ED, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari MJ, Gamkrelidze I, Gaythorpe KAM, Grassly NC, Hallett TB, Hinsley W, Jackson ML, Jean K, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Lessler J, Li X, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Nguyen DM, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Sy S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran QM, Trotter CL, Truelove S, van Zandvoort K, Verguet S, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Garske T; Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium. /// Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study. /// <em>Lancet</em>. 2021 Jan 30;397(10272):398-408. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X. Erratum in: Lancet. 2021 Feb 20;397(10275):670. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00398-6. PMID: 33516338; PMCID: PMC7846814. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32657-x">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32657-x</a></p><p>Liu et al. (2016): Liu L, Oza S, Hogan D, Chu Y, Perin J, Zhu J, Lawn JE, Cousens S, Mathers C, Black RE. /// Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000-15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals. /// <em>Lancet</em>. 2016 Dec 17;388(10063):3027-3035. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31593-8. Epub 2016 Nov 11. Erratum in: Lancet. 2017 May 13;389(10082):1884. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31212-6. PMID: 27839855; PMCID: PMC5161777. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31593-8">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31593-8</a></p><p>Mangin et al. (2018): Mangin, D., Bahat, G., Golomb, B.A. et al. /// International Group for Reducing Inappropriate Medication Use &amp; Polypharmacy (IGRIMUP): Position Statement and 10 Recommendations for Action. /// <em>Drugs Aging</em> 35, 575–587 (2018). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40266-018-0554-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s40266-018-0554-2</a></p><p>McKinlay and McKinlay (1977): John B. McKinlay, Sonja M. McKinlaySource /// The Questionable Contribution of Medical Measures to the Decline of Mortality in the United</p><p>States in the Twentieth Century /// <em>The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society</em>, Vol. 55, No. 3 (Summer,1977), pp. 405-428 /// Published by: Wiley on behalf of Milbank Memorial Fund /// <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/3349539">http://www.jstor.org/stable/3349539</a></p><p>Mesa et al. (2023): Daniela Olivera Mesa, Peter Winskill, Azra C Ghani, Katharina Hauck /// The societal cost of vaccine refusal: A modelling study using measles vaccination as a case study /// <em>Vaccine</em>, Volume 41, Issue 28, 2023, Pages 4129-4137, ISSN 0264-410X, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.05.039">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.05.039</a></p><p>Miller and Goldman (2011): Miller NZ, Goldman GS. /// Infant mortality rates regressed against number of vaccine doses routinely given: is there a biochemical or synergistic toxicity? /// <em>Hum Exp Toxicol.</em> 2011 Sep;30(9):1420-8. doi: 10.1177/0960327111407644. Epub 2011 May 4. Erratum in: Hum Exp Toxicol. 2011 Sep;30(9):1429. PMID: 21543527; PMCID: PMC3170075. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0960327111407644">https://doi.org/10.1177/0960327111407644</a> /// <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0960327111407644">https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0960327111407644</a></p><p>Mills (1983): Anne Mills /// Vertical vs horizontal health programmes in Africa: Idealism, pragmatism, resources and efficiency /// <em>Social Science &amp; Medicine</em>, Volume 17, Issue 24, 1983, Pages 1971-1981, ISSN 0277-9536, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-9536(83)90137-5">https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-9536(83)90137-5</a></p><p>Mogensen et al. (2017): Mogensen SW, Andersen A, Rodrigues A, Benn CS, Aaby P. /// The Introduction of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis and Oral Polio Vaccine Among Young Infants in an Urban African Community: A Natural Experiment. /// <em>EBioMedicine</em>. 2017 Mar;17:192-198. doi: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2017.01.041. Epub 2017 Feb 1. PMID: 28188123; PMCID: PMC5360569. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2017.01.041">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2017.01.041</a></p><p>Mosley and Chen (1984): W. Henry Mosley and Lincoln C. Chen /// An Analytical Framework for the Study of Child Survival in Developing Countries /// <em>Population and Development Review</em>, Vol. 10, Supplement: Child Survival: Strategies for Research (1984), pp. 25-45 (21 pages), Published By: Wiley /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2807954">https://doi.org/10.2307/2807954</a></p><p>Olin et al. (2018): Axel Olin, Ewa Henckel, Yang Chen, Tadepally Lakshmikanth, Christian Pou, Jaromir Mikes, Anna Gustafsson, Anna Karin Bernhardsson, Cheng Zhang, Kajsa Bohlin, Petter Brodin /// Stereotypic Immune System Development in Newborn Children /// <em>Cell</em>, Volume 174, Issue 5, 2018, Pages 1277-1292.e14, ISSN 0092-8674 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.06.045">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.06.045</a></p><p>Puliyel and Naik (2018): Puliyel J and Naik P. /// Revised World Health Organization (WHO)’s causality assessment of adverse events following immunization—a critique [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]. /// <em>F1000Research</em> 2018, 7:243 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.13694.2">https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.13694.2</a></p><p>Rancourt (2019): Rancourt DG /// Geo-Economics and Geo-Politics Drive Successive Eras of Predatory Globalization and Social Engineering — Historical emergence of climate change, gender equity, and anti-racism as State doctrines /// Ontario Civil Liberties Association, 2 April 2019 (78 pages), OCLA Report 2019-1 | April 2019, <a href="https://ocla.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/OCLA_Report_2019-1.pdf">https://ocla.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/OCLA_Report_2019-1.pdf</a> /// <a href="https://archive.org/details/rancourt-geopolitics-and-globalization-report-1626881751104-ocla-report-2019-1">https://archive.org/details/rancourt-geopolitics-and-globalization-report-1626881751104-ocla-report-2019-1</a></p><p>Rancourt (2021): Rancourt, DG /// Do Face Masks Reduce COVID-19 Spread in Bangladesh? Are the Abaluck et al. Results Reliable? /// <em>denisrancourt.ca</em> (20 September 2021) /// <a href="https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=106">https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=106</a> - archived: <a href="https://archive.ph/yHbWO">https://archive.ph/yHbWO</a> - republished: <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/do-face-masks-reduce-covid-19-spread-bangladesh-abaluck-et-al-results-reliable/5756323?pdf=5756323">https://www.globalresearch.ca/do-face-masks-reduce-covid-19-spread-bangladesh-abaluck-et-al-results-reliable/5756323?pdf=5756323</a> /// <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/do-face-masks-work-in-bangladesh/">https://correlation-canada.org/do-face-masks-work-in-bangladesh/</a></p><p>Rancourt (2024): Rancourt, DG. /// Medical Hypothesis: Respiratory epidemics and pandemics without viral transmission. CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest, Report, 02 December 2024. <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/respiratory-epidemics-without-viral-transmission/">https://correlation-canada.org/respiratory-epidemics-without-viral-transmission/</a> /// also published as: Rancourt, D. G. Medical Hypothesis: Respiratory Epidemics and Pandemics Without Viral Transmission. <em>Preprints</em> 2024, 2024120480. <a href="https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202412.0480.v1">https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202412.0480.v1</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2022): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M. and Mercier, J. /// Proof that Canada’s COVID-19 mortality statistics are incorrect. /// <em>Correlation Research in the Public Interest</em>, 5 October 2022 /// <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/report-proof-that-canadas-covid-19-mortality-statistics-are-incorrect/">https://correlation-canada.org/report-proof-that-canadas-covid-19-mortality-statistics-are-incorrect/</a></p><p>Rancourt et al. (2023): Rancourt, D.G., Baudin, M., Hickey, J., Mercier, J. /// COVID-19 vaccine-associated mortality in the Southern Hemisphere /// <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em>, Report, 17 September 2023. <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality-in-the-Southern-Hemisphere/">https://correlation-canada.org/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality-in-the-Southern-Hemisphere/</a> /// also published as: Rancourt DG, Baudin M, Hickey J, Mercier J. “COVID-19 vaccine-associated mortality in the Southern Hemisphere”. <em>Journal of Research and Applied Medicine</em>, Vol.2 No.2 (July 2024), <a href="https://researchandappliedmedicine.com/revistas/vol2/revista2/canada-ingles.pdf">https://researchandappliedmedicine.com/revistas/vol2/revista2/canada-ingles.pdf</a> (English)</p><p>Rancourt et al. (2024): Rancourt DG, Hickey J, Linard C. /// Spatiotemporal variation of excess all-cause mortality in the world (125 countries) during the Covid period 2020-2023 regarding socio economic factors and public-health and medical interventions. /// <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em>, Report, 19 July 2024 (521 pages). <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries">https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries</a></p><p>Rancourt and Hickey (2023): Rancourt DG and Hickey J /// Quantitative evaluation of whether the Nobel-Prize-winning COVID-19 vaccine actually saved millions of lives /// <em>CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest</em>, Brief Report, 08 October 2023 (115 pages). <a href="https://correlation-canada.org/nobel-vaccine-and-all-cause-mortality/">https://correlation-canada.org/nobel-vaccine-and-all-cause-mortality/</a></p><p>Rodríguez et al. (2011): Rodríguez, L.; Cervantes, E.; Ortiz, R. /// Malnutrition and Gastrointestinal and Respiratory Infections in Children: A Public Health Problem. /// <em>Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health</em> 2011, 8, 1174-1205. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph8041174">https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph8041174</a></p><p>Roush et al. (2007): Roush SW, Murphy TV, Vaccine-Preventable Disease Table Working Group AT. /// Historical Comparisons of Morbidity and Mortality for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States. /// <em>JAMA</em>. 2007;298(18):2155–2163. doi:10.1001/jama.298.18.2155 /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.298.18.2155">https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.298.18.2155</a></p><p>Sala-i-Martin and Pinkovskiy (2010): Xavier Sala-i-Martin and Maxim Pinkovskiy /// African Poverty is Falling...Much Faster than You Think! /// National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 15775, February 2010, JEL No. O0,O1,O55 /// <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15775/w15775.pdf">https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15775/w15775.pdf</a></p><p>Scrimshaw (2003): Scrimshaw NS. /// Historical concepts of interactions, synergism and antagonism between nutrition and infection. /// <em>J Nutr</em>. 2003 Jan;133(1):316S-321S. doi: 10.1093/jn/133.1.316S. PMID: 12514318. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/133.1.316s">https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/133.1.316s</a></p><p>Scrimshaw et al. (1968): Scrimshaw, Nevin Stewart, Taylor, Carl Ernest, Gordon, John Everett &amp; World Health Organization /// Interactions of nutrition and infection / Nevin S. Scrimshaw, Carl E. Taylor, John E. Gordon ; prepared in consultation with seventeen specialists in various countries. /// World Health Organization, 1968, 329 pages, <a href="https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/41782">https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/41782</a></p><p>Shattock et al. (2024): Shattock AJ, Johnson HC, Sim SY, Carter A, Lambach P, Hutubessy RCW, Thompson KM, Badizadegan K, Lambert B, Ferrari MJ, Jit M, Fu H, Silal SP, Hounsell RA, White RG, Mosser JF, Gaythorpe KAM, Trotter CL, Lindstrand A, O'Brien KL, Bar-Zeev N. /// Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization. /// <em>Lancet</em>. 2024 May 25;403(10441):2307-2316. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X. Epub 2024 May 2. PMID: 38705159; PMCID: PMC11140691. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00850-x">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00850-x</a></p><p>Smith (2005): Smith R. /// Medical journals are an extension of the marketing arm of pharmaceutical companies. /// <em>PLoS Med.</em> 2005 May;2(5):e138. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020138. Epub 2005 May 17. PMID: 15916457; PMCID: PMC1140949. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020138">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020138</a></p><p>Stewart (2024): Ken Stewart /// significant figures /// <em>Britannica</em>, Science, Last updated: Dec 16, 2024 /// <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/significant-figures">https://www.britannica.com/science/significant-figures</a> (accessed 2025-01-22)</p><p>Toor et al. (2021): Jaspreet Toor, Susy Echeverria-Londono, Xiang Li, Kaja Abbas, Emily D Carter, Hannah E Clapham, Andrew Clark, Margaret J de Villiers, Kirsten Eilertson, Matthew Ferrari, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Timothy B Hallett, Wes R Hinsley, Daniel Hogan, John H Huber, Michael L Jackson, Kevin Jean, Mark Jit, Andromachi Karachaliou, Petra Klepac, Alicia Kraay, Justin Lessler, Xi Li, Benjamin A Lopman, Tewodaj Mengistu, C Jessica E Metcalf, Sean M Moore, Shevanthi Nayagam, Timos Papadopoulos, T Alex Perkins, Allison Portnoy, Homie Razavi, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Stephen Resch, Colin Sanderson, Steven Sweet, Yvonne Tam, Hira Tanvir, Quan Tran Minh, Caroline L Trotter, Shaun A Truelove, Emilia Vynnycky, Neff Walker, Amy Winter, Kim Woodruff, Neil M Ferguson, Katy AM Gaythorpe /// Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world /// <em>eLife</em>, 2021, 10:e67635. <a href="https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635">https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635</a></p><p>UN (2019): United Nations /// WWAP (UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme). 2019. /// The United Nations World Water Development Report 2019: Leaving No One Behind. /// Paris, UNESCO. (201 pages) /// <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000367306">https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000367306</a></p><p>UN (2023): United Nations /// Extreme Poverty in Developing Countries Inextricably Linked to Global Food Insecurity Crisis, Senior Officials Tell Second Committee: Delegates Warn Agriculture Sector Underdeveloped, Underfunded, Beset by Crises /// Five major reports presented: A/78/74, A/78/218, A/78/233, A/78/238, A/78/239 /// Seventy-eighth Session, 16th &amp; 17th Meetings (AM &amp; PM), GA/EF/3590, 11 October 2023 /// <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2023/gaef3590.doc.htm">https://press.un.org/en/2023/gaef3590.doc.htm</a> /// <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20231015114159/https:/press.un.org/en/2023/gaef3590.doc.htm">https://web.archive.org/web/20231015114159/https://press.un.org/en/2023/gaef3590.doc.htm</a></p><p>Verguet et al. (2015): Stéphane Verguet, Mira Johri, Shaun K. Morris, Cindy L. Gauvreau, Prabhat Jha, Mark Jit /// Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: A mathematical model to inform optimal policy /// <em>Vaccine</em>, Volume 33, Issue 10, 2015, Pages 1291-1296, ISSN 0264-410X /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.11.050">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.11.050</a></p><p>Watson et al. (2022): Watson OJ, Barnsley G, Toor J, Hogan AB, Winskill P, Ghani AC. /// Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study /// <em>Lancet Infect Dis.</em> 2022 Sep;22(9):1293-1302. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6. Epub</p><p>2022 Jun 23. Erratum in: Lancet Infect Dis. 2023 Oct;23(10):e400. PMID: 35753318;</p><p>PMCID: PMC9225255. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00320-6">https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00320-6</a></p><p>WHO (2019): World Health Organization /// Ten threats to global health in 2019 /// <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/spotlight/ten-threats-to-global-health-in-2019">https://www.who.int/news-room/spotlight/ten-threats-to-global-health-in-2019</a> (accessed on 14 January 2025) /// archived: <a href="https://archive.ph/zW17N">https://archive.ph/zW17N</a></p><p>Winter et al. (2022): Winter, Amy K;Lambert, Brian;Klein, Daniel;Klepac, Petra;Papadopoulos, Timos;Truelove, Shaun;Burgess, Colleen;Santos, Heather;Knapp, Jennifer K;Reef, Susan E;Kayembe, Lidia K;Shendale, Stephanie;Kretsinger, Katrina;Lessler, Justin;Vynnycky, Emilia;McCarthy, Kevin;Ferrari, Matthew;Jit, Mark /// Feasibility of measles and rubella vaccination programmes for disease elimination: a modelling study /// <em>Lancet Glob Health</em>. 2022, 10(10):e1412-e1422. <a href="https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/121808">https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/121808</a></p><p>Ygberg and Nilsson (2012): Ygberg, S. and Nilsson, A. /// The developing immune system – from foetus to toddler /// <em>Acta Paediatrica</em>, 2012, 101: 120-127. /// <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1651-2227.2011.02494.x">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1651-2227.2011.02494.x</a></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa76470b3-aac4-4237-9ff7-f895afb188a5_1280x657.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


title: Restoring Accountability to Policy-Influencing Positions Within the Federal Workforce
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: \��Fm�(Ý(�(��w
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02095/restoring-accountability-to-policy-influencing-positions-within-the-federal-workforce

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02095/restoring-accountability-to-policy-influencing-positions-within-the-federal-workforce


title: Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �����.fP��͒���
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02096/restoring-names-that-honor-american-greatness

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02096/restoring-names-that-honor-american-greatness


title: Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �^�¾{��S�v^�g��
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02097/ending-illegal-discrimination-and-restoring-merit-based-opportunity

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02097/ending-illegal-discrimination-and-restoring-merit-based-opportunity


title: Revocation of Certain Executive Orders
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �����Me���Nh�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02098/revocation-of-certain-executive-orders

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02098/revocation-of-certain-executive-orders


title: Designation of Ansar Allah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �����-id��X �p�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02103/designation-of-ansar-allah-as-a-foreign-terrorist-organization

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02103/designation-of-ansar-allah-as-a-foreign-terrorist-organization


author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ?Y��[/C!��FAÉ�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02116/declassification-of-records-concerning-the-assassinations-of-president-john-f-kennedy-senator-robert

title:
Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02116/declassification-of-records-concerning-the-assassinations-of-president-john-f-kennedy-senator-robert


title: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��g6��s�PE�Y�0h
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02121/presidents-council-of-advisors-on-science-and-technology

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02121/presidents-council-of-advisors-on-science-and-technology


title: Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: z��aq��EW�&�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02123/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02123/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology


title: Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: u;ʛQ�&D|r�D��*
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02172/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02172/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence


title: Council To Assess the Federal Emergency Management Agency
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �G����^�T��-��
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02173/council-to-assess-the-federal-emergency-management-agency

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02173/council-to-assess-the-federal-emergency-management-agency


author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: -�������a>*�x�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02174/emergency-measures-to-provide-water-resources-in-california-and-improve-disaster-response-in-certain

title:
Emergency Measures To Provide Water Resources in California and Improve Disaster Response in Certain Areas

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02174/emergency-measures-to-provide-water-resources-in-california-and-improve-disaster-response-in-certain


title: Prioritizing Military Excellence and Readiness
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: -pq�B}D= ��}s�.
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02178/prioritizing-military-excellence-and-readiness

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02178/prioritizing-military-excellence-and-readiness


title: Reinstating Service Members Discharged Under the Military's COVID-19 Vaccination Mandate
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �6�E㷁�VX��f�.
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02180/reinstating-service-members-discharged-under-the-militarys-covid-19-vaccination-mandate

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02180/reinstating-service-members-discharged-under-the-militarys-covid-19-vaccination-mandate


title: Protecting Children From Chemical and Surgical Mutilation
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �a���s���n�i[�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02194/protecting-children-from-chemical-and-surgical-mutilation

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02194/protecting-children-from-chemical-and-surgical-mutilation


title: Additional Measures To Combat Anti-Semitism
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: bU+]�U�M\ċL��
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02230/additional-measures-to-combat-anti-semitism

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02230/additional-measures-to-combat-anti-semitism


title: Ending Radical Indoctrination in K-12 Schooling
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: #ߙ49��e�ܕ�GU�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02232/ending-radical-indoctrination-in-k-12-schooling

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02232/ending-radical-indoctrination-in-k-12-schooling


title: Expanding Educational Freedom and Opportunity for Families
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ((>�M��9�h��S
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02233/expanding-educational-freedom-and-opportunity-for-families

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/03/2025-02233/expanding-educational-freedom-and-opportunity-for-families


title: Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��89���9k�����
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/06/2025-02345/unleashing-prosperity-through-deregulation

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/06/2025-02345/unleashing-prosperity-through-deregulation


title: Imposing Duties To Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: Ќ�Xtvr��$F��.
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/07/2025-02406/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-northern-border

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/07/2025-02406/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-northern-border


title: Imposing Duties To Address the Situation at Our Southern Border
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��;�p`��%ُ{ �W�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/07/2025-02407/imposing-duties-to-address-the-situation-at-our-southern-border

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/07/2025-02407/imposing-duties-to-address-the-situation-at-our-southern-border


title: Imposing Duties To Address the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People's Republic of China
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �U�S f$�I�J��7N
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/07/2025-02408/imposing-duties-to-address-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/07/2025-02408/imposing-duties-to-address-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china


title: A Plan for Establishing a United States Sovereign Wealth Fund
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: '_2 ��� �v���
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02477/a-plan-for-establishing-a-united-states-sovereign-wealth-fund

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02477/a-plan-for-establishing-a-united-states-sovereign-wealth-fund


title: Progress on the Situation at Our Northern Border
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: T�v���K�KM\"�J+�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02478/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02478/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border


title: Progress on the Situation at Our Southern Border
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: 7� �� �pFJl����
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02479/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-southern-border

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02479/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-southern-border


author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��75�rE�fl����
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02504/withdrawing-the-united-states-from-and-ending-funding-to-certain-united-nations-organizations-and

title:
Withdrawing the United States From and Ending Funding to Certain United Nations Organizations and Reviewing United States Support to All International Organizations

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02504/withdrawing-the-united-states-from-and-ending-funding-to-certain-united-nations-organizations-and


title: Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People's Republic of China
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �Y`���tu��}��
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/11/2025-02512/amendment-to-duties-addressing-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/11/2025-02512/amendment-to-duties-addressing-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china


title: Imposing Sanctions on the International Criminal Court
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �"�P��.�eD��%88�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/12/2025-02612/imposing-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/12/2025-02612/imposing-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court


title: Addressing Egregious Actions of the Republic of South Africa
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: b�M��H-S�*�Dg昕
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/12/2025-02630/addressing-egregious-actions-of-the-republic-of-south-africa

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/12/2025-02630/addressing-egregious-actions-of-the-republic-of-south-africa


title: Establishment of the White House Faith Office
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: e�H��M�N�Q7�@m
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/12/2025-02635/establishment-of-the-white-house-faith-office

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/12/2025-02635/establishment-of-the-white-house-faith-office


title: Eliminating the Federal Executive Institute
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: "�D�ZC�d!W�ȶ
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02734/eliminating-the-federal-executive-institute

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02734/eliminating-the-federal-executive-institute


title: Ending Procurement and Forced Use of Paper Straws
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �x��r|���p@�3S
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02735/ending-procurement-and-forced-use-of-paper-straws

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02735/ending-procurement-and-forced-use-of-paper-straws


author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��g^�7���e���V
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02736/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-to-further-american-economic-and-national-security

title:
Pausing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Enforcement To Further American Economic and National Security

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02736/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-to-further-american-economic-and-national-security


author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �Y �tV>m!�h�A
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02762/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-workforce-optimization-initiative

title:
Implementing the President's "Department of Government Efficiency" Workforce Optimization Initiative

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/14/2025-02762/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-workforce-optimization-initiative


title: One Voice for America's Foreign Relations
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: *���\@�q�U �ฎ
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/18/2025-02841/one-voice-for-americas-foreign-relations

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/18/2025-02841/one-voice-for-americas-foreign-relations


title: Establishing the President's Make America Healthy Again Commission
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��x�D I����i
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/19/2025-02871/establishing-the-presidents-make-america-healthy-again-commission

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/19/2025-02871/establishing-the-presidents-make-america-healthy-again-commission


title: Establishing the National Energy Dominance Council
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ���~򇱱05h��0�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/20/2025-02928/establishing-the-national-energy-dominance-council

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/20/2025-02928/establishing-the-national-energy-dominance-council


title: Keeping Education Accessible and Ending COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates in Schools
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��������NR���
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/20/2025-02931/keeping-education-accessible-and-ending-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-in-schools

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/20/2025-02931/keeping-education-accessible-and-ending-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-in-schools


title: Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �Ԟd��q0�ܺ68��F
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/24/2025-03063/ensuring-accountability-for-all-agencies

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/24/2025-03063/ensuring-accountability-for-all-agencies


title: Expanding Access to In Vitro Fertilization
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ,���%��f;��J3o
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/24/2025-03064/expanding-access-to-in-vitro-fertilization

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/24/2025-03064/expanding-access-to-in-vitro-fertilization


title: Commencing the Reduction of the Federal Bureaucracy
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ��'���l���ʂ��t
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/25/2025-03133/commencing-the-reduction-of-the-federal-bureaucracy

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/25/2025-03133/commencing-the-reduction-of-the-federal-bureaucracy


title: Ending Taxpayer Subsidization of Open Borders
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ͍ߺ��x��k:��%V
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/25/2025-03137/ending-taxpayer-subsidization-of-open-borders

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/25/2025-03137/ending-taxpayer-subsidization-of-open-borders


author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: �q _�ݤG��vV�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/25/2025-03138/ensuring-lawful-governance-and-implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency

title:
Ensuring Lawful Governance and Implementing the President's "Department of Government Efficiency" Deregulatory Initiative

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/25/2025-03138/ensuring-lawful-governance-and-implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency


title: Addressing the Threat to National Security From Imports of Copper
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: r����{f?�0�/���
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/28/2025-03439/addressing-the-threat-to-national-security-from-imports-of-copper

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/28/2025-03439/addressing-the-threat-to-national-security-from-imports-of-copper


author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ݆� F�q H�=⭸e�
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/28/2025-03440/making-america-healthy-again-by-empowering-patients-with-clear-accurate-and-actionable-healthcare

title:
Making America Healthy Again by Empowering Patients With Clear, Accurate, and Actionable Healthcare Pricing Information

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/28/2025-03440/making-america-healthy-again-by-empowering-patients-with-clear-accurate-and-actionable-healthcare


title: Implementing the President's "Department of Government Efficiency" Cost Efficiency Initiative
author: ;Executive Office of the President
hash: ^4��w@��UU��
attributes: {"enclosures":[]}
guid:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/03/03/2025-03527/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-cost-efficiency-initiative

link:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/03/03/2025-03527/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-cost-efficiency-initiative


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/talking-iran-on-the-deep-dive
title: Talking Iran on the "Deep Dive"
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/talking-iran-on-the-deep-dive
hash: z��Kx����/p㏏?w
content:
<p>On 17 January 2025, I talked with Lt. Col. Danny Davis (ret.) on his podcast — the “Deep Dive.” We focused much attention on Iran, to include relations between Iran and Russia, and the possibility of an Israeli or US-Israeli attack on Iran. We also talked about the war in Ukraine and Israel’s troubles in Gaza.</p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"z7qEoNCZltY","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-z7qEoNCZltY" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/z7qEoNCZltY?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/z7qEoNCZltY","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/where-will-trump-take-the-us
title: Where Will Trump Take the US?
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/where-will-trump-take-the-us
hash: ݁V�� H��o�_�>
content:
<p>On 17 January 2025, I appeared on “The Duran” with Glenn Diesen and Alexander Mercouris, where we talked about what President Trump is likely to do on the foreign policy front.</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/where-will-trump-take-the-us">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/VIT8NLC80Bc","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/gloom-and-doom-with-the-judge
title: Gloom &amp; Doom with the Judge
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/gloom-and-doom-with-the-judge
hash: �GF gA{Ԅ����
content:
<p>On 23 January 2025, I spoke with Judge Napolitano on his podcast, “Judging Freedom.”</p><p>As usual, we covered  the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, paying special attention to what President Trump is likely to do. As usual, it was a gloomy but hopefully insightful conversation for viewers. </p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"g3lMq9Txxqo","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-g3lMq9Txxqo" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/g3lMq9Txxqo?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/g3lMq9Txxqo","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/israel-and-the-threat-to-free-speech
title: Israel &amp; the Threat to Free Speech
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/israel-and-the-threat-to-free-speech
hash: 1[ ���q ��
content:
<p>On 24 January 2025, I was on Glenn Greenwald’s evening show — “System Update.”</p><p>We talked at length about the situation in the Middle East and what the coming of the Trump administration is likely to mean for Israel and the broader region. Very importantly, we talked at the end of the show about the threat the Israel lobby presents to free speech in the US, as it works overtime to shut down any criticism of Israel and the US-Israeli relationship.  </p><p><a href="https://rumble.com/v6d3kep-system-update-show-396.html">https://rumble.com/v6d3kep-system-update-show-396.html</a></p><div data-sanitized-class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe30b0c8-2603-4b0a-b22d-3fe7e52ae248_1024x576.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" data-sanitized-class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img"><div data-sanitized-class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe30b0c8-2603-4b0a-b22d-3fe7e52ae248_1024x576.png" width="1024" height="576" data-attrs='{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/be30b0c8-2603-4b0a-b22d-3fe7e52ae248_1024x576.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":576,"width":1024,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":844031,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false}' alt="" fetchpriority="high" data-sanitized-class="sizing-normal"></picture><div data-sanitized-class="image-link-expand"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></div><div data-sanitized-class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe30b0c8-2603-4b0a-b22d-3fe7e52ae248_1024x576.png","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/russia-vs-ukraine-and-the-west-who
title: Russia vs. Ukraine &amp; the West: Who Has a Firmer Grip on Reality?
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/russia-vs-ukraine-and-the-west-who
hash: �e� �֧,e�9�
content:
<p>On 29 January 2025, Lt. Col (ret.) Danny Davis and I talked on his podcast “Deep Dive” about how the Russians think about the war in Ukraine compared to how the Ukrainians and the West think about that conflict. We were especially interested in how the thinking on each side influences the chances of getting a meaningful peace agreement. Unsurprisingly, we both believe that the Russians have a much firmer grip on reality, which does not bode well for achieving a peaceful resolution of the war.</p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"7D6bHKLuU6g","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-7D6bHKLuU6g" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/7D6bHKLuU6g?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/7D6bHKLuU6g","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/donald-trump-wants-another-nakba
title: Donald Trump Wants Another Nakba
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/donald-trump-wants-another-nakba
hash: #�U��&�fӡ�����
content:
<p>On 30 January 2025, I spoke with Steve Clemons on his Al Jazeera show: “The Bottom Line.” We talked about the Israeli genocide in Gaza, the stunning concessions Israel made to Hamas in the recent ceasefire agreement, and President Trump’s morally reprehensible commitment to help Israel drive all the Palestinians out of Gaza.</p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"Fhnd3-IWlSY","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-Fhnd3-IWlSY" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Fhnd3-IWlSY?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/Fhnd3-IWlSY","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/talking-the-world-with-piers-morgan
title: Talking the World with Piers Morgan
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/talking-the-world-with-piers-morgan
hash: .���8v�6�A�V �
content:
<p>On 27 January 2025, I did a long interview on “Piers Morgan Uncensored.” </p><p>We zeroed in on Gaza and Ukraine and talked about where those conflicts are today and what is likely to happen in each one now that Donald Trump has replaced Joe Biden in the White House. Neither one of us could tell an optimistic story. </p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"PqReoPJfFwA","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-PqReoPJfFwA" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/PqReoPJfFwA?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/PqReoPJfFwA","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/trumps-troubles-ahead-with-israel
title: Trump's Troubles Ahead with Israel and Ukraine
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/trumps-troubles-ahead-with-israel
hash: tP�x�+ |�M'�ɻ8
content:
<p>On 30 January 2025, I talked to Judge Napolitano on “Judging Freedom” about the difficulties President Trump faces in trying to create a stable Middle East and shut down the Ukraine War. </p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"VfJ_-sZ7ybI","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-VfJ_-sZ7ybI" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/VfJ_-sZ7ybI?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/VfJ_-sZ7ybI","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/talking-israel-with-the-judge
title: Talking Israel with the Judge
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/talking-israel-with-the-judge
hash: ItV�i����� qӚ
content:
<p>On 4 February 2025, I was on Judge Napolitano’s show talking about Trump’s policies toward Israel and Ukraine. This was just before Trump announced his plan to have the U.S. military conduct another Nakba and then turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” So we did not discuss this ludicrous and profoundly immoral plan the president dreamed up. That will have to wait until my next appearance.</p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"K4gqGvhWJb4","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2-K4gqGvhWJb4" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/K4gqGvhWJb4?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/K4gqGvhWJb4","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


guid: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/trying-to-make-sense-of-trumps-foreign
title: Trying to Make Sense of Trump's Foreign Policy
author: ;John J. Mearsheimer
link: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/trying-to-make-sense-of-trumps-foreign
hash: t�m{V�`7�5�A���
content:
<p>On 12 February 2025 I was interviewed by Freddy Gray on the “Americano” podcast, which is run by <em>The Spectator</em>, a prominent British magazine.</p><p>Freddy and I talked about Trump’s foreign policy at a general level and then zeroed in on Gaza and Ukraine. We tried to make sense of what Trump is doing, recognizing full well that he has only been president for a little over three weeks.</p><div data-attrs='{"videoId":"-yfNdkeStoo","startTime":null,"endTime":null}' data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" data-sanitized-id="youtube2--yfNdkeStoo" data-sanitized-class="youtube-wrap"><div data-sanitized-class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-yfNdkeStoo?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe></div></div><p></p>

attributes:
{"enclosures":[{"url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/-yfNdkeStoo","type":"image/jpeg","length":0}]}


